Reaction: George Mason joins the Atlantic 10
A year ago, it was the Atlantic 10’s patience and pragmatism that made them the biggest winners of conference realignment. But this week’s addition of George Mason is frantic and underwhelming.
It happened Sunday afternoon in the midst of the finale of one of the greatest seasons in the history of the Atlantic 10 conference. Butler, La Salle, St. Louis, Temple, and VCU had started the 2013 NCAA tournament a combined perfect 6-0, but 13th-seeded La Salle was the only remaining team, and they were just a few hours away from tipping off with 12th-seeded Ole Miss. It broke on twitter: George Mason will join the A-10 effective July 1st.
One year ago, it was the Atlantic 10’s patience and pragmatism that made them the biggest winners of conference realignment outside of the ACC and Big 10. Less than 365 days later, the addition of George Mason is frantic and underwhelming.
Butler and Xavier’s departure have been rumored for months, but weren’t official until March 20th. Upon hearing the rumors, the Atlantic 10 needed to ask themselves two questions: 1) Does the conference need more teams? 2) If so, who does the conference add?
Does the conference need more teams (now)?
VCU joined the Atlantic 10 knowing that Temple and Charlotte were departing the conference after the 2012-13 season. The departures of 3rd place Butler and 6th place Xavier come as a surprise, but it is a reminder that conference realignment is far from done.
With twelve solid teams and a sixteen game schedule, the Atlantic 10 should have played this season and waited for conference realignment to work itself out in the ACC, Big 10, Old Big East, and New Big East. TV deals and money talk, and unfortunately, the Atlantic 10 is below those conferences in the pecking order.
This is the era of more and faster in college basketball. More and faster transfers through graduate transfer rules, more and faster hiring and firing, and more and faster realignment. If it was patience that made the A-10 a winner the first time around, then why are they hastily adding George Mason?
Lack of football is a limiting factor for the Atlantic 10. The A-10 built itself into the elite basketball-first conference, but they now split the bill with the Big East (Catholic 7). The Atlantic 10 isn’t going to be able to attract a football-first program, but waiting for a season or two at twelve teams could have enabled the conference to add that fit better than George Mason.
[The addition of George Mason] will put us at 13 member institutions which quite frankly is still a large conference. I think I’ve made the comment before that the number of institutions is not necessarily the be all and end all but it’s really what institutions make up the Atlantic 10. Atlantic 10 commissioner Bernadette McGlade
If so, who does the conference add?
When rumors swirled one year ago, George Mason was frequently listed alongside Butler and VCU as an addition to the A-10, but the Patriots ended up not making the move. Like Butler in 2010 and 2011, and VCU in 2011, George Mason took March by storm by making a surprise trip to the Final Four in 2006. Unlike Butler and VCU, George Mason has slid to mediocrity and they no longer have the coach that led them through the tournament.
George Mason
| Season | Coach | Record | Conference Finish | Postseason | RPI | SOS | KenPom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13* | Hewitt | 19-14 (10-8) | 5th | CBI | #138 | #163 | 139th |
| 2011-12 | Hewitt | 24-9 (14-4) | 3rd | None | #80 | #189 | 106th |
| 2010-11 | Larranaga | 27-7 (16-2) | 1st | NCAA 3rd round | #25 | #97 | 28th |
| 2009-10 | Larranaga | 17-15 (12-6) | 4th | CIT 1st round | #163 | #167 | 166th |
| 2008-09 | Larranaga | 22-11 (13-5) | 2nd | NIT 1st round | #51 | #119 | 88th |
| 2007-08 | Larranaga | 23-11 (12-6) | 3rd | NCAA 1st round | #64 | #150 | 94th |
| 2006-07 | Larranaga | 18-15 (9-9) | T-5th | None | #129 | #154 | 96th |
| 2005-06 | Larranaga | 27-8 (15-3) | T-1st | NCAA Final 4 | #18 | #79 | 23rd |
| 177-90 (101-43) | #84 | #140 | 92nd |
* Still in progress.
Butler under coach Brad Stevens
| Season | Conference | Record | Finish | Postseason | RPI | SOS | KenPom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | A-10 | 27-9 (11-5) | T-3rd | NCAA 3rd round | #19 | #28 | 44th |
| 2011-12 | Horizon | 22-15 (11-7) | T-3rd | CBI semifinal | #110 | #122 | 110th |
| 2010-11 | Horizon | 28-10 (13-5) | T-1st | NCAA Runner-up | #22 | #41 | 41st |
| 2009-10 | Horizon | 33-5 (18-0) | 1st | NCAA Runner-up | #7 | #40 | 12th |
| 2008-09 | Horizon | 26-6 (15-3) | 1st | NCAA 1st round | #24 | #96 | 45th |
| 2007-08 | Horizon | 30-4 (16-2) | 1st | NCAA 2nd round | #20 | #152 | 32nd |
| 166-49 (84-22) | NCAA 12-5 | #34 | #80 | 47th |
VCU under coach Shaka Smart
| Season | Conference | Record | Finish | Postseason | RPI | SOS | KenPom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | A-10 | 27-9 (12-4) | 2nd | NCAA 3rd round | #24 | #42 | 16th |
| 2011-12 | CAA | 29-7 (15-3) | 2nd | NCAA 3rd round | #40 | #146 | 40th |
| 2010-11 | CAA | 28-12 (12-6) | 4th | NCAA Final 4 | #31 | #61 | 52nd |
| 2009-10 | CAA | 27-9 (11-7) | 5th | CBI Champions | #47 | #141 | 49th |
| 111-37 (50-20) | NCAA 7-3 | #36 | #98 | 39th |
This season, George Mason finished fifth in the CAA with a conference record of 10-8. The CAA ranked 24th in conference RPI, a far cry from 2011 when it ranked 8th. The Atlantic 10 finished 7th this season. Compared to the rest of the Atlantic 10, George Mason ranks 14th in RPI and 14th on KenPom. Only the top twelve teams even travel to Brooklyn for the conference tournament.
| Finish | Team | Record | RPI | KenPom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Saint Louis | 28-7 (13-3) | #18 | 17th |
| 2nd | VCU | 27-9 (12-4) | #24 | 16th |
| 3rd | Butler | 27-9 (11-5) | #19 | 44th |
| 3rd | Temple | 24-10 (11-5) | #39 | 61st |
| 3rd | La Salle | 24-9 (11-5) | #30 | 46th |
| 6th | Massachusetts | 21-12 (9-7) | #59 | 87th |
| 6th | Xavier | 17-14 (9-7) | #79 | 80th |
| 8th | Charlotte | 21-12 (8-8) | #71 | 129th |
| 8th | Saint Joseph’s | 18-14 (8-8) | #97 | 78th |
| 8th | Richmond | 19-15 (8-8) | #87 | 83rd |
| 11th | George Washington | 13-17 (7-9) | #136 | 108th |
| 11th | Dayton | 17-14 (7-9) | #109 | 67th |
| 11th | St. Bonaventure | 14-15 (7-9) | #126 | 119th |
| 14th? | George Mason | 20-14 (?) | #138 | 139th |
| 14th | Fordham | 7-24 (3-13) | #221 | 252nd |
| 14th | Rhode Island | 8-21 (3-13) | #193 | 189th |
| 16th | Duquesne | 8-22 (1-15) | #218 | 242nd |
If not GMU, then who?
Wichita State
A week ago, luring the Shockers away from the Missouri Valley Conference would have been near impossible, but Creighton joins Butler and Xavier as the most recent schools to defect for the Big East. Wichita State doesn’t have football and they have developed quite a rivalry with VCU over the past three seasons. The Shockers would expand the footprint of the conference and add a very high quality basketball team. As an added bonus, 9th-seeded Wichita State faces 13th-seeded La Salle (also A-10) in the Sweet Sixteen on Thursday night.
Unorthodox arrangements
The conference formerly known as the Big East is becoming Conference-USA 2.0. Now a twelve team conference, four programs are out of place in basketball because of their football programs. It may seem unorthodox, but pursuing Connecticut, Temple, Cincinnati, and/or Memphis as basketball only members or as members in all sports other than football would be mutually beneficial.
Where does this leave VCU?
Since going to the Final Four in 2011, coach Smart has proven it wasn’t a fluke by turning VCU into a perennial NCAA tournament contender. With new practice facilities in the works, better recruiting, and better fundraising, the program as a whole is on the rise. The Big East wanted VCU but supposedly Georgetown shot down the idea.
No one knows what the landscape will look like in three years, but two things are for sure: 1) if VCU stays in the A-10, the conference will be loaded with cash from exit fees and forfeited NCAA tournament units, and 2) if the Rams decide to eventually leave the A-10, they are too attractive to get left behind in conference realignment.
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Aaron Williams
Aaron Williams loves music, basketball (follow @rvaramnews!), family, learning, and barbecue sauce.
Notice: Comments that are not conducive to an interesting and thoughtful conversation may be removed at the editor’s discretion.
I can not possibly explain how dumb this article is. So I won’t.
What are your thoughts on the rumors that Siena could join thr conference this year?
Fear. Siena’s five year average on KenPom is 171.8 and their four year average for RPI is 189.5.
I don’t think it will happen. My bigger fear is Coach Rhoades replacing Mitch Buonaguro at Siena: http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/Siena-interviews-two-4387026.php
This article is just really, really bad.
The author makes the case for Wichita State, “a very high quality basketball team.” But using the same standards as GMU, there’s not much difference. According to the article, GMU is 178-90 in the last eight seasons. The author doesn’t bother including the Shocker’s 180-91 record in the same span. Statistically the same.
Next the author plugs George Mason into the 2013 A-10 final standings. But it was already noted that the A-10’s RPI ranked 7th and while the CAA ranked 24th. So of course GMU falls at the bottom of the A-10 when ranked by RPI. If GMU had played an A-10 schedule, by definition it’s RPI would be MUCH higher. It is strength of schedule that determines RPI. By using this metric, the author is comparing apples vs. oranges.
Comparing GMU to Butler and VCU is pointless. Yes, VCU and Butler are better programs; that’s why they were invited to the A-10. GMU was third in that race, no question. But they were a better fit than other programs, and that’s why the A-10 was in talks with GMU last year, and why they were instantly invited this year.
I won’t even bother replying to the A-10 “pursuing Connecticut, Temple, Cincinnati, and/or Memphis,” except to say, it just isn’t happening. None of those programs would accept. Nor would the A-10 want those programs; the A-10 self-identifies as a basketball-centric conference. Even though you stipulate “basketball-only members,” the A-10 would have none of that.
Is GMU better than St. Louis, Butler, Temple and Xavier? No. Is GMU the best program available to the A-10, last season, this season, or even next season? Yes.
George Mason’s strength of schedule would be higher, but their RPI would only be higher if they won a significant number of games. George Mason finished 10-8 in the CAA this year, how many A-10 games could they have actually won?
Wichita State’s record is comparable, but they have upward trajectory unlike George Mason. They would also add an entirely new market while strengthening the western half of the Atlantic 10.
Also, the author makes a point of GMU’s eight-year average KenPom score of 92. Wichita State’s eight-year average KenPom score is 62. Better? Yes. But to say that the addition of GMU is “underwhelming” and that the addition of WSU is a “very high quality” team is quite a difference for a 30-point KenPom score.
One last point: Wichita State is a horrible fit for the geographical fit of the A-10. And that’s before St. Louis leaves (assuming they leave along with Dayton next year). Really, look at a map; if the A-10 loses those two teams, Duquesne University in Pennsylvania is the most western situated program on the map. Seriously, look at a map. Find Kansas City, then look at the nine A-10 programs on the East Coast, the one in NY and the one in PA. Wichita State doesn’t fit geographically. There’d be no A-10 rivalry, and the travel costs for basketball and all their other sports would be tremendous.
I’ll finish by saying I’m a big fan of the MVC (and the A-10, btw). But in the last eight years, GMU is 4-4 versus the MVC. And those were the top teams in the Valley (Creighton, Wichita State, Northern Iowa). And in the last eight years (four, really), GMU is 4-2 versus the A-10.
To quote a daily New York paper,
“Bringing the Patriots, who will officially join the league on July 1, aboard was the logical, and much-needed, next step. For starters, they fit the A-10’s desired mold of a basketball-centered athletics program with an impressive recent track record. The Patriots have averaged 22 wins over the last eight seasons and have made three of the program’s six trips to the NCAA Tournament in that time, including their historic run to the 2006 Final Four under then-coach Jim Larranaga.
While not quite in the same breath as a Butler or Xavier, they’ve been one of the more consistent, and talked about, “mid-majors” over the last several seasons, matching many of the top A-10 schools in terms of postseason success.
Then, too, the addition gives the league a second team in the metro Washington, D.C. area — George Mason is located in Fairfax, Va. — creating a natural rivalry with George Washington, and allows the Patriots to resume their battles with former CAA foes Richmond and Virginia Commonwealth.
Yes, in just about every regard, this was the best move the league could have made.”
Meanwhile, a website that “love[s] Richmond” is hyping a Kansas City team over a team merely 100 miles from Richmond, with an existing rivalry versus a Richmond school. (VCU and GMU had already agreed to play each other the next four seasons before GMU became a part of the CAA.)
You’re ignoring the first part of the article where I say the A-10 should have stayed at 12 teams for now…
I agree that there was need to do this now. There is nothing definite that St Louis and Dayton will be leaving at all. St Louis fans in Brooklyn were adamant about this. I don’t think Temple and Memphis are going to want to be in this football league after Conn and Cincy leave. Both could put their football in the MAC as Temple has been doing. I don’t understand Siena at all?
GO RAMS!!
Being a Richmond native as well as a recent graduate of George Mason, this article only reaffirms my overwhelming hate for VCU fans and how arrogant they have become in the last couple of years. The notion that Wichita St would be a good fit for the ATLANTIC 10 is rediculous and something that school would never consider because of the travel costs and complete lack of a geographical rival. It would make much more sense for St. Louis to move to the MVC, which I think they will end up doing. Mason’s new President is committed to building our athletic program and brand much like VCU did following their Final Four, unlike our former President who used all the noterity and financial gain to build new dorms and clutter the campus more than it already was. Adding Davidson, while they would still be a geographic outlier, would much more sense in everyway, because they are losing the Charlotte market and the SoCon is falling apart as fast as the CAA. Iona would also be a logical addition based on their success and location.
this is doo doo shite
David,
The “Renamed Big East” is proof that geography has little bearing on conference affiliation these days. Houston, UConn, USF, and Cincinnati aren’t exactly neighbors. Boise St. and San Diego State were even committed to join the Big East!
I also don’t agree with your oversimplification of using Final 4 success. VCU is building at an unprecedented rate while also improving the basketball program. GMU had upward trajectory until they lost Larranaga, hopefully VCU can continue to hold onto Smart.
George Mason fans say this will “re-energize” the program. The fact that the program needs to be “re-energized” is why I wrote this article in the first place.
Everybody views the “Old Big East” as a joke… It’s be like Kansas joining the ACC.
VCU has taken full advantage of its Final Four success by improving its facilities and making a commitment to their basketball program. George Mason seemed to forget why they became famous in the first place until a couple of days ago. You made the case that George Mason doesn’t to deserve to be in the A10 and that the conference was dumb for bringing them in.
Aaron, I’m “not ignoring the first part of the article where I say the A-10 should have stayed at 12 teams for now.” I’m retorting the second part of the article where you argue that Wichita State is far and away a better choice than GMU. And I’m doing it using your own metrics.
“The ‘Renamed Big East’ is proof that geography has little bearing on conference affiliation these days. Houston, UConn, USF, and Cincinnati aren’t exactly neighbors. Boise St. and San Diego State were even committed to join the Big East!”
Aaron, apples and oranges. Football programs are expanding without regard to geography, to pick up the most money possible in television contracts. This model is not being embraced by basketball-centric conferences like the A-10.
“GMU had upward trajectory until they lost Larranaga.” My goodness, man. Paul Hewitt, who I would argue is a much worse coach than Larranaga, has 24 wins at GMU last year and 21 this year. And this is a rebuilding year, as was clearly the case before the season began. GMU has one senior on this year’s squad. One. Who played a total of 6 minutes the entire season. GMU’s starting lineup is 3 juniors and 2 sophomores. GMU’s three key bench players are two freshman and a sophomore.
The basis of this article is that the addition of GMU was “frantic and underwhelming.” That is unsubstantiated (by your own variables), incorrect, and flies in the face of not just the A-10, but just about every sports outlet and major media. You are entitled to your opinion, but journalism requires one to back up that opinion.
Sir, I’ve been really careful about not using personal attacks on what is a poorly argued column. But your digging in and being obstinate on every point made by a commenter makes me wonder how you got into journalism in the first place.
“Unlike Butler and VCU, George Mason has slid to mediocrity [since their Final Four appearances].”
And yet, in VCU’s last three seasons in the CAA (as far back as you cite), VCU went a combined 38-16 in league play, GMU went a combined 42-12. I’m not sure how GMU playing better against the same opponents qualifies as mediocre while VCU, with a slightly inferior record made the A-10 the “biggest winners of conference realignment.”
It’s an editorial piece. I stated an opinion and backed it up with facts. While I don’t share your opinions, I am thoroughly enjoying this conversation (I love talking about sports). I am sorry if you feel that my journalistic integrity has been diminished.
“That is unsubstantiated (by your own variables), incorrect, and flies in the face of not just the A-10, but just about every sports outlet and major media.”
Look at the tables. I didn’t even have to use words to substantiate my opinions. Also, it’s not my job to agree with other sports outlets. I stated an opinion and backed it up with facts. Feel free to disagree, but I’m not going to lose any sleep over non-conformity.
Do I really think WSU, UConn, Temple, Memphis, or Cincinnati will join the A-10? Probably not, but I do think they would be better additions than GMU and I don’t see the harm in mentioning them.
I agree, George Mason will be better next season. Sherrod Wright is a player capable of earning all conference honors next season – his shot against VCU last season was pretty killer too. That being said, they finished 10-8 in the CAA this year. I don’t believe they could have finished 7-9 or better in the A-10 which is what they would have needed to finish above 14th place. George Mason will have to make major improvements this offseason if they want to compete next season in the A-10.
“Unlike Butler and VCU, George Mason has slid to medicrity [since their Final Four appearances].”
You can’t disagree with this statement by using seasons from BEFORE the Final 4. In their only season in the CAA after the Final 4, VCU finished 15-3 despite having the 9th youngest team in the nation. The 2012 Rams lost 61% of their scoring, 51% of rebounding, 68% of assists, and 58% of minutes from the Final 4 team but still managed to get within two points of retuning to the Sweet 16. VCU finished with a school record 29 wins in a rebuilding year.
I’m sorry. I didn’t realize the debate had switched to if VCU was a better team than GMU. They are.
Back to your original premise (or actually, your changing retorts). You don’t believe GMU could have finished 7-9 or better in the A-10. Well, I do. GMU went 2-0 against the A-10 this season, including a win against Richmond (8-8 in the A-10) in Richmond. And the last three seasons, GMU went 3-1 against VCU in the regular season. Go ahead and add two losses in the CAA tournament held in Richmond, and that is still 3-3, with only 2 of those games in Fairfax, VA. Seems to me that if George Mason doesn’t make major improvements this offseason, they will still compete in the A-10.
Look, I understand that you are a VCU fan, and that’s where you are coming from. But there was a reason the A-10 courted both teams last year, and one season later when GMU “slummed” at 22-16 (RPI-123, KenPom 131, and a better SOS in spite of the CAA’s rapid descent) hardly changes the picture.
This article is so stupid and biased towards VCU!! GMU will always be a better school than VCU, just look at the rankings!!!