Weather! More rain chances ahead

After yesterday’s gloomy conditions (sorry about that, Valerie!), we only registered 0.02″ of rain at the airport. Luckily for us, with another day brings another chance of rain.

May 12, 2010; 12:05 PM • by Weather Dan

After yesterday’s gloomy conditions (sorry about that, Valerie!), we only registered 0.02” of rain at the airport. Luckily for us, with another day brings another chance of rain.

The good news is that the clouds are gone, and we surpassed Tuesday’s high temperature (61) at 4am this morning. Skies are clearing, temperatures are climbing, and Wednesday should be quite the improvement over Tuesday. High temperatures today will top out today in the low 80s; the decreased clouds and light breeze will be the story of the day. Despite that, we’re already seeing some high clouds build back in from the west.

HOWEVER…

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe weather for the region this afternoon.

The forecast soundings I’ve been reviewing this morning have been looking marginal at best; there’s some limiting factors that may minimize our chances for thunderstorms this afternoon, but I certainly can’t rule it out. A large area of energy is going to cross the Appalachians this afternoon, and it’s hard to tell exactly how much of that will remain intact after crossing the mountains, but if it does, we’ll see a small-scale thunderstorm complex develop over most of the region. The caveat here is that the Storm Prediction Center hasn’t been great at forecasting severe weather for the Mid-Atlantic over the last few weeks; the last two Slight Risk days have produced virtually no thunderstorms. That being said, the forecasters at the SPC tends to be right far more often than they are wrong.

Tonight, temperatures won’t fall off much, dropping to near 60 overnight. The moist airmass is going to stick around for a bit, as the front that will be passing through the area Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front sticks around south of the region.

For Thursday, some of the clouds and a chance of more rain will stick around. Temperatures Thursday only rebound into the mid 70s, though the rain threat will diminish into the afternoon. A light breeze persists as the atmosphere dries out a bit Thursday night, and lows dip back to near 60.

The cold front does an about-face and passes back through the area heading north on Friday, as temperatures soar to near 90, bringing another chance of thunderstorms and the potential for an afternoon/evening shower. If you’re making plans for either Riverrock or the Strawberry Hill Races on Saturday, if you survive the occasional shower Friday night, you’re looking at party cloudy skies and highs near 80. I’ll have a full update Friday morning.

May 12, 2010 12:05 PM 1