The week ahead: Cranking up the thermostat again; Richmond Marathon forecast

Looking forward to the Richmond Marathon? Are you tired of the cold? Would you love a day where the high temperature was 70 degrees? Then have I got a forecast for you!

No, you’re not going to have to crank the heat up yet again – in fact, you can probably give it a break for the better part of the next week.

But first – the Richmond Marathon kicks off in a little less than 18 hours. Fall weather in the Mid-Atlantic is notoriously fickle, but the conditions for this year’s races are looking absolutely incredible. Warm temperatures, sunny skies, and low humidity – who could ask for much more?

Temperatures will be at their coldest just around sunrise (6:44 AM on Saturday), so expect to see a temperature around 37 when the 8k takes off at 7:00. From there, temperatures will climb steadily, reaching 55 by 10:00 and 65 by 1:00 PM. Sunny skies will keep the runners company the entire way along the course, and dewpoints in the 30s mean that it will feel anything but humid all day long. In fact, for many, it may feel a bit on the “too dry” side. Plan appropriately.

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As for the rest of the week ahead:

A look at the model temperature guidance tells a lot of the story – temperatures are going to climb heartily this weekend and Monday. We’ve been stuck in a period of below-average high temperatures that has lasted since late October. The 30-year average high temperature for November 9 is 64 degrees; we haven’t seen 64, much less the actual average high for any day, since we hit 67 back on October 27.

The difference now is that there’s a big dome of high pressure sitting over the southeastern US. That is what’s responsible for keeping all the clouds away, and that’s what is responsible for funneling in the warm air we’re going to be enjoying over the next several days.

The high will begin to slide up the coast on Monday and Tuesday, allowing some clouds to begin to return. A cold front is expected to develop and work its way east over the next several days, arriving in central Virginia late Monday night. Indications right now are that it will begin to lose some of its energy and moisture as it works eastward. That said, we won’t be completely dry, either. Showers look possible for most of the day Tuesday before beginning to dry out again.

Another ridge of high pressure will move back in behind the front starting Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Temperatures will return to nearly seasonable levels, with highs running in the 50s into next weekend and lows at or above freezing. Early indications are that we’ll see this pattern continue into next weekend as well.

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Weather Dan

Dan Goff is now a two-time former Richmonder, having departed the River City yet again in favor of southwest Virginia, where he is working on degrees in geography and meteorology at Virginia Tech. Have a question about the weather or weather-related phenomena?

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