Weather! Hot, humid, storm chances the next two days
Well, the good news is that our streak of storms only on Thursdays may be broken. The bad news is that it’s because we’re looking at an early-week severe weather threat this week.
Well, the good news is that our streak of storms only on Thursdays may be broken. The bad news is that it’s because we’re looking at an early-week severe weather threat this week.
First, in the tropics, what was Tropical Depression 5 has tracked southward back into the Gulf of Mexico. It’s in an area that is marginally favorable for development, but the National Hurricane Center currently is giving it a 60% chance for development. The Hurricane Hunters are going to make a reconnaissance flight into the area this afternoon, and that will give us a better picture about what is happening with the system.
We’re back to hot, hot, hot, for Monday in Richmond. High pressure is moving offshore again, and the winds are no longer out of the heat. Temperatures are already into the low 90s, and with dewpoints in the low 70s, the heat index is rapidly approaching 100 under mostly sunny skies. A cold front currently situated across the Appalachians is approaching from the northwest, and will be our primary feature for at least the first part of this week. Clear skies today in advance of the cold front will allow temperatures to soar well into the 90s, before a trough advancing ahead of the front causes some instability late this afternoon, leading to an increase in cloudcover and the chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed central and northern Virginia under a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon, with the chance for damaging winds and periodic heavy rain. Lows this evening will fall into the low 70s, as the rain threat continues til sunset.
The front is going to take its sweet time crossing the mountains, meaning we’re looking at a similar setup for Tuesday. It will slowly approach the region on Tuesday, but not before temps are allowed to climb back into the low 90s before we start seeing convection and scattered showers/thunderstorms again. The timing of storms will depend on the location of the front; the closer it is, the earlier in the day we will see storm initiation begin. Lows Tuesday night should again fall into the low 70s, with the chance for storms running into the twilight hours.
The threat of storms looks to continue into Wednesday – I’ll be back with an update on the rain chances, along with the status of ex-TD 5, then.
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Weather Dan
Dan Goff is now a two-time former Richmonder, having departed the River City yet again in favor of southwest Virginia, where he is working on degrees in geography and meteorology at Virginia Tech. Have a question about the weather or weather-related phenomena?
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