The week ahead: dry, warm fall weather. Plus, a look at NOAA’s winter forecast.

Weather Dan — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 19:34:51 +0000

While Richmond is trying to shake off some lingering showers this morning, there's much better news in store for this weekend and next week.

This morning's showers are thanks to a cold front that's been crossing Virginia since Thursday afternoon. Clear skies lurk behind the front, and we'll see an area of high pressure set up over the eastern United States for the better part of the week.

Temperatures will take a dip toward the average over the weekend, bt it's hard for me to complain about a weekend with sunny skies and highs near 70. We will warm back up by the end of next week, and may make a run at 80 by next Thursday or Friday. Frost won't be a concern overnight unless some outlying areas are able to dip well into the 30s, which doesn't seem likely right now.

NOAA's Winter Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmopheric Administration released their winter outlook on Thursday. The big story is that while a developing El Nino pattern--a period of water than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean--had been expected to develop through the fall, the indications now are that the progression will be more neutral. El Nino winters tend to be wetter and cooler--remember 2009-10?--ENSO-neutral winters are sometimes wetter but more mild. The climate indicators that will influence where our winter goes are yet to develop. So, their forecast for our part of the county gives equal chances of warmer/colder and wetter/drier winters.

So, truthfully, there's not a lot of guidance here. As for my winter outlook, I'll have that ready to go in two weeks. Get ready!

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