After ending the month of April more than 1.59″ of rain in the hole, we’re now already 1.12″ below the average for May and back under the total yearly average as well.
After ending the month of April more than 1.59 inches of rain in the hole, we’re now already 1.12” below the average for May and back under the total yearly average as well. The US Drought Monitor has listed most of the eastern Carolinas as “Abnormally Dry;” Elizabeth City, NC is more than 5 inches below the yearly average to date. Thankfully, in Richmond, we’re only about an inch under where we should be, but if the dry pattern continues for a few more weeks, we may be approaching that Abnormally Dry category as well.
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for the next 30 days keeps us near average for both temperatures and precipitation, so we may not totally break the pattern we’re in, but I’m hoping we won’t fall any farther behind.
Looking to the short term, Monday is looking to be quite the stunner. The cool temperatures we experienced Sunday will stick around; the light winds we’re seeing this morning will persist through the day today, as highs approach the upper 60s with relatively clear skies. The clouds will increase a bit tonight, as the next system approaches, and temperatures tonight fall into the mid 40s.
Things get interesting beginning on Tuesday. There’s still a bit of divergence among some of the models, but a low pressure system that is bringing some serious severe weather to the plains Monday will bring a warm air mass into the area from the SW, increasing both clouds and the chance for rain. Unfortunately, there’s very low confidence that we’ll see much in the way of precipitation; if it does rain, we won’t see anything more than about 0.25” of rain. The clouds we’ll see along with the warm front will keep temperatures down Tuesday, with highs spending another day in the upper 60s. The clouds persist Tuesday night as the front clears the area, and the low temperatures only dip into the upper 50s to near 60 overnight.
There’s a lingering threat for some showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm on Wednesday, as temperatures return to the upper 70s. I’ll have a full update then.