RVANews

VCU: A microcosm of the season

Aaron Williams — Fri, 25 Mar 2016 13:28:52 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

VCU's season ended Sunday afternoon in Oklahoma City in an 85-81 NCAA Tournament heartbreaker to Oklahoma, after a furious double-digit comeback. In many ways, the game was a microcosm of the season.

Just like VCU's slow 5-5 start in November and December, the Rams trailed 21-7 after the opening minutes and memories of Michigan in 2013 haunted hopes of any comeback. VCU looked outmanned in every facet of the game. The Sooners turned the paint into a no-fly zone, their transition defense was dominant, and they threw up an alley-oop and a couple of impressive dunks.

But then an unlikely lineup, including the fearless Doug Brooks and the almost forgotten Michael Gilmore, sparked the Rams. Brooks hit two 3-pointers and went after Buddy Hield--the favorite for national player of the year. Brooks hadn't hit a 3-pointer since February 19th and Sunday was his best game since hitting four 3-pointers and defending now NBA star D'Angelo Russell in the 2015 NCAA Tournament.

Michael Gilmore was even better. He slammed an early alley-oop from JeQuan Lewis and started grabbing rebounds when the rest of VCU couldn't even buy a board. The surprise lineup cut the lead to five points, but Mo Alie-Cox spent too much of the first half on the bench with one foul and Oklahoma entered the locker room with a 13-point lead. But like the December loss to Cincinnati, the Rams' process looked promising but they weren't seeing the results yet.

In the second half, the Rams put together a comeback that was the quintessence of VCU--despite the outcome. They put up 50 fearless points after intermission and played truly inspired basketball. Returning to the lineup, Alie-Cox went to work with a nimble drive turned thunderous dunk.

Michael Gilmore hit two 3-pointers and continued skying for improbable rebounds. He had played 14 minutes in VCU's last ten games and hadn't scored since February 6th but finished with 12 points (2-2 2PFG, 2-2 3PFG, 2-2 FT) and eight rebounds in 20 minutes.

Senior Melvin Johnson entered Sunday having made just five of his last 38 3-point attempts (.132). In the second half he caught fire and hit four 3-pointers en route to 23 points. The Rams were running on all cylinders.

Gilmore, Alie-Cox, and Johnson all made a difference on the margin, but VCU's anchor this entire past weekend was JeQuan Lewis. Confirming what was obvious early in the season, the team goes as he goes. He played all 40 minutes on Sunday and finished with 22 points (7-10 2PFG, 2-5 3PFG, 2-2 FT), nine assists, four rebounds, two steals, and five turnovers. He finished the weekend with 43 points (11-16 2PFG, 5-10 3PFG, 6-6 FT), 11 rebounds, 17 assists, four steals, and nine turnovers and only spent four minutes on the bench.

With 8:10 remaining, VCU took a 65-63 lead on Gilmore free-throws. But Buddy Hield, who finished with 36 points, responded with a 3-pointer. The Rams responded as well, and a JeQuan Lewis steal with 4:24 remaining turned into a Mo Alie-Cox and-1--but it was waived off and called a travel. On the next possession a soft Jordan Burgess foul on Hield solidified a five point swing and crushed the Rams' momentum. The Rams would cut it to three, but Oklahoma was able to hold off the comeback and win 85-81.

The game ended the way the season ended--with a profound sense of outperforming expectations and remarkable hope for next season. Finishing 25-11, winning a game in the NCAA Tournament, and going toe-to-toe with one of the best teams and one of the best players in the country would have been an accomplishment for any VCU team. But this year was a special journey of outpacing expectations.

The Rams were picked to finish 5th in the Atlantic 10 and the pick wasn't without cause. VCU lost its star coach, Briante Weber, Treveon Graham, its best prospect in Terry Larrier, and an exciting recruiting class, including #58 Tevin Mack (Texas), #97 Kenny Williams (UNC), and #166 Jordan Murphy (Minnesota).

When Will Wade announced that "HAVOC still lives here," he inherited a depleted roster. Even Justin Tillman had announced his intentions to leave VCU. The 33-year-old coach retained Tillman and quickly added Korey Billbury and Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed. The team struggled at first, but his deliberate inside-out offense showed promise, and the Rams improved on defense every week even as they forced fewer and fewer turnovers. Sunday they finished the season as co-A10 champs and added a much-needed victory in the NCAA Tournament with Friday's win over Oregon State.

The Rams lose sharp-shooter Melvin Johnson and graduate transfer do-everything man Korey Billbury, but return a talented team with loads of potential. This season was Will Wade's overnight miracle--his history paper that earns an A after one all-nighter. Next season, he will see the residuals of his day-to-day work. His obsession with details means the little things will compound over time into something even greater.

Outpacing expectations but still having justified hope for the future is a luxury in sports. VCU has done an exceptional job creating a program that is so much bigger than any one piece, and it seems to just chug along. Next year, Wade will have to deal with the burden of expectations, but this season he proved himself capable and then some. The long wait to November begins with a distinct feeling of satisfaction and an insatiable hunger for more.

5 Stats

VCU and Kansas are the only two teams to win 24 games each of the last ten seasons
The Rams have made the NCAA Tournament eight of the last 10 seasons and have won nine games over that stretch (Duke, USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State, Kansas, Wichita State, Akron, Oregon State).
VCU put up the 7th most efficient game of the season against Oklahoma. That's impressive considering the Big 12 boats the 2nd, 10th, 13th, 31st, 35th, and 44th most efficient offenses in the country (OK is 14th).
Melvin Johnson finished the season with 110 3-pointers, which is tied for 8th nationally and is the second best season in VCU history.
Briante Weber led the nation in steal percentage for four consecutive seasons--something truly dominant according to KenPom. Doug Brooks finished the season ranked #1 nationally in steal percentage, which means a VCU player has dominated that stat for five consecutive seasons.

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March Madness: Getting back to winning

Aaron Williams — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 17:34:34 +0000

The most important data to know

10th-seeded VCU will take-on 7th-seeded Oregon State Friday afternoon in Oklahoma City. The game will be broadcast on TNT at 1:30 PM.

And now, the other stuff

This season, the Rams extended their improbable and impressive run of success at winning games and getting to the NCAA Tournament, but it's been a few years since they won a tournament game.

"We gotta get back to winning. We haven't won one in a couple of years." Coach Wade

Friday will be VCU's eighth trip in the last 10 years to the NCAA Tournament, and they're just one of seven teams to go dancing each of the last six seasons. The consistency is remarkable --especially since four of those bids have been "at-large."

And for years, those bids were more than tourist trips and participation trophies. There was the dagger against Duke and overtime against Pitt in 2007. There was the missed game-winner against UCLA in 2009. In 2011, the Rams won five games en route to the Final Four. In 2012, they beat the Wichita State team that was supposed to be "that year's VCU" before giving offensive juggernaut Indiana its toughest defensive test of the season. Finally, in 2013 they set the record for
margin of victory for a team not seeded 1 or 2 by beating Akron by 46 points (a record they held for an hour).

Since then, the Rams have been upset by 12th-seeded Stephen F. Austin and 10th-seeded Ohio State. Winning in March is a gift, not a privilege, but a win on Friday would cap off an incredible season while taking back the crown as March's ultimate underdog.

Frequent flyer miles

VCU's consistency of invitations is only exceeded by consistency of distances the Rams have been forced to travel.¹

Year	2nd Round Location	Roundtrip Distance
2011	Chicago	1600 miles
2012	Portland	5,400 miles
2013	Auburn Hills	1,300 miles
2014	San Diego	5,200 miles
2015	Portland	5,400 miles
2016	Oklahoma City	2,600 miles²

The top four seeds in each region get geographic preference, so VCU needs to win more games if the Rams want to guarantee games closer to home. While fans let out a collective groan, Tulsa native Korey Billbury is having a good week. He transferred from Oral Roberts so he could go to an NCAA Tournament--check. And, it's in his back yard--bonus.

Putting Brooklyn to bed

Maybe putting Brooklyn way in the rearview mirror is exactly what VCU needs after struggling against Saint Joseph's 87-74 Sunday afternoon. The Hawks dismantled the Rams for most of the game and the margin could have easily been greater than 20 had VCU not had six straight free-throws after Papa Ndao was ejected for yelling at a ref.

Saint Joseph's executed a great game plan. On defense they quickly double- and triple-teamed Mo Alie-Cox on every post touch. He didn't find any looks early and he struggled to kick it to open shooters--especially with Melvin Johnson limited to one leg.

The Hawks were even better on offense. Their unconventional big men, Isaiah Miles and Pierfrancesco Oliva, stretched the floor with their jump shots and Saint Joseph's ran pick-and-rolls, back-door cuts, and high-low action to get layup after layup. The Hawks finished with 1.23 points per possession, 19 assists, and 72% shooting from 2-point range.

"We just gotta play better. We were just tired. We were a step slow. There are no real adjustments." Coach Wade

It's all about Gary Payton II

Oregon State is led by Gary Payton II, who is averaging 15.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 5.1 APG, and 2.5 SPG. Like his NBA hall-of-fame father, Payton is an exceptional defender whose quick hands are Briante Weber-esque and 6-foot-6 wingspan allows him to block shots despite his height only be ing 6-foot-2. He is a two-time Pac 12 defensive player of the year.

GP2 is also an able offensive player. He lacks a 3-point shot, but can play above the rim. He lacks height but can play all over the court--including on and off the ball. And he is a great point guard who runs what Coach Wade called, "as good of offense as we'll see all year." Think St. Bonaventure, but with better big men.

"I'm going to try to pick his brain after the season on some of his offensive stuff. I gotta get his cell phone number when we're out there."Coach Wade on Coach Tinkle

Olaf Schaftenaar, a 6-foot-10 stretch power forward who can hit the 3-pointer and do a little of everything else, is an able complement to Payton II. Their combined senior leadership has been invaluable for a team that's talented but young.

Freshmen Stephen Thompson and Drew Eubanks are two other players to watch. Thompson is an able shooting guard averaging 16 points per game over the last four games, and Eubanks is a super athletic, 6-foot-10 center with a 32 inch standing vertical.

The Beavers, who are dancing for the first time in 26 years, finished 9-9 in the strong Pac 12 Conference, including a win over #1-seed Oregon back in January.

Getting back to winning

March is about match-ups. Just this weekend, the Rams had a favorable matchup against Davidson and won by 22 points, and they also had an unfavorable matchup with Saint Joseph's and lost by 13 points. Friday is a favorable matchup compared to years past--and it's on Friday which gives VCU more time to rest and Melvin Johnson more time to heal.

The Rams will be most successful if they are able to establish an early post presence with Mo Alie-Cox before allowing their perimeter to start slashing to the rim and taking corner 3-pointers. Those 3-pointers will be important when Oregon State, who switches defenses, goes zone.

On the defensive end, slowing down GP2 needs to be priority number one. Korey Billbury has gone from not really playing defense to capable defender in the course of a season, and he could see plenty of time on the Beavers' star. But like any great player, Payton is exceptional at getting others involved when a team over commits.

Friday is a 50-50 game. Play defense and force a couple things the way of VCU, and the Rams will have a good shot at getting back to winning.

Predictions

KenPom picks VCU to win 71-69 with a 41% chance of victory. FiveThirtyEight give the Rams a 73% chance of victory.

Maybe this is the CAA's cosmic way of getting back at VCU for years of the Rams getting hometown advantage in the conference tournament. ↩
One of the defining moments of my college experience was road-tripping to Dayton and Chicago during the 2011 NCAA Tournament. I'm a little sad for VCU students right now. ↩

The 2016 Atlantic 10 LYLAS Bracket

Susan Howson — Sun, 13 Mar 2016 16:09:28 +0000

This year we're taking the RVANews Atlantic 10 Tournament Bracket on the road with us to the actual tournament itself! This poses several problems, foremost of which is that carting a giant pile of Lego (see last year's bracket) around Brooklyn with us just wasn't an option. So this year we're doing something a little bit different--think of it as the most HAGS and LYLAS tournament bracket you've ever seen.

Check back throughout the weekend as we doodle our way deep into the tournament.

— ∮∮∮ —

SWEEP THE LEG!

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The Bracket continues!

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Coming to you live from Barclays Center! Get ready for a full Friday of sweet, sweet basketball action! Watch it all on NBC Sports Network.

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3 thoughts on VCU’s win over Davidson

Ross Catrow — Sun, 13 Mar 2016 00:10:05 +0000

1. Ol' Melvin One-Leg

We all bought into what [Mel] said and followed his lead even though he wasn't able to physically lead tonight. Korey Billbury

After tweaking his ankle at the end of yesterday's game, Melvin Johnson saw limited but hobbly action. Luckily, he still drained a couple of threes to get things going in the first half. On the fashion tip, he was sporting some new, olive-green high tops that the team had to buy at 10:00 AM this morning--a little extra padding around the bum ankle. He'll be available tomorrow, but we'll see how well he can keep up and how well he can perform on defense.

2. How Stella got her groove back

And by Stella I mean VCU and by groove I mean 3-point shooting percentage. Last night the Rams shot a woeful 1-16 from beyond the arc, but tonight they turned that frown upside down and ended 10-25. Wade's group has been winning games without the three ball, so when it starts to fall...watch out.

3. NCAA tournament on deck

Yeaaaah...our numbers are pretty good, but I don't want to leave it to chance. Will Wade

With the win, Coach Wade feels like the Rams are in the NCAA tournament, but, of course, he'd rather not leave it to chance. VCU has appeared in the last five conference title games, which is incredible, and now they'll make it six. That's quite an accomplishment for the first-year coach considering all the transfers and turmoil of this year's off season.

5 thoughts on VCU’s win over UMass

Ross Catrow — Sat, 12 Mar 2016 02:54:41 +0000

1. Offensive rebounds are a big deal

"A lot of their players are focused on rebounds. Some of their players, all they want to do is rebound." Rashaan Holloway

UMass finished with 31 total rebounds and only four offensive rebounds. Meanwhile the Rams couldn't stop rebounding (49 total, 20 offensive). Everyone (except Doug Brooks) had at least two rebounds with Tillman's nine leading the group. These kind of numbers equate to a million more chances for points--which the Rams gladly took.

2. Melvin's probably gonna be OK

Right at the end of the game, Melvin Johnson took a weird fall and hurt his ankle. Losing that kind of offensive firepower heading deeper into the tournament would...not be good. Luckily, Coach Wade said it appears he'll be OK. I guess we'll stressfully wait until tomorrow and see.

3. Speaking of offensive firepower...

VCU went 1-16 from range, but still managed to get four players in double figures--including Johnson, who led the team in scoring despite failing to connect on a single 3-pointer. The Rams attacked the rim and looked good doing it. It makes a Rams fan feel good that when the deep shots aren't falling, the team can still score 85 points (see #1 for how to make that work).

4. Will Wade has many lineups and does not care what you think about them

After a dominating first half, Justin Tillman hardly saw the court in the second half. Jordan Burgess played for 29 minutes. Doug Brooks had a trillion (that's the basketball nerd term for "one minute played with no other stats tallied"). Basically, Coach Wade will start and play whomever he pleases whenever he pleases. Just roll with it!

5. Rashaan Holloway is going to be a scary, scary man

Rashaan Holloway (6'11", 335) played 29 minutes and had 16 points, eight rebounds, and two blocks. He takes up space like a mountain and sucks up defenders like a black hole. And he's only a freshman! UMass's postgame press conference was spent basically talking about how if Holloway lost some weight in the offseason he'd be real annoying to fellow A-10 teams for the next couple of years.

Meet three of your VCU Rams, before they obliterate in Brooklyn

Susan Howson — Fri, 11 Mar 2016 13:45:50 +0000

Stuff I know because other people tell me

Beginning today, the VCU Rams will begin defending their Atlantic 10 title by winning the A-10 tournament at the Barclay's Center in Brooklyn. Right now, the Rams share the conference title with Dayton, and they're the reigning champs of the tournament, so hopes are high.

Stuff I learned about three of the players you'll be seeing a lot of

Mo Alie-Cox

Is not as physically intimidating in person as you'd think he'd be, but when he shakes your hand, your hand will disappear and you will be briefly afraid that it is gone forever, but he releases it at exactly the appropriate time.
Would not reveal what we could expect from his hair at the tournament, which wasn't braided at the moment. He was, however, appreciative of compliments on his very fancy stylings at the VCU/UR game a few weeks ago. And he didn't NOT confirm that there's an unofficial competition for best hair among the players.
Believes that the reason he and Melvin Johnson are my favorites (despite me knowing virtually nothing about basketball, no matter how much I try to watch it) is because "Melvin is just fun to watch."
Doesn't feel nervous about starting over at the bottom of a higher ladder, once he graduates. In reference to Briante Weber: "He's making money." Duh, I forgot. These guys don't.
Often feels awkward at being so easily recognized. "Sometimes you just want to get dinner and chill," he says. But he also doesn't mind being approached. The fans and their enthusiasm were a pleasant surprise when he became a Ram.
Smiles bashfully every time I ask him a question about how great he is. And kind of every other question too.

Melvin Johnson

Doesn't mind being on billboards. "I'm a much less secretive person than Mo," he says. He takes a lot of his energy from the fans, and he absolutely will take a photo with you if you want. I did want, but I forgot, because he was so dang interesting to talk to instead.
Knew without even looking that Mo's hair wasn't braided.
Believes that the reason he and Mo Alie-Cox are my favorites (despite me knowing virtually nothing about basketball, no matter how much I try to watch it) is because "Mo and I just get really fired up about other players, and we get really excited." Please note that no one has said, "Uh, because I block a ton of shots/make a record number of three-pointers."
Believes that if I visit the Bronx, I should partake of a) West Indian, b) Italian, or c) Jamaican food, unless I want pizza, because that's on every single block.
Is also charmingly bashful.

Korey Billbury

Is a dad times two!
Loves playing basketball, but wants to spend every possible minute with his daughter (age 3) and his son (six months).
Because he has those two kids (you may have seen them at Senior Night), he can totally relate to how button-burstingly proud his parents are of him. They flew out from Oklahoma for the last regular season game, and all of that meant a ton to him.
IS SO NICE, GUYS.
WHY ARE THEY ALL SO NICE? SHOULDN'T THEY BE ARROGANT FAMOUS-TOO-YOUNG ATHLETES?
Is growing out his beard out of superstition. I told him my usual shtick about how my mom loves this certain baseball team and truly believes that they win or lose based on what she's wearing, and don't you think it's annoying when people attribute the success you've achieved one night--due to months and years of hard work--to the fact that they've worn the same socks at every game? Korey Billbury, who is among the three nicest humans on Earth, responded with "Hey, I'll take it, anything anyone wants to do to help."
Did not make me feel like a jerk for the shtick about my mom, who is just trying to help her baseball team.

A-10 Tournament: It could be anyone’s crown

Aaron Williams — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 18:39:42 +0000

One year ago, 5th-seeded VCU limped to Brooklyn after losing three of their last four games, including a 27-point dismantling at the hands of Davidson. Somehow, VCU won four games in four days to take the A10 Tournament Championship. Like last season, the 2016 Atlantic 10 Tournament feels like a true free-for-all.

Click to embiggen!

Sure, there are favorites, but there are at least six teams that are plausible champions. For starters, three teams finished in 1st place in the A-10 this season.

But the losses make things seem even more wide open. The top four teams had five losses to double-digit seeds this season. Dayton lost to La Salle. VCU lost to UMass and George Mason. Saint Bonaventure lost to La Salle, and Saint Joseph's lost to Duquesne. Many of the top teams also stumbled down the stretch. Dayton started 11-1 before losing 3 times in February. VCU started 9-0 before finishing 5-4. Saint Joseph's lost to Duquesne on Saturday to lose a share of the title.

Team	Seed	Preseason Poll	Change
Dayton	1	1	-
VCU	2	5	3
SBU	3	8	5
SJU	4	7	3
GW	5	4	-1
Davidson	6	3	-3
URI	7	2	-5
Fordham	8	14	6
UR	9	6	-3
UMass	10	10	-
Duquesne	11	11	-
GMU	12	13	-1
SLU	13	12	1
La Salle	14	9	-5

Dayton is the top seed, but VCU is the favorite according to Ken Pomeroy. The Rams have the highest probability of cutting down the nets, but it's way more likely that they won't be crowned champions than they will. VCU has the advantage because of its balance between offense and defense.

If everything goes to plan, VCU and Dayton will work their way through the bracket and rematch Saturday's 68-67 overtime battle on Sunday afternoon. But VCU has work to do. The Rams turn into a stick in mud when they start fouling--and they foul way too often. This is less of a problem when HAVOC! is HAVOC!ing but the Rams have forced fewer turnovers of late.

Finally, the Rams' offense needs to play to its potential--and it starts with decision-making and connectivity. VCU opened their game against Dayton with three 3-pointers, thanks to impressive ball movement and selfless play. The rest of the game, they shot an eFG%¹ of .351 and scored .795 points per possession. It's pretty simple, every possession in which Mo Alie-Cox touches the ball is a good possession, and the Rams can always make one more pass in their four-guard lineup. If their offense starts flowing like it did in January, then it will be tough for anyone to defeat them.

VCU has been to the finals of the CAA or A-10 Tournament each of the past five seasons. While past performance does not guarantee future results, that's still impressive. Consider this: their 2011 opponent (ODU) has fired its coach, their 2012 opponent (Drexel) has fired its coach, and their 2013 opponent (SLU) is 21-41 over the last two season. Something is going on at VCU, and it's generating a startling and consistent amount of March madness.

Last year's tournament victory was a reminder that anything can happen in Brooklyn, and it certainly benefitted VCU. This year is no different--but it could go the opposite direction. There's no way to know until the round ball hits the hardwood and everything gets settled in Brooklyn. See you on Friday at 6:30 PM.

Effective field goal percentage is the same as FG% except it adds an extra 0.5 weight to 3-pointers since they are worth 50% more than 2-pointers. ↩

PHOTOS: VCU vs. Davidson and Senior Night

Will Weaver — Fri, 04 Mar 2016 22:14:22 +0000

VCU: The pressure is a privilege

Aaron Williams — Fri, 04 Mar 2016 16:46:19 +0000

Photos by: Will Weaver

Things could be a whole lot worse. Scratch that--things have been a whole lot worse. But VCU enters the final game of the regular season with at worst a share of the regular season title and an opportunity to pick up a prime-time win over Dayton on Saturday night. There's a little more pressure on the Rams now that the stakes have been raised, but that isn't exactly a bad thing.

It wasn't that long ago that, as Coach Wade put it, "everyone thought the world was on fire." Days after Coach Shaka Smart took a one-way trip to Austin, Coach Wade inherited a program that lost its best perimeter defender ever, its second-best scorer ever, a talent-rich rising sophomore, and its best-ever recruiting class. Broad Street wasn't exactly brimming with confidence.

A few months later, VCU lost at home to Cincinnati to cap off a three-game losing streak and fell to 5-5. Coach Wade was bullish after the loss and boldly proclaimed "I know what we're doing now is going to work. We've got the right formula, now we just need to do it better."

I'm not sure if even Coach Wade expected what's happened since.

But here they are. If they lose on Saturday, VCU wins a share of the A10 title and at worst a #2-seed in Brooklyn. A win gives them an outright title and a guaranteed #1-seed. It'd be VCU's first conference title since 2009 -- before Coach Smart even took the job at VCU.

Shoot, we were in here a couple months ago after we played Cincinnati...who'd have bet on that? Any takers on that? No, I don't think we'd had any takers if I said we'd win the conference.¹ Coach Wade

Senior Melvin Johnson is unquestionably reason #1 the Rams have been so successful. This season, he combined the attacking craftiness of his freshman campaign that earned his floater the name "The Melvin" with the 3-point shooting of his sophomore and junior seasons while adding point guard skills and improving his defense. Against Davidson on Wednesday, his 3-point shot wasn't falling which in the past meant his impact might have been limited. Instead, he finished with 16 points (5-6 2PFG) and 4 assists.

Senior Korey Billbury, who transferred to VCU from Oral Roberts when it felt like everyone was leaving, also deserves credit. He showed up this summer as a scorer--and not much else. On Wednesday, he did an exceptional job defending Jack Gibbs, the A10's best scorer. He's had a few frustrating games on offense this season, but his ability to impact the game in every way possible has earned him every second he's spent on the hardwood. After getting frustrated earlier this week, Coach Wade reminded Billbury to "have some perspective, buddy, you could be the seven seed in the Summit League Tournament starting this week."

This ain't the best team we've had here in awhile in terms of talent, but we're tough, we're together, and we play really hard.Coach Wade

VCU did an exceptional job coming together under tough circumstances and putting them in a position to compete when it matters. Coach Wade deserves credit. The seniors deserve credit. VCU, a true program, deserves credit.

Saturday won't be easy. Dayton is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and they own one of the best arenas in college basketball. One of their better players, Kendall Pollard missed some games because of injury, which has caused them to stumble, but they started the A10 11-1 and rose all the way to #13/#15 in the country. Add in senior night, and the environment will be a pressure cooker.

But pressure isn't bad. As Coach Wade pointed out on Wednesday, "the pressure is a privilege...there's no pressure if you're just playing the season out." This summer and even in December, it looked like VCU might just be playing the season out at this point. Coach Wade, Melvin Johnson, Korey Billbury, and crew weathered the defections and tough defeats, and built something special really quickly. Saturday's pressure is a privilege well-earned.

I didn't think they would win the conference, but I wrote "VCU: A case for optimism" right after that loss. ↩

VCU: Opportunity knocks, and they’re dunking it

Aaron Williams — Wed, 24 Feb 2016 17:52:29 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver.

VCU topped cross-town rival Richmond 87-74 Friday night in the Stuart C. Siegel Center. The Rams executed one of their best offensive performances of the season driven by opportunity-seizing contributions off of the bench by Justin Tillman and Jordan Burgess. On Sunday, a new opportunity presented itself as #15 Dayton and Saint Joseph's both lost, which cedes sole possession of first place to the Rams.

There are lots of cliches about opportunity. Most of them skip over the most import part: execution. VCU has been preparing hard in the film room and gym, and it's certainly put itself in a place where lots of consequential things are happening, but none of that matters without execution. On Friday they executed, and moving forward, they will need to continue executing if they hope to win VCU's first regular season title since 2009.

Before VCU even took the court against Richmond, a student seized opportunity when he hit a layup, a free-throw, a 3-pointer, and a half-court shot in only five attempts to win 7,637 fans free pizza. The prolific Papa Johns shootout performance even interrupted VCU's pregame huddle-- but sometimes inspiration is more important than last second reminders about the game plan.

Maybe it was that inspiration or extra hard work in the gym, but Justin Tillman seized opportunity. His minutes have been limited since VCU's loss to George Washington. On Friday he had three dunks in the first five minutes and 15 points in the first half. His fourth bucket came on a beautiful shot off of the backboard that showcased a never-before-seen dimension of his face-up game. More good things are surely to come.

Jordan Burgess also seized opportunity. His role has diminished this season, particularly after missing six games during VCU's 9-0 start in conference play. On Friday, he hit three 3-pointers in the first half and finished with 14 points (1-1 2PFG, 4-5 3PFG), five rebounds, two assists, and a steal. He was 0-of-8 from 3-point range in the 2016 calendar year and 9-of-40 (.225) on the season.

Jordan Burgess was huge for us. That's what happens when you keep working. You work yourself out of slumps and you make things happen. You gotta make it happen. No one is going to do it for you. He gets in there every morning at 6:30 or 7:00 AM and works out and shoots. He stays after practice and works out and shoots. Coach Wade

The extra spark off the bench was the difference for VCU as they scored an incendiary 1.28 points per possession. Melvin Johnson (22), Justin Tillman (15), Jordan Burgess (14), JeQuan Lewis (13), and Mo Alie-Cox (12) all finished in double figures, and the Rams shot 24-of-44 from 2-point range, 11-of-22 from 3-point range, and 6-of-6 from the free-throw line. Furthermore, VCU rebounded 15 of their 31 missed shots. The only thing keeping them from dropping a century on the Spiders was 14 turnovers.

Friday's win put the pressure on #15 Dayton and Saint Joseph's who were both effectively tied with VCU for first place in the Atlantic 10. Dayton was the first to fall, courtesy of 31 points, six rebounds, six assists, and two steals from St. Bonaventure sophomore Jaylen Adams. After starting the season 21-3, the Flyers have dropped two games in one week and still have games against URI, UR, and VCU. Two hours later, Saint Joseph's fell 99-93 to Davidson, due to 35 points from scoring sensation Jack Gibbs.

Saturday was as good a day as VCU could have without even playing a game. The Rams are back in sole possession of first place in the conference. Four games stand between Coach Wade and something Coach Smart was never able to do--win the conference and earn a #1 seed in a conference tournament. The Rams have an opportunity, now comes the tricky part: execution.

PHOTOS: VCU defeats Richmond 87–74

Will Weaver — Tue, 23 Feb 2016 17:28:15 +0000

VCU: The two stages of grief

Aaron Williams — Fri, 19 Feb 2016 12:27:09 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

VCU hosts Richmond in the Stuart C. Siegel Center on Friday night at 7:00 PM in round two of RVA's cross-town rivalry. When these two teams met about a month ago, the game unravelled after Richmond's careless technical foul for having six players on the court. The Rams seized on the mistake and stole victory from jaws of defeat.¹ A lot has happened to VCU since that game, the most important being that they've learned a few lessons about accountability and improvement.

Getting over it and getting better

VCU's 12-game winning streak after starting 5-5 was an emotional ride that abruptly ended with back-to-back losses last week to a good George Washington team and a not-so-good Massachusetts team.

The five stages of grief are a popular concept: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. After losing to the Minutemen, the Rams had plenty of reasons to go through all five stages, but instead they went through an abbreviated two-step program of accountability and improvement. They got over it and got better. Both were showcased on Saturday night.

VCU's players usually attend press conferences before Coach Wade. On Saturday, Coach Wade exemplified accountability when he attended the press conference before the players and delivered an emphatic monologue.

The improvement was exemplified by their 33-point dismantling of St. Louis and 16-point victory over sneaky-good Rhode Island. I gave the Rams four New Year's resolutions earlier this season. After enigmatic play in their two losses, the Rams have doubled down and improved on at least three of the four.

Guards, guards, guards

The three-headed monster of JeQuan Lewis, Melvin Johnson, and Korey Billbury is tough to defend. After the UMass loss, Coach Wade had the interesting idea to add Jonathan Williams to the starting lineup. The results on offense have been sensational. VCU scored 1.19 points per possession over the last two games and the starting lineup has been on fire. Against St. Louis they scored 16 points before the first timeout and against Rhode Island they started 5-of-5 from the field.

Williams gives VCU another driver, but more importantly he enables Lewis, Johnson, and Billbury to space out behind the 3-point line. The small ball won't always work, especially on defense, but it gives the league's most efficient offense another high octane scoring dimension.

Feed the BIG Dog

Mo Alie-Cox has turned into an absolute machine. He ranks 7th in the A-10 in offensive rating, 1st in effective field goal percentage, 8th in block percentage, and 1st in free-throw rate. He finished with 21 points (10-12 FG) and five rebounds in 22 minutes against Rhode Island's Hassan Martin, one of the best defenders in the league.

He played plenty of minutes in the Rams' two losses, but they were his 3rd and 4th least used games in conference play on a possession-by-possession basis. The more he touches the ball, the better.

3D Doug

Doug Brooks struggled in the non-conference schedule, but is turning into a force off of the bench and is the Rams' X-factor moving forward. He is shooting 16-of-47 (.340) from 3-point range and stealing the ball on 8.9 percent of possessions in conference play. On Tuesday, he stole the ball seven times in 20 minutes (!) while doling out four assists. His somersault going to halftime exemplified his role as VCU's eternal sparkplug. Brooks isn't expected to carry the load, but he is the straw that breaks the camel's back. He is the marginal contribution that pushes VCU to the next level.

Free throws

OK, this is one area where the Rams still have work to do. They still foul too much but foul a little less than earlier in the season, they get fouled too little but get fouled a little more than earlier in the season, and they miss way too many free throws--something they've just done all season. It is beyond me why a program that has relied on guard-heavy rosters for years has always struggled with free throws. Hopefully moving forward, they miss when it doesn't matter and make when it does matter.

Friday

VCU forfeited its one game lead in the conference and is now in a three-way tie with #15 Dayton and St. Joseph's, but the Rams learned a few things along the way. The losses forced them to add another dimension with four true guards. It forced them to deal with losing after not losing for a ridiculously long time. Add in their experience in close games from earlier in the season and the fact that they are now in their natural habitat of being the hunter instead of the hunted, and the Rams aren't going to be a fun team to play come March--or Friday for that matter.

I chronicled Richmond's bizarre roster before the first matchup. The tl;dr version is simple: the Spiders can score in bunches but their defense isn't worth much. They're coming off a tough loss to Davidson--a game where the Wildcats only had seven scholarship players and were missing scoring sensation Jack Gibbs.

But rivalries are rivalries. ODU and Richmond have always had a way of defying gravity against VCU during seasons when the Monarchs and Spiders have otherwise struggled. Motivation won't be in short supply: The Spiders blew it at home against the Rams this season. The game will be on ESPN2. The aforementioned tough loss to a middling Davidson squad.

Forget stats, records, and ratings. Friday will be about two quality teams in the midst of a golden age of their rivalry battling it out for crosstown bragging rights. After the game, hopefully VCU will have fewer reasons to be accountable and more reasons to applaud improvement than they did a week ago.

Or Richmond stole defeat from the jaws of victory. It depends on how much you embrace Richmondfreude. ↩

PHOTOS: VCU defeats Rhode Island 83 – 67

Will Weaver — Thu, 18 Feb 2016 20:00:22 +0000

PHOTOS: VCU defeats St. Louis 85–52

Will Weaver — Mon, 15 Feb 2016 19:45:42 +0000

$15 tickets for VCU vs. Rhode Island on Tuesday

Susan Howson — Mon, 15 Feb 2016 13:15:20 +0000

Photos by: Will Weaver

VCU Athletics is offering $15 tickets to those willing to type in a coupon code. Do you possess brave enough typing fingers?

Get $15 off VCU vs. Rhode Island tickets for Tuesday, February 16 at 7:30 PM, clicking on this link and using code HAVOCLIVESHERE.

#LetsGoVCU!

VCU: The long game

Aaron Williams — Thu, 11 Feb 2016 18:39:19 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

VCU dropped its first game in 49 days when it lost to George Washington 72-69 Saturday afternoon in the Stuart C. Siegel Center. The loss, which snapped the third longest winning streak in the country, is no reason to panic, but it highlights the importance of match-ups and continued improvement.

Coach Shaka Smart had message discipline that would have made any of the campaign managers currently in South Carolina or Nevada jealous. One of his oft-repeated talking points was about the importance of match-ups relative to records, conference standings, rankings, or seeds. The right or wrong match-up can mean victory or defeat. Match-ups can mean Final Four runs or first weekend upsets in the NCAA Tournament.

VCU has struggled against long, athletic teams this season. Opponents like Florida State and Cincinnati, which have the length to challenge the Rams' passing while also defending the rim, have been able to reduce VCU's usually-crisp offense to fruitless dribbling around the perimeter.

George Washington has more in common with the Seminoles and Bearcats than they have in common with other teams in the Atlantic 10. The Colonials start a 6-foot-6 shooting guard and a 6-foot-8 small forward alongside one of the biggest and most skilled front-courts in the conference. Their center is 6-foot-10 and 265 pounds but is mobile enough to slow down VCU's drivers and physically imposing enough to limit Mo Alie-Cox and Justin Tillman.

On Saturday, the Rams weren't able to get the mismatches they wanted on offense, weren't able to finish at the rim, and the Colonials' used their length to deny entry passes to Mo Alie-Cox. VCU is shooting .518 from 2-point range in conference play but finished 16-of-43 (.372) against GW.

The combination of good ball-handling and GW's size also punished the Rams on the other end of court. The Rams couldn't force enough turnovers to keep GW out of the half-court which meant VCU had to defend 6-foot-10 Kevin Larsen and 6-foot-9 Tyler Cavanaugh. Their interior was such a handful that Patricio Garino scored 27 points on easy catch-and-shoot 3-pointer after easy catch-and-shoot 3-pointer.

Data from KenPom.com back up this story. "Effective height" weights a team's height based on the number of minutes played by different sized players. If a team has a 7-foot center that plays 20 minutes and a 6-foot-8 center that plays 20 minutes, then the effective height is 6-foot-10. It's a more accurate measure than average height because players like 7-footer DJ Haley couldn't skew the average of VCU's usually undersized lineups under Coach Smart.

VCU has struggled against teams with effective height significantly greater than the NCAA average this season¹.

Opponent	VCU's Margin	Effective Height Compared to Avg.	National Rank
FSU	-5	4.62	10
Duke	-8	4.25	13
GW	-3	2.56	38
Cincy	-6	1.45	75
GMU	24	1.37	82
GT	-13	1.19	88
Duquesne	22	1.13	90
UNF	12	0.92	105
Wisconsin	-1	0.92	106
Richmond	5 (OT)	0.84	112

Coach Will Wade has some message discipline as well. His talking point? Continued improvement.

At this point, VCU can't pick its opponents, but it can focus on improving. The Rams have the potential to boast the best offense and defense in the conference, but their defense has been slipping. On Tuesday, Coach Wade summed it up, "Our offense has really been bailing us out. Our defense has been getting progressively worse, especially in the second half."

Two weeks ago, VCU forfeited a 22 point lead to Davidson. Last week, the Rams allowed La Salle to score more than one point per possession--the Explorers have won one game since before Thanksgiving. Saturday, the hens came to roost as George Washington scored 43 points in the second half and VCU's offense didn't have enough juice to compensate. "Our offense wasn't able to bail us out because our offense was just as bad if not worse on Saturday. We weren't sharing the ball. We weren't moving it side-to-side. We weren't getting it in the paint."

Fortunately, the Rams face Massachusetts on Thursday and Saint Louis on Saturday. No game is easy, especially on the road like Thursday's game, but the not-as-terrifying-as-others opponents should give VCU the opportunity to get back to VCU basketball.

The Rams need to start forcing turnovers and speeding up opponents again. They need to start feeding Mo-Alie Cox on post-ups/pick-and-rolls and Justin Tillman on dump-offs. JeQuan Lewis, Korey Billbury, and Melvin Johnson need to get back to their role as Cerebus, the three-headed mythical monster that guards Hades. Most importantly, VCU needs to get back to what made VCU, VCU: defense.

"We're holding teams to under 30 points per game in the first half. In the second half, it's a little over 40. That's a big difference. If we could get that into the mid-30s we'd be in business."

Maybe good teams from major conferences attract talented players that also happen to be tall? Maybe height is simply a confounding factor and opponent's talent is the driver of VCU's struggles? The correlation between effective height in the NCAA and Ken Pomeroy's main measure of team quality is 0.48, so height is probably part of the story for VCU. ↩

PHOTOS: VCU vs. George Washington (69–72)

Will Weaver — Mon, 08 Feb 2016 20:00:27 +0000

VCU: Halfway to Brooklyn

Aaron Williams — Fri, 05 Feb 2016 16:43:26 +0000

VCU outpaced La Salle 88-70 Wednesday night in Philadelphia to win its 12th game in a row. Halfway through A-10 play, the Rams are almost unrecognizable compared to the non-conference schedule and now boast a perfect 9-0 record.

The Explorers beat VCU in the Siegel Center in 2013, lost to the Rams in double-overtime in 2014, and topped the Rams in double-overtime in the Siegel Center last season. Wednesday's game lacked the competitiveness of battles past--VCU's offense dominated.

Melvin Johnson finished with 30 points. At one point he was 8-of-10 from 3-point range before forcing three misses in the second half. He's been simmering all season. Wednesday night was the incendiary performance he needed to elevate his name into the conference player of the year conversation.

La Salle's star scorer was not as successful. Auburn transfer Jordan Price scored 34 points in the Siegel Center last season. He finished with 10 points on 3-of-9 shooting on Wednesday and it took more than 19 minutes for him to score his first points. Korey Billbury and Melvin Johnson defended him relentlessly and the Rams' clearly chose to shut him down and force La Salle's remaining players to make plays. La Salle's unnamed roster did a good job answering the call, but the Explorers just didn't have the firepower to stay competitive.

VCU's winning streak has been powered by point guard JeQuan Lewis. Wednesday, he was limited throughout the game because of fouls. Sophomore point guard Jonathan Williams stepped up. He finished with a career-high 14 points (6-6 FG) and two assists.

The Rams' defense had a mediocre night against La Salle's pedestrian offense, but VCU did a great job turning turnovers into points and attacking the paint. VCU won the turnover battle 17-7, points off of turnovers 29-9, and points in the paint 38-24.

Wednesday night was far from the Rams' toughest challenge of the season, but perfect is perfect. VCU owns the second longest winning streak in the country at 12 games and is a perfect 9-0 in conference play at the halfway mark.

Two Pony Race

The Atlantic 10 is quickly turning into a two team battle between VCU and #23 Dayton. There is a good chance that the conference will be decided when the Rams visit the Flyers for the final game of the season. It will be incredibly difficult to top #23 Dayton in Dayton, Ohio on senior day. Fortunately, VCU has a one-game lead and fewer top-tier games remaining:

Dayton: @URI, @St. Joseph's, vs. SBU, vs. URI, @URI, and vs. VCU.
VCU: vs. GW, vs. URI, vs. Richmond, @GW, and @Dayton.

Every game the Rams win will be crucial to maintaining the #1 seed in Brooklyn and the first conference title for VCU since 2009.

VCU Top 5

VCU was propelled into first place by a dramatic turnaround after a lackluster nonconference schedule. Their success so far has been driven by an unbelievably balanced effort from Melvin Johnson heroics to the occasional Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed offensive burst and Korey Billbury rebound.

The Rams don't have any one player that can do everything, but they have a bunch of players who can do one or two things exceptionally well. Here are five players who have stood out since the Rams kicked it into another gear.

JeQuan Lewis: As Lewis goes, VCU will go. He's been sensational in conference play where he's shooting .549 from 2, .483 from 3, and .909 from the charity stripe. All of this while playing good defense and distributing the ball with ease.

Melvin Johnson: He now has five more career 3-pointers than Troy Daniels. He's the leader and best players on a team that is quickly turning into one of the nation's best.

Doug Brooks: After a break-out performance in the 2015 NCAA Tournament against Ohio State, Brooks struggled mightily in the non-conference schedule. He's clearly the most improved player since the fall. He is stealing the ball at a Briante Weber rate and his 3-point shot is finally starting to fall.

Justin Tillman: He leads the conference in offensive rating, offensive rebounding, turnover rate, and 2-point shooting. He's a jaw-dropping 43-of-54 (.796) from the field in conference play and has scored in double-figures in four straight games.

Mo Alie-Cox: There have been fewer "Mo Says No"s this season, but the non-stat sheet part of Alie-Cox's defense has improved dramatically. His ability to bang with centers down low, recover and seal off driving lanes, and defend the perimeter all while fouling only 2.4 times per 40 minutes in conference play is remarkable. Most teams would give up three guards for a player who can do two of those three things.

Oh, and he can score. Alie-Cox is shooting 35-of-52 (.615) in conference play. More importantly, he's number one in the conference in free throw rate where he has turned into a dependable finisher (28-of-36).

— ∮∮∮ —

There's still a ton of basketball left. VCU started the A-10 7-0 last season before falling to 12-6 and missing out on a Brooklyn bye¹. But perfect is perfect, and the Rams can't have been any better thus far. Hopefully they can keep pace and finish first place in conference play for the first time since Coach Anthony Grant prowled the sidelines.

Much of that collapse happened after the Briante Weber injury. Fortunately, the Rams are incredibly balanced this season and are protected from an injury driven collapse. ↩

JeQuan Lewis: Playing his tempo

Aaron Williams — Wed, 27 Jan 2016 19:34:08 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver

VCU won its 10th straight and moved to 7-0 in the A-10 after topping St. Bonaventure 84-76 in a snowy showdown in the Stuart C. Siegel Center Sunday afternoon. After an up-and-down-and-then-down-some-more start to the season, point guard JeQuan Lewis reeled off another impressive game that makes November and December seem like a different season and Lewis seem like a different player.

On Sunday, they needed him. VCU's high-octane offense sputtered in the first half as fouls and timely SBU plays kept the Rams from ever settling down. Lewis was the difference. He had 16 points by intermission.

In the second half, VCU fell behind by nine points. Lewis turned distributor and immediately found Doug Brooks in the corner for a crucial 3-pointer. The Rams never looked back as they used a 51 point second half to turn that deficit into a double-figure lead. Lewis finished with 26 points, seven assists, zero turnovers, four rebounds, and two steals after playing 39 of 40 minutes. Over the last three games he's averaging 22 PPG, and over the last two games he has 15 assists and one turnover.

Those numbers speak for themselves, but they need to be put into context to fully understand the importance of VCU's starting point guard.

— ∮∮∮ —

On November 22nd, Lewis was benched after tallying three turnovers in nine minutes against Wisconsin in Madison Square Garden. Two weeks later, he turned the ball over 13 times and fouled seven times in 37 combined minutes against Florida State and Georgia Tech.

Talented as Lewis is, he has always been his own biggest critic, and little things were snowballing. This quote from Coach Smart on Around the Horns last season sums it up:

"I think he's made a lot of progress. The hardest thing for him is how hard he is on himself. He's somewhat of a perfectionist. A lot of times when he makes something he perceives to be a mistake, a lot of times he gets in a place where he's very upset about that mistake and not necessarily in a very coachable place.

One week after the baker's dozen of turnovers, VCU fell to 5-5 after losing to Cincinnati, but not before JeQuan Lewis scored six points in the final 45 seconds and something seemed to click. Lewis, and the offense he leads, has been sensational ever since.

	PPG	2PFG	3PFG	FT	RPG	APG	TOPG
First 10 games	9.1	18-43 (.419)	6-18 (.333)	37-45 (.822)	1.2	4.3	3.4
Next 10 games	12.5	34-56 (.607)	11-27 (.407)	24-26 (.923)	2.7	5.6	2.5

During VCU's first ten games, Lewis seemed to be forcing his role as distributor. His intentions were good: get the rock to the big men. But sloppy entry passes were often stolen, which limited the offense to Melvin Johnson doing amazing stuff--and Melvin Johnson did some amazing stuff (!), but a team needs a point guard.

In the postgame presser after the Cincy loss, Coach Wade seemed to know something that in hindsight sounds a little less crazy than it did after three consecutive losses:

"I know what we're doing now is going to work. We've got the right formula now. Now we just need to do it better." Coach Wade

So far, the formula is working. First, the Rams found ways to take pressure off of Lewis. Sometimes Melvin Johnson will take over point guard responsibilities, which makes it tougher to prepare for VCU on each defensive possession and enables Lewis to find catch-and-shoot opportunities. Mo Alie-Cox has also been an effective distributor when he posts up and forces teams to either try to defend him one-on-one or double-team him, which enables him to pass to open shooters.

The Rams have also trotted out some devastating four-guard lineups. Earlier in the year, Coach Wade would only use Jordan Burgess, much like Smart would only use Treveon Graham or Bradford Burgess, as the undersized forward. With Burgess injured, he started experimenting with Brooks and Billbury defending much larger players. Putting four guys on the floor who can beat players off of the dribble and shoot 3-pointers has proven tough to defend.

Finally, VCU has figured how to involve Justin Tillman on offense which means he can now do more than just grab all of the rebounds. He's discovered a knack for lurking along the baseline and catching dump-off passes when Lewis drives the lane. It's resulted in a better shooting percentage for Lewis...and Tillman just never misses. He's shooting 34-of-44 (.773) in conference play including 32 points on 14-of-17 shooting over the last two games and he boasts the second highest offensive rating in all of the A10.

And when all else fails, Lewis's wicked-fast speed has punished defenses. His rebounds are as good as steals because of his ability to run the court and defenders just can't keep Lewis in front of them when he gets low and turns on the after-burners.

I like playing at my tempo, which is fast. JeQuan Lewis

But Lewis's play transcends Xs and Os or statistics. In the battle at Saint Joseph's, he assisted two Mo Alie-Cox buckets, made a layup, hit two free-throws, and grabbed a rebound in the final 1:34 to seal the 13 point comeback and 85-82 victory.

With 1:40 remaining and the game out-of-reach at Richmond on 1/18, Lewis simply took the ball from ShawnDre' Jones at mid-court and manufactured two points. The play helped force overtime.

On Sunday, Lewis found Brooks for that momentum-altering 3-pointer and again forced a turnover during a crucial stretch when his sticky defense drove Jaylen Adams out-of-bounds.

Simply put: During the Wisconsin game, Lewis couldn't even make it on the court. Now, there's no VCU player that has a stronger case for being on the court when VCU needs a timely stop, game-ending free-throws, or a momentum altering score.

Where this leaves VCU

VCU isn't there yet. The Rams' slow start to the season put a serious dent in their non-conference resume and continues to threaten their sixth straight trip to the NCAA Tournament. And while their conference start is perfect, VCU still has to face some of the toughest teams in the A10. In fact, the Rams' conference strength of schedule ranks dead last in the A10. Part of that is because they don't have to play themselves, but the other part is VCU's remaining games: @ Davidson, GW, URI, UR, @ GW, and @ Dayton.

That's tough, but VCU can be a little more confident about those games than in November and December because JeQuan Lewis has found his tempo, and not only is it fast, it's effective.

PHOTOS: VCU defeats St. Bonaventure 84–76

Will Weaver — Tue, 26 Jan 2016 18:27:39 +0000

The golden age of VCU and UR basketball

Aaron Williams — Mon, 18 Jan 2016 13:30:43 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

Any concern that the VCU-Richmond rivalry would lose intensity after the departure of Coach Shaka Smart can be thoroughly dismissed. VCU inched past Richmond 94-89 in overtime in the Robins Center Saturday afternoon in a game full of big-time plays, intensity, and even a dash of controversy.

With 1:40 remaining in regulation, Richmond owned a four-point lead, the basketball, and momentum. It looked like VCU was going to make the seven mile trip across town empty handed--once again. But a series of dramatic and improbable events carried the Rams to their eighth straight victory.

First, JeQuan Lewis simply took the ball from ShawnDre' Jones at mid-court and laid the ball up to cut the deficit to two points. On the next possession, Coach Will Wade stormed several feet into the court and confusion ensued. Richmond had six players on the hardwood, resulting in a Melvin Johnson free-throw to cut the deficit to one point.

After a little back and forth, Melvin Johnson assisted on a Justin Tillman dunk to tie the game with 35 seconds remaining. But Richmond's high-octane offense still had ball. ShawnDre' Jones, who finished with 26 points and six assists, drove to the rim but Mo Alie-Cox picked up his fifth and most important block of the night. Overtime.

VCU lost in overtime in the Robins Center in 2013 and in double-overtime in the Robins Center last season, so when Jones immediately scored in overtime on Saturday the nerves of the collective Black & Gold ached a little harder. But then something uncommon for VCU happened--their free-throw shooting won a game. Richmond went 1-of-5 from the charity stripe while VCU finished a perfect 6-of-6 to take a three point lead.

Richmond had three seconds and a heave to tie it on the final possession, but Justin Tillman playing the role of mad man to the max defended the inbound pass and Mo Alie-Cox intercepted the ball and dunked it as time expired. It was his second game-altering defensive play at the buzzer of the night.

Controversy

From the Siegel Center and Robins Center to the sidelines of the Barclay's Center to the dais at the Annual Coaches Cook-off, Richmond's Coach Mooney and VCU's Coach Smart always had an intense rivalry that boiled over in moments of emotion but would be cordial even seconds later. Early in Saturday's game, Richmond students chanted "Where's Shaka?" By the end of the game, I don't think anyone cared.

Rivalries are strengthened by history. By mutual respect. By personalities. Coach Wade is holding up his end of the bargain.

As if the six players on the court technical wasn't controversial enough¹, Saturday's tension went to 11 when Coach Mooney snubbed Coach Wade during the handshake line. The video is incontrovertible, but Mooney was quick to not make a big deal about it. "I know Will was celebrating the game. I thought he was still celebrating the game, and I went by and just tapped him and said , 'Congratulations'." Snub or inconvenience, these two will prowl the same sideline in about a month, and if we're all lucky again, in Brooklyn.

Creativity

The game was an exemplar of Will Wade's coaching style. VCU's young coach is more willing than his predecessor to totally transform his strategy from night to night and possession to possession. Against Fordham on Wednesday, he slimmed the playbook to four plays from a volume of more than 300. Three things stood out on Saturday.

First, VCU used more 2-3 matchup zone than in any other game this season. The defense wasn't great from either team. VCU was able to get to the rim at will and Richmond's ShawnDre' Jones finished with 26 points, TJ Cline added 22, and Terry Allen scored 18 points. But the Rams' zone was the most resistant defense of the night and VCU held one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country to a 3-of-18 performance from beyond the arc.

Small-ball is central to HAVOC! old and new, but with Jordan Burgess out with a broken finger, the Rams have been forced to play more traditional lineups. Against Richmond, Wade played Korey Billbury and Doug Brooks at the four for extended minutes for the first time all season so the Rams could go small again. This enabled the perimeter trio of Lewis, Johnson, and Billbury to finally play to its potential. The three combined for 66 points, 14 rebounds, eight assists, and six steals. This trio has been reason #1 to be bullish about VCU. Saturday is a promising sign.

Most importantly, VCU used Jonathan Williams and Melvin Johnson as point guards in order to move JeQuan Lewis off of the ball. Lewis thrived. He finished with a career-high 29 points on a mix of dizzying drives and catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. Richmond used length to take away Melvin Johnson's 3-pointers, but he responded with six assists and a knack for making the extra pass.

Coach Wade has shown a willingness to mix things up. At worst, it's interesting. At best, it gives VCU the edge in brutal conference road games with outcomes as unknown as coin flips. The Rams are now in sole possession of first place at 5-0 and return home for the next two games. Pay close attention, because Coach Wade is bound to have a few tricks up his sleeve.

— ∮∮∮ —

The addition of VCU to the Atlantic 10 sparked the golden age of RVA basketball. It was the perfect response to Richmond's trip to the 2011 Sweet Sixteen and VCU's journey to the 2011 Final Four. Saturday was the start of another brilliant chapter. I can't wait to see what twists and turns remain between these two in the 2016 season, and I certainly hope this chapter lasts until Brooklyn.

Coach Mooney took full responsibility after the game, but the refs have some responsibility to count the players before the ball is in play. ↩

PHOTOS: VCU vs. Fordham

Will Weaver — Fri, 15 Jan 2016 21:53:19 +0000

What to expect: Not your older sibling’s Spiders vs. Rams

Aaron Williams — Fri, 15 Jan 2016 14:19:40 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

After dismantling Fordham 88-54 Wednesday night in the Siegel Center for its seventh consecutive victory, VCU travels across town to face Richmond Saturday afternoon in Part One of its biggest rivalry of the season. Ram fans tuning in on TV or visiting the ol' Robins Center will recognize the jerseys and players, but could be shocked by Coach Mooney's most unique team to date.

Richmond's defense is noticeably worse than in previous seasons, they compensate for it with an unfamiliar high-octane offense, and they play at a faster tempo than in any of Coach Mooney's 11 seasons in RVA.

Defense

Despite loads of potential, Richmond is off to a pedestrian start, with a loss to JMU and an 0-2 start in the A10 that they've turned into a 2-2 record. The problem: they can't defend anyone.

Richmond's tricky 2-3 matchup zone has traditionally frustrated opponents from 3-point range while using a center like Alonzo Nelson-Ododa to turn the area around the rim into a no-fly zone. This season, the Spiders are allowing opponents to shoot a jaw-dropping 38.2% from beyond the arc and teams are amassing frequent flyer miles attacking the paint now that Nelson-Ododa, who finished second on Richmond's all-time block list in only three seasons (!), is a reserve for 14-1 Pittsburgh.

The departure of the streaky and enigmatic Nelson-Ododa forced undersized junior forward Marshall Wood and undersized senior forward Terry Allen into some unfavorable match-ups on defense. VCU's Justin Tillman could be a handful coming off of a career-high 27 points and his fourth career double-double, and Mo Alie-Cox has been out-muscling opponents and playing at an all-conference level.

Richmond's undersized front-court has been making up for it's defense on the other end by punishing teams with impossible offensive match-ups and impeccable spacing.

Offense

Richmond boasts the 19th most efficient offense in the country, fueled by the 8th best shooting in the nation. 5-foot-11 ShawnDre' Jones is doing his best Kendall Anthony impersonation--he's lightning quick, has a killer jump-shot, and scored 35 points against Fordham on January 10th. He's 42-of-91 (.462) from 3-point range this season.

His speed is complemented by a suite of long wing/forwards who can hit shots from the perimeter. 6-foot-9 TJ Cline, 6-foot-8 Marshall Wood, and 6-foot-7 Deion Taylor¹ are a combined 62-of-154 (.403) from 3-point range. The challenges of defending them will undoubtedly be tougher for VCU with Jordan Burgess sitting out with a broken finger.

Richmond's greatest asset is 6-foot-8, 240 pound Terry Allen. The potential conference player of the year can use his muscle and length to play over and through players and he has the guard skills to face up and score in a variety of ways. He's scored in double-figures in every game going back to February 14th, 2015 and is 99-of-175 (.566) from 2-point range, 14-of-37 (.378) from 3-point range, and 82-of-107 (.766) from the free-throw line.

Tempo

2015-16 has been the second worst statistical defense in Coach Mooney's eleven seasons at Richmond. But the Spiders are making up for their soft defense with the best offense at Richmond this century. And they are playing quicker than ever before.

The fastest tempo his teams at Richmond have ever played is 65 posessions per game which ranked 238th in 2009. This season, the Spiders are churning out 70.4 possessions per game. It's weird to say, but buckle-up, Saturday's game in the Robins Center could be a barn-burner.

Why It Matters

Richmond swept VCU last regular season for the first time since 2001. The Rams got the last say in a 70-67 victory in the A-10 Tournament, but it's just no fun ceding bragging rights to a cross-town rival--even if it's just for a few weeks. More importantly, last season's losses gave 12-6 Richmond a 4-seed and a bye while 12-6 VCU was given a five-seed and was forced to play on Wednesday of the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

The conference battle is equally tense this season. VCU and St. Bonaventure are tied at 4-0 with three teams tied at 3-1 knocking on the door. So far, the Rams have played one of the easiest schedules in the conference. Saturday could be the difference between winning the league and finishing second or getting a bye and being forced to play on Wednesday.

Either way, it promises to be a bitter battle between the slightly new-look Rams and the nearly unrecognizable Spiders.

Taylor is out indefinitely with a back injury. He's missed two games this season. ↩

Five stats from VCU’s dismantling of Fordham

Aaron Williams — Thu, 14 Jan 2016 18:12:06 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver

VCU dominated Fordham 88-54 on both ends of the court Wednesday night in the Stuart C. Siegel Center. Here are five shocking stats:

VCU scored 20 points in the final 5:51 of the first half including an 18-2 run. Fordham scored 19 points in the entire first half. In fact, it took Fordham 37:31 and VCU's walk-ons to match VCU's 47 first half points.
VCU assisted on 23 of 33 field goals in the game including 14 assists on 18 buckets in the first half. JeQuan Lewis tallied 7 dimes and reserve point guard Jonathan Williams added 5.
Michael Gilmore, Korey Billbury, Ahmed Hamdy Mohamed, and Gerron Scissum all dunked, but it was Justin Tillman's four dunks that punished the Siegel Center's rims the most. He finished with a career-high 27 points and his fourth double-double after picking up his tenth rebound late in the game.
11 of VCU's we dressed players scored. Walk-on Torey Burston finished with 3 points, and freshman Gerron Scissum slammed a powerful jam. Freshman walk-on Jordan Riullano didn't score, but he did get an assist.
VCU's four forwards combined for 47 points, 19 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, 4 blocks, and 3 steals. They went 17-of-23 from two and 2-of-3 from three which amounts to a .769 effective field goal percentage.

Here are three shocking .gifs:

Justin Tillman, man of the hour

Hamdy Mohamed!

Scissum!

— ∮∮∮ —

The Rams travel across town to visit rival Richmond Saturday afternoon at 2:00 PM.

Threat Level HAVOC!: The conference play ahead of us

Aaron Williams — Fri, 08 Jan 2016 15:27:15 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

Despite giving Saint Joseph's a 9-0 run to start the first half and an 11-0 run to start the second half, despite 31 points (7-8 2PFG, 4-6 3PFG) and 9 rebounds from the supremely improved St. Joe's senior big man Isaiah Miles, and despite a 13-point deficit in the second half, VCU topped the Hawks 85-82 Tuesday night in Philadelphia to move to 2-0 in conference play.

The short version: VCU stole this game and I still haven't figured out how they did it.

The Rams couldn't get things done on the defensive end and they fell in love with the 3-point shot attempt despite mediocre success from beyond the arc. But between the 13:08 mark and the 5:14 mark in the second half, Melvin Johnson scored 17 points. Then Doug Brooks scored 5 points in 41 seconds. Mo Alie-Cox followed that up with a dominant 10 straight points.

The Rams scored 33 points in the final 10 minutes, and I guarantee a non-insignificant number of people who turned the game off in frustration couldn't believe reading the result in Good Morning, RVA Wednesday morning.

I honestly don't want to dwell on Tuesday for too long. It was agonizing for all but eight minutes. And while it went down on paper as a W, a process-based evaluation won't be as favorable to the Rams as the scoreboard. But that's conference play, and that's what it takes to be successful sometimes. A win against the Hawks in Philadelphia is no easy feat, so to put it in perspective, here is every A-10 team ranked on how much of a threat they are to HAVOC!

— ∮∮∮ —

#13 La Salle (4-8, 0-2)

The fightin' Jordan Prices (22.8 PPG) haven't beat a D-I team since November 23rd. The defense just isn't there.

#12 GMU (6-9, 0-2)

The Rams already dismantled the Patriots 71-47. Dave Paulsen's ceiling appears to be way higher than his predecessor, but George Mason just can't score this season. They'll break 50 when the Rams visit Fairfax, but VCU should get another season sweep.

#11 UMass (8-6, 1-1)

The Minutemen have impressive victories over Clemson and Harvard but have fallen off the train since starting 4-0. On Tuesday they were clobbered by Dayton. The Minutemen's dreams of Chaz Williams are HAVOC!'s nightmares, but he's long gone and what's left just isn't enough.

#10 SLU (6-8, 1-1)

The Billikens were bad last year, and it still took Jordan Burgess heroics to squeak out a 63-61 victory in St. Louis. SLU has won just two of their last 10 games. The Rams return to the Mississippi on Sunday, and something tells me it will be closer than it should be.

#9 Duquesne (10-5, 0-2)

The Dukes are a middle-of-the-pack team at best, but they'll be the most annoying team in the A-10 because of their 3-point shooting. Expect them to beat someone unexpected. Derrick Colter is putting together a solid season after beating cancer, and Micah Mason is 41-of-96 (.427) from 3-point range.

#8 Fordham (10-3, 1-1)

These Rams are unexpectedly 10-3 in coach Jeff Neubauer's first year. His 2014 team at Eastern Kentucky took VCU to overtime in the Siegel Center, using an aggressive 2-3 zone and a high-octane backcourt. This season, his team ranks 4th nationally in defensive turnover percentage and 3rd in defensive steal percentage. VCU ranks 5th and 2nd respectively. Fordham is still a work in progress, but this could turn into high-pressure, high-turnover rivalry moving forward.

#7 St. Bonaventure (10-3, 0-2)

The Bonnies are actually pretty good this season. They've won seven of their last eight, Marcus Posley (who hit the game-winner against VCU last season) and Dion Wright are quality seniors, and they may even get a bye in the A-10 tourney. But VCU doesn't have to visit Olean this season, and that in and of itself is a victory.

#6 George Washington (12-3, 1-1)

The Colonials added Wake Forest transfer Tyler Cavanaugh to an already stacked front court featuring Patricio Garino, Yuta Watanabe, and Kevin Larsen, and until Monday they'd been the only team to beat UVA. But VCU is 4-1 against GW in the A-10 with an average margin of victory of more than 20 points per game, and the Colonials dropped a game to SLU on Wednesday. Until GW proves me wrong (likely), call me a skeptic.

#5 Davidson (9-4, 1-1)

The Wildcats started the conference slate 5-4 last season before winning nine straight and topping the conference. Never bet against Coach Bob McKillop, especially when he has guards like Jack Gibbs, Jordan Barham (ankle injury), and Brian Sullivan (concussion). The Wildcats rank second nationally in offensive turnover percentage, and they shoot the ball well, too. If they get healthy and their defense shows up, they could beat VCU...or anyone for that matter.

#4 Rhode Island (10-5, 2-0)

This was supposed to be Rhode Island's dominant season, but E.C. Matthews, favorite for Conference Player of the Year and potential first round draft pick, tore his ACL in the first half of the first game of the season. Towson transfer Four McGlynn is the 3-point shooter the Rams have always needed and Hassan Martin is one of the best defensive players in the conference, but it's tough to not wonder what might have been. URI has never beaten VCU, despite the loss of Matthews, URI boasts tons of talent and will push VCU to the brink.

#3 Saint Joseph's (11-3, 1-1)

The Hawks have a strong history against the Rams. Furthermore, they entered Tuesday 11-2 with losses to Florida and Villanova. Saint Joseph's has obliterated expectations this season, and if they rematch the Rams in Brooklyn, the outcome is as good as a coin flip.

#2 Richmond (8-6, 0-2)

The Spiders could have no talent and still steal a win over the Rams because rivalry. But Richmond does have talent. Terry Allen (19.9 PPG, 8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2 SPG) is an early favorite for conference player of the year, TJ Cline is a 3-point shooting match-up nightmare, and ShawnDre' Jones is basically Kendall Anthony in training. The Spiders stumbled to start A-10 play, but it will be a miracle if VCU sweeps the city this season.

#1 Dayton (12-2, 2-0)

The Flyers are in the Top 25 and still aren't near their ceiling. JMU transfer Charles Cooke has been sensational (15.2 PPG & 6.8 RPG), and senior Dyshawn Pierre should be a big boost as he gets comfortable playing after missing the first eleven games of the season. VCU ends the conference-slate at Dayton on March 5th. Basketball will win if the Flyers and Rams are tied for first in the A-10 entering that game.

— ∮∮∮ —

Dayton is far and away the favorite to win the conference at this point. Richmond, Saint Joseph's Rhode Island, Davidson, Saint Bonaventure, and VCU are all going to scrap it out in the second tier, and Tuesday's Hawks-Rams battle was just the beginning. Someone's going home unhappy. Someone's going to start strong and then tank. Someone's going to struggle and then take over. The next two months are primed to be a roller-coaster for VCU fans and fans of Atlantic 10 basketball. Buckle up and enjoy.

PHOTOS: VCU defeats both George Mason and North Florida

Susan Howson — Mon, 04 Jan 2016 14:00:36 +0000

VCU vs. North Florida -- December 30th, 2015

VCU vs. George Mason -- January 2nd, 2016

VCU: Highlights and resolutions

Aaron Williams — Tue, 29 Dec 2015 20:20:29 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver

Highlights

The Rams started the calendar year in the midst of a 12-game winning streak as they sprinted out to a 17-3 start and a #14 ranking. In the second week of the year, Treveon Graham hurt his ankle but still powered his way to 26 points and 8 rebounds in a 65-60 win at Rhode Island that should simply be remembered as "The Treveon Graham Game".

The Rams also topped newcomer, and soon-to-be A10 champs, Davidson 71-65 and rocked the perpetually up-and-coming George Washington Colonials 72-48 at the Siegel Center. On January 31st, Briante Weber tallied 11 points, three rebounds, one assist, and six steals in 26 minutes before tearing his ACL, MCL, and meniscus in a loss to Richmond. He finished his career with a jaw-dropping 374 steals --just 12 short of the NCAA record. Ken Pomeroy did a better job than anyone else of putting Weber's dominance in perspective by looking at the numbers. We tried to capture the Man of Steal's aura here with a listicle and photoshop.

Without their starting point guard and one-man defensive wrecking crew, the Rams went from 7-0 in conference play to 12-6 --and it was brutal. St. Bonaventure hit a game-winner in Olean. La Salle won in double-overtime in the Siegel Center. Richmond won in double-overtime at the Robins Center, Dayton snuck-by 59-55 and Davidson rocked the Rams 82-55--all in the same eight days. VCU dropped three of the last four games of the regular season to fall to fifth in the Atlantic 10 heading to Brooklyn.

Forced to play on Thursday while the top four teams rested, VCU sneaked by Fordham 63-57. On Friday, they beat Richmond, who had just completed their first regular season-sweep of VCU since 2001, 70-67. On Saturday, they refaced Davidson, who nine days earlier had beaten them by 27 points. Davidson jumped out to a 16-4 lead and all seemed lost. As it is wont to do for VCU, the switch flipped and the Rams responded with a 40-12/15-0 run. The Rams won the game 93-73 completing a 47-point swing in nine days.

On Saturday, the Rams held a lead against Dayton, but Coach Archie Miller executed a near-perfect comeback strategy. With one minute remaining, Doug Brooks entered the game with zero points, three turnovers, and four fouls. On the next play, VCU showed meaningful 2-3 zone for the first time since the run to the 2011 Final Four, and Doug Brooks stole the ball and found JeQuan Lewis to give VCU a four-point lead and, ultimately, a 71-65 victory.

The Rams won four games in four days to capture the 2015 Atlantic 10 Tournament. Treveon Graham was named the most outstanding player of the tournament, and Mo Alie-Cox was named first team all-tournament.

VCU punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament for a Virginia-record fifth consecutive year and travelled to Portland as a #7 seed to face #10 Ohio State--an underperforming, veteran team, with a monster back-court. The teams battled, often using five guard lineups, and eventually sent the game to overtime. But 28 points from first team All-American and current LA Laker D'Angelo Russell were simply too much to overcome and the Buckeyes won 75-72. For the second year in a row, the Rams were upset in overtime in the first game of the NCAA Tournament.

Days later, Coach Smart announced he was leaving for University of Texas. Athletic Director Ed McLaughlin wasted little time and hired Coach Will Wade. I think Coach Smart summed it up better than anyone else:

"There's that saying, 'Don't work harder, work smarter.' Well, Will works harder and smarter. He struck me as the hardest working guy I knew. His attention to detail is second to none, and he's really good at developing relationships. I knew that Will was someone we had to have on staff here." Shaka Smart

Briante Weber and Treveon Graham both graduated and found spots on NBA D-League teams¹. Their much-needed replacements decided to look for opportunities elsewhere. All three members of VCU's star-studded recruiting class abandoned ship, and Terry Larrier transferred to UConn. But Wade cobbled together a savvy recruiting class, and the Rams entered the 2016 with the talent to make some noise.

This season hasn't been perfect. The Rams started 5-5, but their losses were to Duke, Wisconsin, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Cincinnati. Their chances for an at-large bid are threatened, but they seem to be righting the ship before conference play, which starts January 2nd against George Mason. 2016 may not be as consequential as 2015, but it guarantees to be just as entertaining. Here's how the Rams can take it to the next level.

Resolutions

The Atlantic 10 boasts six teams ranked between 42 and 68, according to KenPom.com. The league has a lot of talent, but no favorite. Dayton is 9-2 but recently lost to Chattanooga (Will Wade's former employer) at home. George Washington was off to an impressive start, but lost to DePaul 82-61 right before Christmas. Despite a rocky start, the VCU Rams are still contenders. But what would a New Year's piece be without resolutions?

Guards, guards, guards

JeQuan Lewis, Melvin Johnson, and Korey Billbury are turning into a formidable backcourt. Lewis is doing a much better job protecting the ball, Billbury's outside shot is complementing his toughness under the basket, and Melvin Johnson is simply on fire. Since going 0-of-11 against Cincinnati, he has 37 points (3-3 2PFG, 9-14 3PFG, 4-4 FT) in 41 minutes of action. He and Billbury are 59-of-132 (.447) from 3-point range. The synergy between the three is cause for hope after a 5-5 start--but they need to find consistency.

Feed the BIG dog

Mo Alie-Cox is playing well, but he's still far from his ceiling.² He finished with 18 points and eight rebounds against Davidson in the A10 Tournament before scoring 13 points on 6-of-6 shooting in the finals against Dayton. He's fallen short of that output this season.

The good news is, there's reason to think great things are about to happen. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Cincinnati have some of the biggest and longest front courts in the country. In the two games since VCU's three-game skid, Alie-Cox has 16 points on 8-of-9 shooting in 38 minutes of action. The Rams need to get him more looks--because they regularly result in easy buckets when opponents single-team him and catch-and-shoot opportunities for teammates when opponents double-team him.

3D Doug

Doug Brooks hit four straight 3-pointers and put together a strong half of defense against Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell in the 2015 NCAA Tournament. Dougie "Buckets" looked primed to be VCU's 3&D star off of the bench during the 2016 season--but his shots just haven't started falling. Last season he went 31-of-76 (.408) from 3-point range. This season he's 12-of-46 (.261). Brooks turns the ball over less on offense and steals the ball more on defense than any other Ram, if his shots start falling it could elevate VCU's second unit and the entire team.

Free-throws

Fans love to complain about VCU's free-throw shooting, but the Rams actually shoot slightly above-average from the charity stripe. Their biggest problem is getting to the line and keeping opponents off of the line.

VCU ranks 252nd in free-throws attempted per field goal attempt on offense. They rank 266th in the same stat on defense. Opponents are taking 9.3 more free-throws per 100 field goal attempts than VCU--and that's not a winning formula for a grueling conference schedule that will boast many, many one possession games. Guards other than JeQuan Lewis need to draw more fouls, something they have not done well since the graduation of Treveon Graham, and the Rams need to limit shooting fouls. If they do that, it could make the entire difference in three or four conference games.

Both could have earned more money playing international basketball, but have chosen to follow in the steps of Troy Daniels. Daniels worked tirelessly in the NBA D-League in 2014 before getting called up and hitting a game-winning 3-pointer in game 3 of the play-offs for the Houston Rockets. This season, his minutes have been limited but he's shooting .529 from 3-point range. ↩
Some may be concerned about Mo Alie-Cox's rebounding, but I think that's more of a story about the team than VCU's center. Korey Billbury is an absolute menace on the defensive glass and Justin Tillman has the potential to be one of VCU's best rebounders ever. There simply aren't enough missed shots for Alie-Cox to pad his numbers and Billbury has the added advantage of pushing the ball on the break. Overall, this is one of VCU's best rebounding teams in a long, long time. ↩

PHOTOS: VCU vs. Liberty

Will Weaver — Mon, 28 Dec 2015 16:51:44 +0000

PHOTOS: VCU vs. Buffalo

Susan Howson — Wed, 23 Dec 2015 14:00:20 +0000

VCU: A case for optimism

Aaron Williams — Tue, 22 Dec 2015 17:33:12 +0000

Photo by blmoregon.

23 Cincinnati topped VCU 69-63 in the Stuart C. Siegel Saturday. It was the Rams' third consecutive loss and they are now 5-5 for the first time in a decade. It may feel like the sky is falling on Broad Street, but here's a case for optimism.

Micro-Optimism

For starters, VCU went blow-for-blow with a top-25 team and was in it 'til the final minute, despite Jordan Burgess being sidelined with a concussion and the lack of a back-up point guard.

At times this season, the Rams have looked like they should be more aptly called the Fightin' Melvin Johnsons. Despite plenty of talent, they've played one-dimensionally, desperately needing some support around its leading scorer. Cincinnati entered Saturday with a defensive strategy called "Loading the Box on Melvin" which amounted to "Don't Let Melvin Shoot." The Bearcats limited him to just 2 points on 0-of-11 shooting. But other Rams stepped up.

Korey Billbury finished with 22 points (3-7 2PFG, 4-8 3PFG), 9 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Michael Gilmore added 9 points including two smooth 3-pointers. Cincy's two centers and a power forward combined for 14 fouls mostly because they couldn't handle the physical presence of Mo Alie-Cox who finished with 10 points and 5 rebounds.

Finally, JeQuan Lewis, who turned the ball over 13 times in 42 minutes against Florida St. and Georgia Tech, finished with 13 points, 4 assists, and just one turnover. VCU trailed by 10 points with under four minutes remaining but Lewis scored six points in 45 seconds to spark a near comeback. All game, he showed a level of poise not seen by him since last season's run in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

Most teams lack the individual perimeter defenders and mobile big men to effectively run that defensive game plan against Melvin Johnson--he'll be back to his scoring ways starting Tuesday against Buffalo in the Siegel Center. If Billbury and Lewis can use Saturday as a springboard for future success, then VCU will improve. The Lewis-Johnson-Billbury triple-threat has been reason #1 to be bullish on VCU, it may be a little late to arrive, but its potential is not lost.

Macro-Optimism

He's done a tremendous job. I know you say, "Hold on, look, they're five and five," but I told him he better get control of the schedule. Scheduling and recruiting are one and one in this business, and they obviously scheduled extremely tough. He's gonna be coaching for a long time. His guys play hard for him. It's tough when you lose [Treveon Graham] and [Briante Weber] and then come in in your first year and play against that type of schedule. Cincinnati Coach Mick Cronin

VCU is no stranger to tough schedules, but this season is different. Usually the Rams stumble during an impossible November before recovering against much easier opponents in December. Only this season, the opponents didn't get easier as Christmas approached. At MTSU, vs. FSU, at Georgia Tech, and vs. #23 Cincinnati is simply a level of schedule not imaginable even five years ago at VCU.

Team	Record	Ken Pom Rank	Top 100 Games	Top 50 Games
Dayton	8–2	35	7	3
GW	10–1	40	4	2
URI	7–4	54	4	3
VCU	5–5	58	6	4
UR	7–3	65	5	2
Davidson	7–2	75	2	2
SJU	8–2	78	3	2
SBU	7–2	100	1	1
Fordham	9–1	109	1	1
UMass	6–4	121	3	0
Duquesne	10–2	135	1	1
GMU	5–7	189	4	1
SLU	5–5	208	2	2
La Salle	4–4	241	1	1

There are lots of different ways to be 5-5 and lots of ways to be 10-2. I don't think any fan of VCU basketball would trade VCU's season so far for Duquesne. This is why former coach Shaka Smart constantly advocated for process-based evaluation over outcome-based evaluation. VCU will improve and their opponents will get a little easier, which is why I'm still buying VCU to finish well above .500.

This isn't to sugarcoat reality. VCU has inconsistent point guard play, they foul way too much, they don't take enough free throws, and they hit too few free-throws when they get to the line. But to pretend that any of Smart's teams didn't have glaring weaknesses is to look at the past with rose-colored glasses. As Coach Wade put it on Saturday, "Even with Burgess, we've got warts."

But the typically candid coach is still bullish on VCU. "I know what we're doing now is going to work. We've got the right formula now," says Wade. "Now we just need to do it better."

When a team returns a coach and lots of players, it's tough to see paths for dramatic improvement after about ten games spent holding the roster constant. Usually, there just isn't a enough low-hanging fruit. But VCU is working on replacing Treveon Graham, Briante Weber, and Terry Larrier while adjusting to a system that is more different than Smart's version of HAVOC! than anyone could have anticipated. For example, VCU played half-court defense for the first 36 minutes on Saturday. That at least leaves more chances than in years past for mid-season improvement.

At the very least, Wade was on to something when he said, "Moving forward, there's no one else we'll play that has the type of length that those guys have." This will make the biggest difference for Mo Alie-Cox whose emergence last season fueled VCU's improvement after losing Briante Weber. Like a home-run hitter removing the doughnut before stepping to the plate, Mo Alie-Cox is about to return to a world where players simply lack the physical tools to deal with his imposing size. This will force teams into the unenviable problem of letting him score one-on-one or double-teaming and letting him pass the ball to shooters waiting at the 3-point line.

A moment of pessimism

VCU swung and missed on its non-conference schedule, which could threaten its attempt at a state-record sixth-consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. Unless the Rams absolutely clean up the conference schedule to the tune of 15+ wins, their only ticket to the Big Dance will be repeating as A10 Tournament Champions--a steep challenge considering the conference's depth this season.

Your final words of reality

Teams are always better than they seem after losses and worse than they seem after victories. For a program not accustomed to losing, it's easy to let pessimism snowball during an agonizing three-game losing streak. VCU won't run every team out of the gym this season and they'll certainly still take a few blows, but there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. At the very least, fans have twelve more opportunities to visit the Stu and hear the Peppas play "Africa"--and that is more than can be said for most basketball programs in the entire nation.