Weather! More hot weather, little relief in sight
We actually set not one, not two, but three(!) temperature records between Wednesday night and Thursday. Wednesday night’s low of 76 broke the old record warm minimum temperature of 74, set in 1996. Thursday’s high of 102 broke the old record of 100 degrees, set in 1948. Overnight Thursday night, we set another record warm […]
We actually set not one, not two, but three(!) temperature records between Wednesday night and Thursday. Wednesday night’s low of 76 broke the old record warm minimum temperature of 74, set in 1996. Thursday’s high of 102 broke the old record of 100 degrees, set in 1948. Overnight Thursday night, we set another record warm minimum of 78, breaking the record of 74 set in 1909. That’s right, we only got to 78 last night. There’s a little bit of relief for this weekend, but we’ll be back to near-record heat by Sunday.
In the tropics, Invest 93L is currently an area of thunderstorms off the coast of Honduras in the Caribbean Sea. It has begun organizing in the last 12 hours, and the National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance for development in the next 48 hours. Forecast models still vary greatly in terms of intensity, but most of them have the system tracking across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. It’s still too early to tell exactly what’s going to happen with this system, but it certainly bears watching, especially as it approaches the Gulf and the activity around the Deepwater Horizon location.
For this weekend, the heat doesn’t break much. A cold front approaches the area Friday, though honestly, its a bit of a misnomer. There’s not much cold air behind this boundary. Temperatures are a bit more balmy for Friday, sticking to the low 90s. Hot and humid is still the story, but we get a slight break from the 100-degree temperatures of Thursday. There’s a small chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, and overnight temperatures will fall into the low 70s.
The cold front turns around and returns through the area as a warm front on Saturday, turning the setting on the RVA oven back to London broil. Saturday highs climb into the mid 90s, falling into the mid 70s overnight. Some relatively stable air behind the warm front means that the threat for any sort of precipitation is even smaller.
Sunday sees temperatures climb back into the upper 90s, bordering on 100 yet again. Overnight lows fall into the mid 70s. The heat and humidity, combined with more unstable air, make for another threat of isolated storms on Sunday.
It’s going to be a hot weekend – enjoy it! Before you know it, we’ll be under two feet of snow again. I’m not ready for that yet, are you? I’ll have another full update, including a continued look at the tropics, on Monday.
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Weather Dan
Dan Goff is now a two-time former Richmonder, having departed the River City yet again in favor of southwest Virginia, where he is working on degrees in geography and meteorology at Virginia Tech. Have a question about the weather or weather-related phenomena?
Notice: Comments that are not conducive to an interesting and thoughtful conversation may be removed at the editor’s discretion.
Of note: an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has just departed Keesler AFB in Mississippi to investigate 93L.
It’s summertime, bring on the heat!!
Information sent back from the Hurricane Hunters recon flight this afternoon has led the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Invest 93L to Tropical Depression One. Here’s the first advisory posted by the NHC. If the NHC forecast holds, this system should strengthen into a Tropical Storm tomorrow before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. If it does intensify, it will be named Tropical Storm Alex.
For the latest information, advisories and forecast maps, you can find information at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
…FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN…
SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT…2200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI…555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 600 PM EDT…2200 UTC…THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST…AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…EASTERN GUATEMALA…AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.