Weather! More rain and wind; severe weather threat Monday evening

Monday’s temperatures will SOAR and reach the upper 70s to near 80. Winds will pick up this afternoon in advance of a cold front associated with this low, which will swing through during the late afternoon/evening hours; thunderstorms will form in front of this boundary beginning in the evening hours, and could very well be severe.

February 28, 2011; 8:27 AM • by Weather Dan

We picked up 0.62” of rain over Thursday and Friday, making a bit of a dent in our rainfall deficit, but we’re still about two and a half inches short since the beginning of the year. We’re looking at more rain chances on Monday.

An area of low pressure setting up across the plains will swing eastward over the next 24 hours, pulling a cold front with it. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of Virginia as an area with a slight risk of severe weather on Monday. The primary threats with this system will be linear fast-moving thunderstorms with damaging winds and the potential for an isolated tornado.

Low pressure moving towards the Ohio Valley will give us a similar setup to last Thursday night/Friday morning; southwesterly flow near the surface will pull in some very warm, very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, allowing temperatures to SOAR and reach the upper 70s to near 80. Winds will pick up this afternoon in advance of a cold front associated with this low, which will swing through during the late afternoon/evening hours; thunderstorms will form in front of this boundary beginning in the evening hours, and could very well be severe. The primary threat with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain, but there’s also the possibility for an isolated tornado. Keep your eyes on the sky and keep your NOAA Weather Radio. handy today and into the evening hours. There’s a good likelihood that some of these storms will form after dark, so please exercise caution when you’re out tonight. With estimated rainfall to be anywhere between one-half to one inch expected with these storms in a very short amount of time, the opportunity for flash flooding exists along creeks, streams, and streets. Please also remember not to drive through flood waters, especially at night – there’s no way to judge how deep the water is, how fast it is moving, or what the floodwaters have washed away. It’s cheesy, but it’s true — turn around, don’t drown. Temperatures will drop down to about 40 overnight tonight following the frontal passage.

High pressure comes back into the picture for both Tuesday and Wednesday, along with some cooler temperatures. Clear skies both days will allow temperatures to reach the low 50s on Tuesday, and climb into the low 60s by Wednesday. A friend of mine lamented the complete passage of “spring hoodie season;” it looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will both be prime hoodie days. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s both nights.

This clear weather will continue through most of the week; another system similar to this one looks to be setting up across the plains for this coming weekend. I’ll be back on Thursday with a complete update.

February 28, 2011 8:27 AM 0