Weather! Severe weather threat today and tomorrow

A tornado watch is active until 8pm tonight. We’ve got severe weather threats both today and tomorrow; once we get past this, the weekend is looking bright and sunny!

April 27, 2011; 3:14 PM • by Weather Dan

A feature that is a little unexpected this early in the year – a Bermuda high – is one of the big factors in our current weather situation. Combined with a broad area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the upper plains, and a nearly stationary system across the Gulf Coast states, this setup has been responsible for a very busy past couple of days for people living from Alabama to Arkansas and Texas.

Fortunately for them (and unfortunately for those living east), this system has started moving eastward, shifting the severe weather threats eastward as well. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of Virginia, excepting the Hampton Roads area, as under either a slight or moderate risk for severe weather today.

Along with that, the SPC has issued a tornado watch for the counties between I-95 and the eastern Blue Ridge until 8pm tonight.

Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the low 80s as a cloud deck this morning has broken up, and dewpoints remain in the 70s, providing plenty of moisture for storms to initiate. High temperatures for Wednesday should peak soon in the mid 80s within the next couple hours as storms have already begun firing to the south and west of town. The Storm Prediction Center has stated in the watch that they don’t expect a high likelihood of tornadoes from storms within the watch area; despite that, the risk of an isolated tornado exists. The primary threats with this system will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

As the severe weather clears out later tonight, low temperatures will drop into the upper 60s.

Squirrelcast (vs. Trenton, 6:35pm): We’ve got fireworks after the game tonight, but fireworks are possible both before and during the game as well. As with last night, isolated storms will develop and pass through the region, providing the occasional heavy downpour or lightning strike around The Diamond. Game-time temperatures will be near 80, dropping into the lower 70s at the ninth inning, with a scattered rain delay in between.

The severe threat continues on Thursday, with the SPC targeting the area long and east of I-95 with another slight risk.

A cold front sweeping across the east will be the impetus for the severe weather both today and tomorrow. The severe weather threat will diminish from west to east tomorrow as the cold front advances. The system advancing tomorrow will be a linear event, with a line of rain and storms crossing the region tomorrow, and the possibility exists for some isolated cells to develop in advance of the front. Temperatures tomorrow will remain warm and humid ahead of the front, reaching 80 before dropping off later in the day. Overnight lows will reach the lower 50s.

Squirrelcast (vs. Trenton, 10:35am): It’s another round of morning baseball with the Squirrels, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the tarp doesn’t come off the field for quite a while. Assuming they’re able to get the game off on time, plan on humid, overcast conditions with first pitch temperatures will be in the mid 70s, rising to near 80 by game’s end. Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow morning and will likely disturb if not delay the game entirely.

Looking ahead to the weekend: can you say mid 70s and sunny? Even if you can’t, the weekend is looking great! I’ll have an update Friday morning.

April 27, 2011 3:14 PM 1