Weather! Keep the umbrella around

For Wednesday, rainfall associated with a stationary front parked just off the Virginia coast, coupled with a trough near the mountains, will dominate Wednesday’s weather. In advance of expected periods of possibly heavy rain, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of the eastern 2/3 of the state.

September 29, 2010; 7:43 AM • by Weather Dan

The rain moved out earlier than expected on Tuesday, and left Richmond with partly cloudy skies and warmer-than-expected temperatures.

Unfortunately, it also meant that we got shortchanged on the rainfall. The total for Sunday-Tuesday was only 0.32”. (At my house here in Christiansburg, we picked up 2.03”.) The annual rainfall deficit for the city sits at over 10.5” inches now, but we’ve got another opportunity to pick up some more rain over the next couple days.

What is currently Tropical Depression Sixteen is trying to get organized in the Caribbean Sea near Cuba. It’s a pretty ragged-looking system (as most Tropical Depressions are), and is expected to lose its tropical characteristics before it reaches the Mid-Atlantic. However, it still looks to be quite the rainmaker.

Here’s the forecast track for TD 16:

As you can see, this system is going to be a fast mover, and will be creating some havoc in the area within the next 36 hours. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting rainfall amounts of up to 5 inches in some locations along the east coast of the US over the next 3 days.

Before Sixteen gets here, we’ve got some other factors at play that will make the next two days slightly less than enjoyable.

For Wednesday, rainfall associated with a stationary front parked just off the Virginia coast, coupled with a trough near the mountains, will dominate Wednesday’s weather. In advance of expected periods of possibly heavy rain, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of the eastern 2/3 of the state.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON…POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT…WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN REGION ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA…HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS.

* THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE WHERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES HAD FALLEN. THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY MAY CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE QUICKLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. MOTORISTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODED ROADS…WHICH SHOULD NEVER BE CROSSED.

In a word, Wednesday’s forecast will be: wet. Not much temperature change will take place through the day, with highs only climbing into the low 70s before dropping back into the mid 60s overnight. Skies will vary between mostly cloudy and overcast, before becoming completely overcast as the rain moves in, likely to be heavy at times.

On Thursday, the subtropical version of Sixteen will travel northward along the stationary front, bringing some possibly gusty winds and more periods of heavy rain. The exact track of the system will determine who sees the most rain, but right now, Richmond’s looking like a pretty good target. Highs will hit the mid 70s (and may go even higher if the low tracks farther to the easy, keeping rainfall and cloudcover down a bit). Lows Thursday night will again fall into the low 60s.

The silver lining on all this is that high pressure will move back into the region by the weekend, giving us fall-like temperatures in the low 70s and partly cloudy skies for most of the weekend. I’ll have the forecast for this weekend, along with some hopeful rainfall news, on Friday.

September 29, 2010 7:43 AM 0