RVANews

Vacancy funding: The other type of deficit

Aaron Williams — Wed, 20 Apr 2016 16:13:20 +0000

Unlike the federal government, Virginia and the City of Richmond are required by law to pass "balanced budgets." This means that revenues must more or less meet expenses. But debts can come in denominations other than dollars and cents, and budgets that are balanced can be stuffed full of deficits. All too often, "balanced budgets" contain the deficits of deferred maintenance or departments starved of talented civil servants, which can compound over time and come due, with interest, just like a bond.

In Richmond, years of structural deficits mean many of these debts are coming due, and at the same time, many new debts are being made. For an example of what's coming due, look no further than the talk of the town: Richmond City Public Schools.

New schools need about $1.40 to $1.60 per square foot for annual maintenance while older buildings, of which RPS has many, need close to $4.00 per square foot per year. For a long time, Richmond was spending $0.06 per square foot on maintenance according to Richmond Forward's Garet Prior. Now, RPS faces maintenance and facilities costs that will likely far exceed those neglected annual appropriations.

Superintendent Dana Bedden and City Council seem committed to making investments today in order to improve schools and bend the future cost curve. Last year, City Council gave $9 million additional dollars on top of Mayor Jones's approved budget to RPS. Part of the way they did this was by cutting $9.2 million in vacancy spending from other departments. But this creates another deficit which is adding up and taking on interest every day.

Each year, the city funds vacant positions in departments and the money is used to hire new full-time and temporary employees, pay for overtime, and increase administrative pay. In the past, the funding was also used as a slush fund to pay for snow removal and leaf collection since those services didn't have line-items in the budget. Cutting this funding isn't as direct as cutting filled positions, but it can eliminate a lot of positions over time.

According to the RTD, the city had 3,630 filled and 582 open full-time positions to start 2015. 146 of those empty positions were in public utilities and 134 were in public works.

Building institutional knowledge, empowering employees to specialize, and staffing departments with a diversity of skills, ages, and experience requires consistent and predictable funding. This is paramount to building efficient government. When the little things are neglected, extra costs like all-star teams and consultants for fixing poorly implemented financial systems add up -- just like interest on debt.

In a city that is geographically confined, where power is constrained by the state, and revenues are limited, it's impossible to truly balance the budget. Budgets are the formalization of the trade-offs in what deficits and debts are most tolerable -- between deferring school maintenance and employee attrition, or at-risk water systems and an aging workforce.

Local lawmakers have lots of important decisions to make over the next few weeks. Regardless of what happens, Richmond's structural budget issues mean something is going to be neglected and whatever it is will come due in a few years. With interest.

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VCU: A microcosm of the season

Aaron Williams — Fri, 25 Mar 2016 13:28:52 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

VCU's season ended Sunday afternoon in Oklahoma City in an 85-81 NCAA Tournament heartbreaker to Oklahoma, after a furious double-digit comeback. In many ways, the game was a microcosm of the season.

Just like VCU's slow 5-5 start in November and December, the Rams trailed 21-7 after the opening minutes and memories of Michigan in 2013 haunted hopes of any comeback. VCU looked outmanned in every facet of the game. The Sooners turned the paint into a no-fly zone, their transition defense was dominant, and they threw up an alley-oop and a couple of impressive dunks.

But then an unlikely lineup, including the fearless Doug Brooks and the almost forgotten Michael Gilmore, sparked the Rams. Brooks hit two 3-pointers and went after Buddy Hield--the favorite for national player of the year. Brooks hadn't hit a 3-pointer since February 19th and Sunday was his best game since hitting four 3-pointers and defending now NBA star D'Angelo Russell in the 2015 NCAA Tournament.

Michael Gilmore was even better. He slammed an early alley-oop from JeQuan Lewis and started grabbing rebounds when the rest of VCU couldn't even buy a board. The surprise lineup cut the lead to five points, but Mo Alie-Cox spent too much of the first half on the bench with one foul and Oklahoma entered the locker room with a 13-point lead. But like the December loss to Cincinnati, the Rams' process looked promising but they weren't seeing the results yet.

In the second half, the Rams put together a comeback that was the quintessence of VCU--despite the outcome. They put up 50 fearless points after intermission and played truly inspired basketball. Returning to the lineup, Alie-Cox went to work with a nimble drive turned thunderous dunk.

Michael Gilmore hit two 3-pointers and continued skying for improbable rebounds. He had played 14 minutes in VCU's last ten games and hadn't scored since February 6th but finished with 12 points (2-2 2PFG, 2-2 3PFG, 2-2 FT) and eight rebounds in 20 minutes.

Senior Melvin Johnson entered Sunday having made just five of his last 38 3-point attempts (.132). In the second half he caught fire and hit four 3-pointers en route to 23 points. The Rams were running on all cylinders.

Gilmore, Alie-Cox, and Johnson all made a difference on the margin, but VCU's anchor this entire past weekend was JeQuan Lewis. Confirming what was obvious early in the season, the team goes as he goes. He played all 40 minutes on Sunday and finished with 22 points (7-10 2PFG, 2-5 3PFG, 2-2 FT), nine assists, four rebounds, two steals, and five turnovers. He finished the weekend with 43 points (11-16 2PFG, 5-10 3PFG, 6-6 FT), 11 rebounds, 17 assists, four steals, and nine turnovers and only spent four minutes on the bench.

With 8:10 remaining, VCU took a 65-63 lead on Gilmore free-throws. But Buddy Hield, who finished with 36 points, responded with a 3-pointer. The Rams responded as well, and a JeQuan Lewis steal with 4:24 remaining turned into a Mo Alie-Cox and-1--but it was waived off and called a travel. On the next possession a soft Jordan Burgess foul on Hield solidified a five point swing and crushed the Rams' momentum. The Rams would cut it to three, but Oklahoma was able to hold off the comeback and win 85-81.

The game ended the way the season ended--with a profound sense of outperforming expectations and remarkable hope for next season. Finishing 25-11, winning a game in the NCAA Tournament, and going toe-to-toe with one of the best teams and one of the best players in the country would have been an accomplishment for any VCU team. But this year was a special journey of outpacing expectations.

The Rams were picked to finish 5th in the Atlantic 10 and the pick wasn't without cause. VCU lost its star coach, Briante Weber, Treveon Graham, its best prospect in Terry Larrier, and an exciting recruiting class, including #58 Tevin Mack (Texas), #97 Kenny Williams (UNC), and #166 Jordan Murphy (Minnesota).

When Will Wade announced that "HAVOC still lives here," he inherited a depleted roster. Even Justin Tillman had announced his intentions to leave VCU. The 33-year-old coach retained Tillman and quickly added Korey Billbury and Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed. The team struggled at first, but his deliberate inside-out offense showed promise, and the Rams improved on defense every week even as they forced fewer and fewer turnovers. Sunday they finished the season as co-A10 champs and added a much-needed victory in the NCAA Tournament with Friday's win over Oregon State.

The Rams lose sharp-shooter Melvin Johnson and graduate transfer do-everything man Korey Billbury, but return a talented team with loads of potential. This season was Will Wade's overnight miracle--his history paper that earns an A after one all-nighter. Next season, he will see the residuals of his day-to-day work. His obsession with details means the little things will compound over time into something even greater.

Outpacing expectations but still having justified hope for the future is a luxury in sports. VCU has done an exceptional job creating a program that is so much bigger than any one piece, and it seems to just chug along. Next year, Wade will have to deal with the burden of expectations, but this season he proved himself capable and then some. The long wait to November begins with a distinct feeling of satisfaction and an insatiable hunger for more.

5 Stats

VCU and Kansas are the only two teams to win 24 games each of the last ten seasons
The Rams have made the NCAA Tournament eight of the last 10 seasons and have won nine games over that stretch (Duke, USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State, Kansas, Wichita State, Akron, Oregon State).
VCU put up the 7th most efficient game of the season against Oklahoma. That's impressive considering the Big 12 boats the 2nd, 10th, 13th, 31st, 35th, and 44th most efficient offenses in the country (OK is 14th).
Melvin Johnson finished the season with 110 3-pointers, which is tied for 8th nationally and is the second best season in VCU history.
Briante Weber led the nation in steal percentage for four consecutive seasons--something truly dominant according to KenPom. Doug Brooks finished the season ranked #1 nationally in steal percentage, which means a VCU player has dominated that stat for five consecutive seasons.

March Madness: Getting back to winning

Aaron Williams — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 17:34:34 +0000

The most important data to know

10th-seeded VCU will take-on 7th-seeded Oregon State Friday afternoon in Oklahoma City. The game will be broadcast on TNT at 1:30 PM.

And now, the other stuff

This season, the Rams extended their improbable and impressive run of success at winning games and getting to the NCAA Tournament, but it's been a few years since they won a tournament game.

"We gotta get back to winning. We haven't won one in a couple of years." Coach Wade

Friday will be VCU's eighth trip in the last 10 years to the NCAA Tournament, and they're just one of seven teams to go dancing each of the last six seasons. The consistency is remarkable --especially since four of those bids have been "at-large."

And for years, those bids were more than tourist trips and participation trophies. There was the dagger against Duke and overtime against Pitt in 2007. There was the missed game-winner against UCLA in 2009. In 2011, the Rams won five games en route to the Final Four. In 2012, they beat the Wichita State team that was supposed to be "that year's VCU" before giving offensive juggernaut Indiana its toughest defensive test of the season. Finally, in 2013 they set the record for
margin of victory for a team not seeded 1 or 2 by beating Akron by 46 points (a record they held for an hour).

Since then, the Rams have been upset by 12th-seeded Stephen F. Austin and 10th-seeded Ohio State. Winning in March is a gift, not a privilege, but a win on Friday would cap off an incredible season while taking back the crown as March's ultimate underdog.

Frequent flyer miles

VCU's consistency of invitations is only exceeded by consistency of distances the Rams have been forced to travel.¹

Year	2nd Round Location	Roundtrip Distance
2011	Chicago	1600 miles
2012	Portland	5,400 miles
2013	Auburn Hills	1,300 miles
2014	San Diego	5,200 miles
2015	Portland	5,400 miles
2016	Oklahoma City	2,600 miles²

The top four seeds in each region get geographic preference, so VCU needs to win more games if the Rams want to guarantee games closer to home. While fans let out a collective groan, Tulsa native Korey Billbury is having a good week. He transferred from Oral Roberts so he could go to an NCAA Tournament--check. And, it's in his back yard--bonus.

Putting Brooklyn to bed

Maybe putting Brooklyn way in the rearview mirror is exactly what VCU needs after struggling against Saint Joseph's 87-74 Sunday afternoon. The Hawks dismantled the Rams for most of the game and the margin could have easily been greater than 20 had VCU not had six straight free-throws after Papa Ndao was ejected for yelling at a ref.

Saint Joseph's executed a great game plan. On defense they quickly double- and triple-teamed Mo Alie-Cox on every post touch. He didn't find any looks early and he struggled to kick it to open shooters--especially with Melvin Johnson limited to one leg.

The Hawks were even better on offense. Their unconventional big men, Isaiah Miles and Pierfrancesco Oliva, stretched the floor with their jump shots and Saint Joseph's ran pick-and-rolls, back-door cuts, and high-low action to get layup after layup. The Hawks finished with 1.23 points per possession, 19 assists, and 72% shooting from 2-point range.

"We just gotta play better. We were just tired. We were a step slow. There are no real adjustments." Coach Wade

It's all about Gary Payton II

Oregon State is led by Gary Payton II, who is averaging 15.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 5.1 APG, and 2.5 SPG. Like his NBA hall-of-fame father, Payton is an exceptional defender whose quick hands are Briante Weber-esque and 6-foot-6 wingspan allows him to block shots despite his height only be ing 6-foot-2. He is a two-time Pac 12 defensive player of the year.

GP2 is also an able offensive player. He lacks a 3-point shot, but can play above the rim. He lacks height but can play all over the court--including on and off the ball. And he is a great point guard who runs what Coach Wade called, "as good of offense as we'll see all year." Think St. Bonaventure, but with better big men.

"I'm going to try to pick his brain after the season on some of his offensive stuff. I gotta get his cell phone number when we're out there."Coach Wade on Coach Tinkle

Olaf Schaftenaar, a 6-foot-10 stretch power forward who can hit the 3-pointer and do a little of everything else, is an able complement to Payton II. Their combined senior leadership has been invaluable for a team that's talented but young.

Freshmen Stephen Thompson and Drew Eubanks are two other players to watch. Thompson is an able shooting guard averaging 16 points per game over the last four games, and Eubanks is a super athletic, 6-foot-10 center with a 32 inch standing vertical.

The Beavers, who are dancing for the first time in 26 years, finished 9-9 in the strong Pac 12 Conference, including a win over #1-seed Oregon back in January.

Getting back to winning

March is about match-ups. Just this weekend, the Rams had a favorable matchup against Davidson and won by 22 points, and they also had an unfavorable matchup with Saint Joseph's and lost by 13 points. Friday is a favorable matchup compared to years past--and it's on Friday which gives VCU more time to rest and Melvin Johnson more time to heal.

The Rams will be most successful if they are able to establish an early post presence with Mo Alie-Cox before allowing their perimeter to start slashing to the rim and taking corner 3-pointers. Those 3-pointers will be important when Oregon State, who switches defenses, goes zone.

On the defensive end, slowing down GP2 needs to be priority number one. Korey Billbury has gone from not really playing defense to capable defender in the course of a season, and he could see plenty of time on the Beavers' star. But like any great player, Payton is exceptional at getting others involved when a team over commits.

Friday is a 50-50 game. Play defense and force a couple things the way of VCU, and the Rams will have a good shot at getting back to winning.

Predictions

KenPom picks VCU to win 71-69 with a 41% chance of victory. FiveThirtyEight give the Rams a 73% chance of victory.

Maybe this is the CAA's cosmic way of getting back at VCU for years of the Rams getting hometown advantage in the conference tournament. ↩
One of the defining moments of my college experience was road-tripping to Dayton and Chicago during the 2011 NCAA Tournament. I'm a little sad for VCU students right now. ↩

A-10 Tournament: It could be anyone’s crown

Aaron Williams — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 18:39:42 +0000

One year ago, 5th-seeded VCU limped to Brooklyn after losing three of their last four games, including a 27-point dismantling at the hands of Davidson. Somehow, VCU won four games in four days to take the A10 Tournament Championship. Like last season, the 2016 Atlantic 10 Tournament feels like a true free-for-all.

Click to embiggen!

Sure, there are favorites, but there are at least six teams that are plausible champions. For starters, three teams finished in 1st place in the A-10 this season.

But the losses make things seem even more wide open. The top four teams had five losses to double-digit seeds this season. Dayton lost to La Salle. VCU lost to UMass and George Mason. Saint Bonaventure lost to La Salle, and Saint Joseph's lost to Duquesne. Many of the top teams also stumbled down the stretch. Dayton started 11-1 before losing 3 times in February. VCU started 9-0 before finishing 5-4. Saint Joseph's lost to Duquesne on Saturday to lose a share of the title.

Team	Seed	Preseason Poll	Change
Dayton	1	1	-
VCU	2	5	3
SBU	3	8	5
SJU	4	7	3
GW	5	4	-1
Davidson	6	3	-3
URI	7	2	-5
Fordham	8	14	6
UR	9	6	-3
UMass	10	10	-
Duquesne	11	11	-
GMU	12	13	-1
SLU	13	12	1
La Salle	14	9	-5

Dayton is the top seed, but VCU is the favorite according to Ken Pomeroy. The Rams have the highest probability of cutting down the nets, but it's way more likely that they won't be crowned champions than they will. VCU has the advantage because of its balance between offense and defense.

If everything goes to plan, VCU and Dayton will work their way through the bracket and rematch Saturday's 68-67 overtime battle on Sunday afternoon. But VCU has work to do. The Rams turn into a stick in mud when they start fouling--and they foul way too often. This is less of a problem when HAVOC! is HAVOC!ing but the Rams have forced fewer turnovers of late.

Finally, the Rams' offense needs to play to its potential--and it starts with decision-making and connectivity. VCU opened their game against Dayton with three 3-pointers, thanks to impressive ball movement and selfless play. The rest of the game, they shot an eFG%¹ of .351 and scored .795 points per possession. It's pretty simple, every possession in which Mo Alie-Cox touches the ball is a good possession, and the Rams can always make one more pass in their four-guard lineup. If their offense starts flowing like it did in January, then it will be tough for anyone to defeat them.

VCU has been to the finals of the CAA or A-10 Tournament each of the past five seasons. While past performance does not guarantee future results, that's still impressive. Consider this: their 2011 opponent (ODU) has fired its coach, their 2012 opponent (Drexel) has fired its coach, and their 2013 opponent (SLU) is 21-41 over the last two season. Something is going on at VCU, and it's generating a startling and consistent amount of March madness.

Last year's tournament victory was a reminder that anything can happen in Brooklyn, and it certainly benefitted VCU. This year is no different--but it could go the opposite direction. There's no way to know until the round ball hits the hardwood and everything gets settled in Brooklyn. See you on Friday at 6:30 PM.

Effective field goal percentage is the same as FG% except it adds an extra 0.5 weight to 3-pointers since they are worth 50% more than 2-pointers. ↩

VCU: The pressure is a privilege

Aaron Williams — Fri, 04 Mar 2016 16:46:19 +0000

Photos by: Will Weaver

Things could be a whole lot worse. Scratch that--things have been a whole lot worse. But VCU enters the final game of the regular season with at worst a share of the regular season title and an opportunity to pick up a prime-time win over Dayton on Saturday night. There's a little more pressure on the Rams now that the stakes have been raised, but that isn't exactly a bad thing.

It wasn't that long ago that, as Coach Wade put it, "everyone thought the world was on fire." Days after Coach Shaka Smart took a one-way trip to Austin, Coach Wade inherited a program that lost its best perimeter defender ever, its second-best scorer ever, a talent-rich rising sophomore, and its best-ever recruiting class. Broad Street wasn't exactly brimming with confidence.

A few months later, VCU lost at home to Cincinnati to cap off a three-game losing streak and fell to 5-5. Coach Wade was bullish after the loss and boldly proclaimed "I know what we're doing now is going to work. We've got the right formula, now we just need to do it better."

I'm not sure if even Coach Wade expected what's happened since.

But here they are. If they lose on Saturday, VCU wins a share of the A10 title and at worst a #2-seed in Brooklyn. A win gives them an outright title and a guaranteed #1-seed. It'd be VCU's first conference title since 2009 -- before Coach Smart even took the job at VCU.

Shoot, we were in here a couple months ago after we played Cincinnati...who'd have bet on that? Any takers on that? No, I don't think we'd had any takers if I said we'd win the conference.¹ Coach Wade

Senior Melvin Johnson is unquestionably reason #1 the Rams have been so successful. This season, he combined the attacking craftiness of his freshman campaign that earned his floater the name "The Melvin" with the 3-point shooting of his sophomore and junior seasons while adding point guard skills and improving his defense. Against Davidson on Wednesday, his 3-point shot wasn't falling which in the past meant his impact might have been limited. Instead, he finished with 16 points (5-6 2PFG) and 4 assists.

Senior Korey Billbury, who transferred to VCU from Oral Roberts when it felt like everyone was leaving, also deserves credit. He showed up this summer as a scorer--and not much else. On Wednesday, he did an exceptional job defending Jack Gibbs, the A10's best scorer. He's had a few frustrating games on offense this season, but his ability to impact the game in every way possible has earned him every second he's spent on the hardwood. After getting frustrated earlier this week, Coach Wade reminded Billbury to "have some perspective, buddy, you could be the seven seed in the Summit League Tournament starting this week."

This ain't the best team we've had here in awhile in terms of talent, but we're tough, we're together, and we play really hard.Coach Wade

VCU did an exceptional job coming together under tough circumstances and putting them in a position to compete when it matters. Coach Wade deserves credit. The seniors deserve credit. VCU, a true program, deserves credit.

Saturday won't be easy. Dayton is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and they own one of the best arenas in college basketball. One of their better players, Kendall Pollard missed some games because of injury, which has caused them to stumble, but they started the A10 11-1 and rose all the way to #13/#15 in the country. Add in senior night, and the environment will be a pressure cooker.

But pressure isn't bad. As Coach Wade pointed out on Wednesday, "the pressure is a privilege...there's no pressure if you're just playing the season out." This summer and even in December, it looked like VCU might just be playing the season out at this point. Coach Wade, Melvin Johnson, Korey Billbury, and crew weathered the defections and tough defeats, and built something special really quickly. Saturday's pressure is a privilege well-earned.

I didn't think they would win the conference, but I wrote "VCU: A case for optimism" right after that loss. ↩

VCU: Opportunity knocks, and they’re dunking it

Aaron Williams — Wed, 24 Feb 2016 17:52:29 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver.

VCU topped cross-town rival Richmond 87-74 Friday night in the Stuart C. Siegel Center. The Rams executed one of their best offensive performances of the season driven by opportunity-seizing contributions off of the bench by Justin Tillman and Jordan Burgess. On Sunday, a new opportunity presented itself as #15 Dayton and Saint Joseph's both lost, which cedes sole possession of first place to the Rams.

There are lots of cliches about opportunity. Most of them skip over the most import part: execution. VCU has been preparing hard in the film room and gym, and it's certainly put itself in a place where lots of consequential things are happening, but none of that matters without execution. On Friday they executed, and moving forward, they will need to continue executing if they hope to win VCU's first regular season title since 2009.

Before VCU even took the court against Richmond, a student seized opportunity when he hit a layup, a free-throw, a 3-pointer, and a half-court shot in only five attempts to win 7,637 fans free pizza. The prolific Papa Johns shootout performance even interrupted VCU's pregame huddle-- but sometimes inspiration is more important than last second reminders about the game plan.

Maybe it was that inspiration or extra hard work in the gym, but Justin Tillman seized opportunity. His minutes have been limited since VCU's loss to George Washington. On Friday he had three dunks in the first five minutes and 15 points in the first half. His fourth bucket came on a beautiful shot off of the backboard that showcased a never-before-seen dimension of his face-up game. More good things are surely to come.

Jordan Burgess also seized opportunity. His role has diminished this season, particularly after missing six games during VCU's 9-0 start in conference play. On Friday, he hit three 3-pointers in the first half and finished with 14 points (1-1 2PFG, 4-5 3PFG), five rebounds, two assists, and a steal. He was 0-of-8 from 3-point range in the 2016 calendar year and 9-of-40 (.225) on the season.

Jordan Burgess was huge for us. That's what happens when you keep working. You work yourself out of slumps and you make things happen. You gotta make it happen. No one is going to do it for you. He gets in there every morning at 6:30 or 7:00 AM and works out and shoots. He stays after practice and works out and shoots. Coach Wade

The extra spark off the bench was the difference for VCU as they scored an incendiary 1.28 points per possession. Melvin Johnson (22), Justin Tillman (15), Jordan Burgess (14), JeQuan Lewis (13), and Mo Alie-Cox (12) all finished in double figures, and the Rams shot 24-of-44 from 2-point range, 11-of-22 from 3-point range, and 6-of-6 from the free-throw line. Furthermore, VCU rebounded 15 of their 31 missed shots. The only thing keeping them from dropping a century on the Spiders was 14 turnovers.

Friday's win put the pressure on #15 Dayton and Saint Joseph's who were both effectively tied with VCU for first place in the Atlantic 10. Dayton was the first to fall, courtesy of 31 points, six rebounds, six assists, and two steals from St. Bonaventure sophomore Jaylen Adams. After starting the season 21-3, the Flyers have dropped two games in one week and still have games against URI, UR, and VCU. Two hours later, Saint Joseph's fell 99-93 to Davidson, due to 35 points from scoring sensation Jack Gibbs.

Saturday was as good a day as VCU could have without even playing a game. The Rams are back in sole possession of first place in the conference. Four games stand between Coach Wade and something Coach Smart was never able to do--win the conference and earn a #1 seed in a conference tournament. The Rams have an opportunity, now comes the tricky part: execution.

VCU: The two stages of grief

Aaron Williams — Fri, 19 Feb 2016 12:27:09 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

VCU hosts Richmond in the Stuart C. Siegel Center on Friday night at 7:00 PM in round two of RVA's cross-town rivalry. When these two teams met about a month ago, the game unravelled after Richmond's careless technical foul for having six players on the court. The Rams seized on the mistake and stole victory from jaws of defeat.¹ A lot has happened to VCU since that game, the most important being that they've learned a few lessons about accountability and improvement.

Getting over it and getting better

VCU's 12-game winning streak after starting 5-5 was an emotional ride that abruptly ended with back-to-back losses last week to a good George Washington team and a not-so-good Massachusetts team.

The five stages of grief are a popular concept: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. After losing to the Minutemen, the Rams had plenty of reasons to go through all five stages, but instead they went through an abbreviated two-step program of accountability and improvement. They got over it and got better. Both were showcased on Saturday night.

VCU's players usually attend press conferences before Coach Wade. On Saturday, Coach Wade exemplified accountability when he attended the press conference before the players and delivered an emphatic monologue.

The improvement was exemplified by their 33-point dismantling of St. Louis and 16-point victory over sneaky-good Rhode Island. I gave the Rams four New Year's resolutions earlier this season. After enigmatic play in their two losses, the Rams have doubled down and improved on at least three of the four.

Guards, guards, guards

The three-headed monster of JeQuan Lewis, Melvin Johnson, and Korey Billbury is tough to defend. After the UMass loss, Coach Wade had the interesting idea to add Jonathan Williams to the starting lineup. The results on offense have been sensational. VCU scored 1.19 points per possession over the last two games and the starting lineup has been on fire. Against St. Louis they scored 16 points before the first timeout and against Rhode Island they started 5-of-5 from the field.

Williams gives VCU another driver, but more importantly he enables Lewis, Johnson, and Billbury to space out behind the 3-point line. The small ball won't always work, especially on defense, but it gives the league's most efficient offense another high octane scoring dimension.

Feed the BIG Dog

Mo Alie-Cox has turned into an absolute machine. He ranks 7th in the A-10 in offensive rating, 1st in effective field goal percentage, 8th in block percentage, and 1st in free-throw rate. He finished with 21 points (10-12 FG) and five rebounds in 22 minutes against Rhode Island's Hassan Martin, one of the best defenders in the league.

He played plenty of minutes in the Rams' two losses, but they were his 3rd and 4th least used games in conference play on a possession-by-possession basis. The more he touches the ball, the better.

3D Doug

Doug Brooks struggled in the non-conference schedule, but is turning into a force off of the bench and is the Rams' X-factor moving forward. He is shooting 16-of-47 (.340) from 3-point range and stealing the ball on 8.9 percent of possessions in conference play. On Tuesday, he stole the ball seven times in 20 minutes (!) while doling out four assists. His somersault going to halftime exemplified his role as VCU's eternal sparkplug. Brooks isn't expected to carry the load, but he is the straw that breaks the camel's back. He is the marginal contribution that pushes VCU to the next level.

Free throws

OK, this is one area where the Rams still have work to do. They still foul too much but foul a little less than earlier in the season, they get fouled too little but get fouled a little more than earlier in the season, and they miss way too many free throws--something they've just done all season. It is beyond me why a program that has relied on guard-heavy rosters for years has always struggled with free throws. Hopefully moving forward, they miss when it doesn't matter and make when it does matter.

Friday

VCU forfeited its one game lead in the conference and is now in a three-way tie with #15 Dayton and St. Joseph's, but the Rams learned a few things along the way. The losses forced them to add another dimension with four true guards. It forced them to deal with losing after not losing for a ridiculously long time. Add in their experience in close games from earlier in the season and the fact that they are now in their natural habitat of being the hunter instead of the hunted, and the Rams aren't going to be a fun team to play come March--or Friday for that matter.

I chronicled Richmond's bizarre roster before the first matchup. The tl;dr version is simple: the Spiders can score in bunches but their defense isn't worth much. They're coming off a tough loss to Davidson--a game where the Wildcats only had seven scholarship players and were missing scoring sensation Jack Gibbs.

But rivalries are rivalries. ODU and Richmond have always had a way of defying gravity against VCU during seasons when the Monarchs and Spiders have otherwise struggled. Motivation won't be in short supply: The Spiders blew it at home against the Rams this season. The game will be on ESPN2. The aforementioned tough loss to a middling Davidson squad.

Forget stats, records, and ratings. Friday will be about two quality teams in the midst of a golden age of their rivalry battling it out for crosstown bragging rights. After the game, hopefully VCU will have fewer reasons to be accountable and more reasons to applaud improvement than they did a week ago.

Or Richmond stole defeat from the jaws of victory. It depends on how much you embrace Richmondfreude. ↩

VCU: The long game

Aaron Williams — Thu, 11 Feb 2016 18:39:19 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

VCU dropped its first game in 49 days when it lost to George Washington 72-69 Saturday afternoon in the Stuart C. Siegel Center. The loss, which snapped the third longest winning streak in the country, is no reason to panic, but it highlights the importance of match-ups and continued improvement.

Coach Shaka Smart had message discipline that would have made any of the campaign managers currently in South Carolina or Nevada jealous. One of his oft-repeated talking points was about the importance of match-ups relative to records, conference standings, rankings, or seeds. The right or wrong match-up can mean victory or defeat. Match-ups can mean Final Four runs or first weekend upsets in the NCAA Tournament.

VCU has struggled against long, athletic teams this season. Opponents like Florida State and Cincinnati, which have the length to challenge the Rams' passing while also defending the rim, have been able to reduce VCU's usually-crisp offense to fruitless dribbling around the perimeter.

George Washington has more in common with the Seminoles and Bearcats than they have in common with other teams in the Atlantic 10. The Colonials start a 6-foot-6 shooting guard and a 6-foot-8 small forward alongside one of the biggest and most skilled front-courts in the conference. Their center is 6-foot-10 and 265 pounds but is mobile enough to slow down VCU's drivers and physically imposing enough to limit Mo Alie-Cox and Justin Tillman.

On Saturday, the Rams weren't able to get the mismatches they wanted on offense, weren't able to finish at the rim, and the Colonials' used their length to deny entry passes to Mo Alie-Cox. VCU is shooting .518 from 2-point range in conference play but finished 16-of-43 (.372) against GW.

The combination of good ball-handling and GW's size also punished the Rams on the other end of court. The Rams couldn't force enough turnovers to keep GW out of the half-court which meant VCU had to defend 6-foot-10 Kevin Larsen and 6-foot-9 Tyler Cavanaugh. Their interior was such a handful that Patricio Garino scored 27 points on easy catch-and-shoot 3-pointer after easy catch-and-shoot 3-pointer.

Data from KenPom.com back up this story. "Effective height" weights a team's height based on the number of minutes played by different sized players. If a team has a 7-foot center that plays 20 minutes and a 6-foot-8 center that plays 20 minutes, then the effective height is 6-foot-10. It's a more accurate measure than average height because players like 7-footer DJ Haley couldn't skew the average of VCU's usually undersized lineups under Coach Smart.

VCU has struggled against teams with effective height significantly greater than the NCAA average this season¹.

Opponent	VCU's Margin	Effective Height Compared to Avg.	National Rank
FSU	-5	4.62	10
Duke	-8	4.25	13
GW	-3	2.56	38
Cincy	-6	1.45	75
GMU	24	1.37	82
GT	-13	1.19	88
Duquesne	22	1.13	90
UNF	12	0.92	105
Wisconsin	-1	0.92	106
Richmond	5 (OT)	0.84	112

Coach Will Wade has some message discipline as well. His talking point? Continued improvement.

At this point, VCU can't pick its opponents, but it can focus on improving. The Rams have the potential to boast the best offense and defense in the conference, but their defense has been slipping. On Tuesday, Coach Wade summed it up, "Our offense has really been bailing us out. Our defense has been getting progressively worse, especially in the second half."

Two weeks ago, VCU forfeited a 22 point lead to Davidson. Last week, the Rams allowed La Salle to score more than one point per possession--the Explorers have won one game since before Thanksgiving. Saturday, the hens came to roost as George Washington scored 43 points in the second half and VCU's offense didn't have enough juice to compensate. "Our offense wasn't able to bail us out because our offense was just as bad if not worse on Saturday. We weren't sharing the ball. We weren't moving it side-to-side. We weren't getting it in the paint."

Fortunately, the Rams face Massachusetts on Thursday and Saint Louis on Saturday. No game is easy, especially on the road like Thursday's game, but the not-as-terrifying-as-others opponents should give VCU the opportunity to get back to VCU basketball.

The Rams need to start forcing turnovers and speeding up opponents again. They need to start feeding Mo-Alie Cox on post-ups/pick-and-rolls and Justin Tillman on dump-offs. JeQuan Lewis, Korey Billbury, and Melvin Johnson need to get back to their role as Cerebus, the three-headed mythical monster that guards Hades. Most importantly, VCU needs to get back to what made VCU, VCU: defense.

"We're holding teams to under 30 points per game in the first half. In the second half, it's a little over 40. That's a big difference. If we could get that into the mid-30s we'd be in business."

Maybe good teams from major conferences attract talented players that also happen to be tall? Maybe height is simply a confounding factor and opponent's talent is the driver of VCU's struggles? The correlation between effective height in the NCAA and Ken Pomeroy's main measure of team quality is 0.48, so height is probably part of the story for VCU. ↩

VCU: Halfway to Brooklyn

Aaron Williams — Fri, 05 Feb 2016 16:43:26 +0000

VCU outpaced La Salle 88-70 Wednesday night in Philadelphia to win its 12th game in a row. Halfway through A-10 play, the Rams are almost unrecognizable compared to the non-conference schedule and now boast a perfect 9-0 record.

The Explorers beat VCU in the Siegel Center in 2013, lost to the Rams in double-overtime in 2014, and topped the Rams in double-overtime in the Siegel Center last season. Wednesday's game lacked the competitiveness of battles past--VCU's offense dominated.

Melvin Johnson finished with 30 points. At one point he was 8-of-10 from 3-point range before forcing three misses in the second half. He's been simmering all season. Wednesday night was the incendiary performance he needed to elevate his name into the conference player of the year conversation.

La Salle's star scorer was not as successful. Auburn transfer Jordan Price scored 34 points in the Siegel Center last season. He finished with 10 points on 3-of-9 shooting on Wednesday and it took more than 19 minutes for him to score his first points. Korey Billbury and Melvin Johnson defended him relentlessly and the Rams' clearly chose to shut him down and force La Salle's remaining players to make plays. La Salle's unnamed roster did a good job answering the call, but the Explorers just didn't have the firepower to stay competitive.

VCU's winning streak has been powered by point guard JeQuan Lewis. Wednesday, he was limited throughout the game because of fouls. Sophomore point guard Jonathan Williams stepped up. He finished with a career-high 14 points (6-6 FG) and two assists.

The Rams' defense had a mediocre night against La Salle's pedestrian offense, but VCU did a great job turning turnovers into points and attacking the paint. VCU won the turnover battle 17-7, points off of turnovers 29-9, and points in the paint 38-24.

Wednesday night was far from the Rams' toughest challenge of the season, but perfect is perfect. VCU owns the second longest winning streak in the country at 12 games and is a perfect 9-0 in conference play at the halfway mark.

Two Pony Race

The Atlantic 10 is quickly turning into a two team battle between VCU and #23 Dayton. There is a good chance that the conference will be decided when the Rams visit the Flyers for the final game of the season. It will be incredibly difficult to top #23 Dayton in Dayton, Ohio on senior day. Fortunately, VCU has a one-game lead and fewer top-tier games remaining:

Dayton: @URI, @St. Joseph's, vs. SBU, vs. URI, @URI, and vs. VCU.
VCU: vs. GW, vs. URI, vs. Richmond, @GW, and @Dayton.

Every game the Rams win will be crucial to maintaining the #1 seed in Brooklyn and the first conference title for VCU since 2009.

VCU Top 5

VCU was propelled into first place by a dramatic turnaround after a lackluster nonconference schedule. Their success so far has been driven by an unbelievably balanced effort from Melvin Johnson heroics to the occasional Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed offensive burst and Korey Billbury rebound.

The Rams don't have any one player that can do everything, but they have a bunch of players who can do one or two things exceptionally well. Here are five players who have stood out since the Rams kicked it into another gear.

JeQuan Lewis: As Lewis goes, VCU will go. He's been sensational in conference play where he's shooting .549 from 2, .483 from 3, and .909 from the charity stripe. All of this while playing good defense and distributing the ball with ease.

Melvin Johnson: He now has five more career 3-pointers than Troy Daniels. He's the leader and best players on a team that is quickly turning into one of the nation's best.

Doug Brooks: After a break-out performance in the 2015 NCAA Tournament against Ohio State, Brooks struggled mightily in the non-conference schedule. He's clearly the most improved player since the fall. He is stealing the ball at a Briante Weber rate and his 3-point shot is finally starting to fall.

Justin Tillman: He leads the conference in offensive rating, offensive rebounding, turnover rate, and 2-point shooting. He's a jaw-dropping 43-of-54 (.796) from the field in conference play and has scored in double-figures in four straight games.

Mo Alie-Cox: There have been fewer "Mo Says No"s this season, but the non-stat sheet part of Alie-Cox's defense has improved dramatically. His ability to bang with centers down low, recover and seal off driving lanes, and defend the perimeter all while fouling only 2.4 times per 40 minutes in conference play is remarkable. Most teams would give up three guards for a player who can do two of those three things.

Oh, and he can score. Alie-Cox is shooting 35-of-52 (.615) in conference play. More importantly, he's number one in the conference in free throw rate where he has turned into a dependable finisher (28-of-36).

— ∮∮∮ —

There's still a ton of basketball left. VCU started the A-10 7-0 last season before falling to 12-6 and missing out on a Brooklyn bye¹. But perfect is perfect, and the Rams can't have been any better thus far. Hopefully they can keep pace and finish first place in conference play for the first time since Coach Anthony Grant prowled the sidelines.

Much of that collapse happened after the Briante Weber injury. Fortunately, the Rams are incredibly balanced this season and are protected from an injury driven collapse. ↩

JeQuan Lewis: Playing his tempo

Aaron Williams — Wed, 27 Jan 2016 19:34:08 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver

VCU won its 10th straight and moved to 7-0 in the A-10 after topping St. Bonaventure 84-76 in a snowy showdown in the Stuart C. Siegel Center Sunday afternoon. After an up-and-down-and-then-down-some-more start to the season, point guard JeQuan Lewis reeled off another impressive game that makes November and December seem like a different season and Lewis seem like a different player.

On Sunday, they needed him. VCU's high-octane offense sputtered in the first half as fouls and timely SBU plays kept the Rams from ever settling down. Lewis was the difference. He had 16 points by intermission.

In the second half, VCU fell behind by nine points. Lewis turned distributor and immediately found Doug Brooks in the corner for a crucial 3-pointer. The Rams never looked back as they used a 51 point second half to turn that deficit into a double-figure lead. Lewis finished with 26 points, seven assists, zero turnovers, four rebounds, and two steals after playing 39 of 40 minutes. Over the last three games he's averaging 22 PPG, and over the last two games he has 15 assists and one turnover.

Those numbers speak for themselves, but they need to be put into context to fully understand the importance of VCU's starting point guard.

— ∮∮∮ —

On November 22nd, Lewis was benched after tallying three turnovers in nine minutes against Wisconsin in Madison Square Garden. Two weeks later, he turned the ball over 13 times and fouled seven times in 37 combined minutes against Florida State and Georgia Tech.

Talented as Lewis is, he has always been his own biggest critic, and little things were snowballing. This quote from Coach Smart on Around the Horns last season sums it up:

"I think he's made a lot of progress. The hardest thing for him is how hard he is on himself. He's somewhat of a perfectionist. A lot of times when he makes something he perceives to be a mistake, a lot of times he gets in a place where he's very upset about that mistake and not necessarily in a very coachable place.

One week after the baker's dozen of turnovers, VCU fell to 5-5 after losing to Cincinnati, but not before JeQuan Lewis scored six points in the final 45 seconds and something seemed to click. Lewis, and the offense he leads, has been sensational ever since.

	PPG	2PFG	3PFG	FT	RPG	APG	TOPG
First 10 games	9.1	18-43 (.419)	6-18 (.333)	37-45 (.822)	1.2	4.3	3.4
Next 10 games	12.5	34-56 (.607)	11-27 (.407)	24-26 (.923)	2.7	5.6	2.5

During VCU's first ten games, Lewis seemed to be forcing his role as distributor. His intentions were good: get the rock to the big men. But sloppy entry passes were often stolen, which limited the offense to Melvin Johnson doing amazing stuff--and Melvin Johnson did some amazing stuff (!), but a team needs a point guard.

In the postgame presser after the Cincy loss, Coach Wade seemed to know something that in hindsight sounds a little less crazy than it did after three consecutive losses:

"I know what we're doing now is going to work. We've got the right formula now. Now we just need to do it better." Coach Wade

So far, the formula is working. First, the Rams found ways to take pressure off of Lewis. Sometimes Melvin Johnson will take over point guard responsibilities, which makes it tougher to prepare for VCU on each defensive possession and enables Lewis to find catch-and-shoot opportunities. Mo Alie-Cox has also been an effective distributor when he posts up and forces teams to either try to defend him one-on-one or double-team him, which enables him to pass to open shooters.

The Rams have also trotted out some devastating four-guard lineups. Earlier in the year, Coach Wade would only use Jordan Burgess, much like Smart would only use Treveon Graham or Bradford Burgess, as the undersized forward. With Burgess injured, he started experimenting with Brooks and Billbury defending much larger players. Putting four guys on the floor who can beat players off of the dribble and shoot 3-pointers has proven tough to defend.

Finally, VCU has figured how to involve Justin Tillman on offense which means he can now do more than just grab all of the rebounds. He's discovered a knack for lurking along the baseline and catching dump-off passes when Lewis drives the lane. It's resulted in a better shooting percentage for Lewis...and Tillman just never misses. He's shooting 34-of-44 (.773) in conference play including 32 points on 14-of-17 shooting over the last two games and he boasts the second highest offensive rating in all of the A10.

And when all else fails, Lewis's wicked-fast speed has punished defenses. His rebounds are as good as steals because of his ability to run the court and defenders just can't keep Lewis in front of them when he gets low and turns on the after-burners.

I like playing at my tempo, which is fast. JeQuan Lewis

But Lewis's play transcends Xs and Os or statistics. In the battle at Saint Joseph's, he assisted two Mo Alie-Cox buckets, made a layup, hit two free-throws, and grabbed a rebound in the final 1:34 to seal the 13 point comeback and 85-82 victory.

With 1:40 remaining and the game out-of-reach at Richmond on 1/18, Lewis simply took the ball from ShawnDre' Jones at mid-court and manufactured two points. The play helped force overtime.

On Sunday, Lewis found Brooks for that momentum-altering 3-pointer and again forced a turnover during a crucial stretch when his sticky defense drove Jaylen Adams out-of-bounds.

Simply put: During the Wisconsin game, Lewis couldn't even make it on the court. Now, there's no VCU player that has a stronger case for being on the court when VCU needs a timely stop, game-ending free-throws, or a momentum altering score.

Where this leaves VCU

VCU isn't there yet. The Rams' slow start to the season put a serious dent in their non-conference resume and continues to threaten their sixth straight trip to the NCAA Tournament. And while their conference start is perfect, VCU still has to face some of the toughest teams in the A10. In fact, the Rams' conference strength of schedule ranks dead last in the A10. Part of that is because they don't have to play themselves, but the other part is VCU's remaining games: @ Davidson, GW, URI, UR, @ GW, and @ Dayton.

That's tough, but VCU can be a little more confident about those games than in November and December because JeQuan Lewis has found his tempo, and not only is it fast, it's effective.

The golden age of VCU and UR basketball

Aaron Williams — Mon, 18 Jan 2016 13:30:43 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

Any concern that the VCU-Richmond rivalry would lose intensity after the departure of Coach Shaka Smart can be thoroughly dismissed. VCU inched past Richmond 94-89 in overtime in the Robins Center Saturday afternoon in a game full of big-time plays, intensity, and even a dash of controversy.

With 1:40 remaining in regulation, Richmond owned a four-point lead, the basketball, and momentum. It looked like VCU was going to make the seven mile trip across town empty handed--once again. But a series of dramatic and improbable events carried the Rams to their eighth straight victory.

First, JeQuan Lewis simply took the ball from ShawnDre' Jones at mid-court and laid the ball up to cut the deficit to two points. On the next possession, Coach Will Wade stormed several feet into the court and confusion ensued. Richmond had six players on the hardwood, resulting in a Melvin Johnson free-throw to cut the deficit to one point.

After a little back and forth, Melvin Johnson assisted on a Justin Tillman dunk to tie the game with 35 seconds remaining. But Richmond's high-octane offense still had ball. ShawnDre' Jones, who finished with 26 points and six assists, drove to the rim but Mo Alie-Cox picked up his fifth and most important block of the night. Overtime.

VCU lost in overtime in the Robins Center in 2013 and in double-overtime in the Robins Center last season, so when Jones immediately scored in overtime on Saturday the nerves of the collective Black & Gold ached a little harder. But then something uncommon for VCU happened--their free-throw shooting won a game. Richmond went 1-of-5 from the charity stripe while VCU finished a perfect 6-of-6 to take a three point lead.

Richmond had three seconds and a heave to tie it on the final possession, but Justin Tillman playing the role of mad man to the max defended the inbound pass and Mo Alie-Cox intercepted the ball and dunked it as time expired. It was his second game-altering defensive play at the buzzer of the night.

Controversy

From the Siegel Center and Robins Center to the sidelines of the Barclay's Center to the dais at the Annual Coaches Cook-off, Richmond's Coach Mooney and VCU's Coach Smart always had an intense rivalry that boiled over in moments of emotion but would be cordial even seconds later. Early in Saturday's game, Richmond students chanted "Where's Shaka?" By the end of the game, I don't think anyone cared.

Rivalries are strengthened by history. By mutual respect. By personalities. Coach Wade is holding up his end of the bargain.

As if the six players on the court technical wasn't controversial enough¹, Saturday's tension went to 11 when Coach Mooney snubbed Coach Wade during the handshake line. The video is incontrovertible, but Mooney was quick to not make a big deal about it. "I know Will was celebrating the game. I thought he was still celebrating the game, and I went by and just tapped him and said , 'Congratulations'." Snub or inconvenience, these two will prowl the same sideline in about a month, and if we're all lucky again, in Brooklyn.

Creativity

The game was an exemplar of Will Wade's coaching style. VCU's young coach is more willing than his predecessor to totally transform his strategy from night to night and possession to possession. Against Fordham on Wednesday, he slimmed the playbook to four plays from a volume of more than 300. Three things stood out on Saturday.

First, VCU used more 2-3 matchup zone than in any other game this season. The defense wasn't great from either team. VCU was able to get to the rim at will and Richmond's ShawnDre' Jones finished with 26 points, TJ Cline added 22, and Terry Allen scored 18 points. But the Rams' zone was the most resistant defense of the night and VCU held one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country to a 3-of-18 performance from beyond the arc.

Small-ball is central to HAVOC! old and new, but with Jordan Burgess out with a broken finger, the Rams have been forced to play more traditional lineups. Against Richmond, Wade played Korey Billbury and Doug Brooks at the four for extended minutes for the first time all season so the Rams could go small again. This enabled the perimeter trio of Lewis, Johnson, and Billbury to finally play to its potential. The three combined for 66 points, 14 rebounds, eight assists, and six steals. This trio has been reason #1 to be bullish about VCU. Saturday is a promising sign.

Most importantly, VCU used Jonathan Williams and Melvin Johnson as point guards in order to move JeQuan Lewis off of the ball. Lewis thrived. He finished with a career-high 29 points on a mix of dizzying drives and catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. Richmond used length to take away Melvin Johnson's 3-pointers, but he responded with six assists and a knack for making the extra pass.

Coach Wade has shown a willingness to mix things up. At worst, it's interesting. At best, it gives VCU the edge in brutal conference road games with outcomes as unknown as coin flips. The Rams are now in sole possession of first place at 5-0 and return home for the next two games. Pay close attention, because Coach Wade is bound to have a few tricks up his sleeve.

— ∮∮∮ —

The addition of VCU to the Atlantic 10 sparked the golden age of RVA basketball. It was the perfect response to Richmond's trip to the 2011 Sweet Sixteen and VCU's journey to the 2011 Final Four. Saturday was the start of another brilliant chapter. I can't wait to see what twists and turns remain between these two in the 2016 season, and I certainly hope this chapter lasts until Brooklyn.

Coach Mooney took full responsibility after the game, but the refs have some responsibility to count the players before the ball is in play. ↩

What to expect: Not your older sibling’s Spiders vs. Rams

Aaron Williams — Fri, 15 Jan 2016 14:19:40 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

After dismantling Fordham 88-54 Wednesday night in the Siegel Center for its seventh consecutive victory, VCU travels across town to face Richmond Saturday afternoon in Part One of its biggest rivalry of the season. Ram fans tuning in on TV or visiting the ol' Robins Center will recognize the jerseys and players, but could be shocked by Coach Mooney's most unique team to date.

Richmond's defense is noticeably worse than in previous seasons, they compensate for it with an unfamiliar high-octane offense, and they play at a faster tempo than in any of Coach Mooney's 11 seasons in RVA.

Defense

Despite loads of potential, Richmond is off to a pedestrian start, with a loss to JMU and an 0-2 start in the A10 that they've turned into a 2-2 record. The problem: they can't defend anyone.

Richmond's tricky 2-3 matchup zone has traditionally frustrated opponents from 3-point range while using a center like Alonzo Nelson-Ododa to turn the area around the rim into a no-fly zone. This season, the Spiders are allowing opponents to shoot a jaw-dropping 38.2% from beyond the arc and teams are amassing frequent flyer miles attacking the paint now that Nelson-Ododa, who finished second on Richmond's all-time block list in only three seasons (!), is a reserve for 14-1 Pittsburgh.

The departure of the streaky and enigmatic Nelson-Ododa forced undersized junior forward Marshall Wood and undersized senior forward Terry Allen into some unfavorable match-ups on defense. VCU's Justin Tillman could be a handful coming off of a career-high 27 points and his fourth career double-double, and Mo Alie-Cox has been out-muscling opponents and playing at an all-conference level.

Richmond's undersized front-court has been making up for it's defense on the other end by punishing teams with impossible offensive match-ups and impeccable spacing.

Offense

Richmond boasts the 19th most efficient offense in the country, fueled by the 8th best shooting in the nation. 5-foot-11 ShawnDre' Jones is doing his best Kendall Anthony impersonation--he's lightning quick, has a killer jump-shot, and scored 35 points against Fordham on January 10th. He's 42-of-91 (.462) from 3-point range this season.

His speed is complemented by a suite of long wing/forwards who can hit shots from the perimeter. 6-foot-9 TJ Cline, 6-foot-8 Marshall Wood, and 6-foot-7 Deion Taylor¹ are a combined 62-of-154 (.403) from 3-point range. The challenges of defending them will undoubtedly be tougher for VCU with Jordan Burgess sitting out with a broken finger.

Richmond's greatest asset is 6-foot-8, 240 pound Terry Allen. The potential conference player of the year can use his muscle and length to play over and through players and he has the guard skills to face up and score in a variety of ways. He's scored in double-figures in every game going back to February 14th, 2015 and is 99-of-175 (.566) from 2-point range, 14-of-37 (.378) from 3-point range, and 82-of-107 (.766) from the free-throw line.

Tempo

2015-16 has been the second worst statistical defense in Coach Mooney's eleven seasons at Richmond. But the Spiders are making up for their soft defense with the best offense at Richmond this century. And they are playing quicker than ever before.

The fastest tempo his teams at Richmond have ever played is 65 posessions per game which ranked 238th in 2009. This season, the Spiders are churning out 70.4 possessions per game. It's weird to say, but buckle-up, Saturday's game in the Robins Center could be a barn-burner.

Why It Matters

Richmond swept VCU last regular season for the first time since 2001. The Rams got the last say in a 70-67 victory in the A-10 Tournament, but it's just no fun ceding bragging rights to a cross-town rival--even if it's just for a few weeks. More importantly, last season's losses gave 12-6 Richmond a 4-seed and a bye while 12-6 VCU was given a five-seed and was forced to play on Wednesday of the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

The conference battle is equally tense this season. VCU and St. Bonaventure are tied at 4-0 with three teams tied at 3-1 knocking on the door. So far, the Rams have played one of the easiest schedules in the conference. Saturday could be the difference between winning the league and finishing second or getting a bye and being forced to play on Wednesday.

Either way, it promises to be a bitter battle between the slightly new-look Rams and the nearly unrecognizable Spiders.

Taylor is out indefinitely with a back injury. He's missed two games this season. ↩

Five stats from VCU’s dismantling of Fordham

Aaron Williams — Thu, 14 Jan 2016 18:12:06 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver

VCU dominated Fordham 88-54 on both ends of the court Wednesday night in the Stuart C. Siegel Center. Here are five shocking stats:

VCU scored 20 points in the final 5:51 of the first half including an 18-2 run. Fordham scored 19 points in the entire first half. In fact, it took Fordham 37:31 and VCU's walk-ons to match VCU's 47 first half points.
VCU assisted on 23 of 33 field goals in the game including 14 assists on 18 buckets in the first half. JeQuan Lewis tallied 7 dimes and reserve point guard Jonathan Williams added 5.
Michael Gilmore, Korey Billbury, Ahmed Hamdy Mohamed, and Gerron Scissum all dunked, but it was Justin Tillman's four dunks that punished the Siegel Center's rims the most. He finished with a career-high 27 points and his fourth double-double after picking up his tenth rebound late in the game.
11 of VCU's we dressed players scored. Walk-on Torey Burston finished with 3 points, and freshman Gerron Scissum slammed a powerful jam. Freshman walk-on Jordan Riullano didn't score, but he did get an assist.
VCU's four forwards combined for 47 points, 19 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, 4 blocks, and 3 steals. They went 17-of-23 from two and 2-of-3 from three which amounts to a .769 effective field goal percentage.

Here are three shocking .gifs:

Justin Tillman, man of the hour

Hamdy Mohamed!

Scissum!

— ∮∮∮ —

The Rams travel across town to visit rival Richmond Saturday afternoon at 2:00 PM.

Threat Level HAVOC!: The conference play ahead of us

Aaron Williams — Fri, 08 Jan 2016 15:27:15 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

Despite giving Saint Joseph's a 9-0 run to start the first half and an 11-0 run to start the second half, despite 31 points (7-8 2PFG, 4-6 3PFG) and 9 rebounds from the supremely improved St. Joe's senior big man Isaiah Miles, and despite a 13-point deficit in the second half, VCU topped the Hawks 85-82 Tuesday night in Philadelphia to move to 2-0 in conference play.

The short version: VCU stole this game and I still haven't figured out how they did it.

The Rams couldn't get things done on the defensive end and they fell in love with the 3-point shot attempt despite mediocre success from beyond the arc. But between the 13:08 mark and the 5:14 mark in the second half, Melvin Johnson scored 17 points. Then Doug Brooks scored 5 points in 41 seconds. Mo Alie-Cox followed that up with a dominant 10 straight points.

The Rams scored 33 points in the final 10 minutes, and I guarantee a non-insignificant number of people who turned the game off in frustration couldn't believe reading the result in Good Morning, RVA Wednesday morning.

I honestly don't want to dwell on Tuesday for too long. It was agonizing for all but eight minutes. And while it went down on paper as a W, a process-based evaluation won't be as favorable to the Rams as the scoreboard. But that's conference play, and that's what it takes to be successful sometimes. A win against the Hawks in Philadelphia is no easy feat, so to put it in perspective, here is every A-10 team ranked on how much of a threat they are to HAVOC!

— ∮∮∮ —

#13 La Salle (4-8, 0-2)

The fightin' Jordan Prices (22.8 PPG) haven't beat a D-I team since November 23rd. The defense just isn't there.

#12 GMU (6-9, 0-2)

The Rams already dismantled the Patriots 71-47. Dave Paulsen's ceiling appears to be way higher than his predecessor, but George Mason just can't score this season. They'll break 50 when the Rams visit Fairfax, but VCU should get another season sweep.

#11 UMass (8-6, 1-1)

The Minutemen have impressive victories over Clemson and Harvard but have fallen off the train since starting 4-0. On Tuesday they were clobbered by Dayton. The Minutemen's dreams of Chaz Williams are HAVOC!'s nightmares, but he's long gone and what's left just isn't enough.

#10 SLU (6-8, 1-1)

The Billikens were bad last year, and it still took Jordan Burgess heroics to squeak out a 63-61 victory in St. Louis. SLU has won just two of their last 10 games. The Rams return to the Mississippi on Sunday, and something tells me it will be closer than it should be.

#9 Duquesne (10-5, 0-2)

The Dukes are a middle-of-the-pack team at best, but they'll be the most annoying team in the A-10 because of their 3-point shooting. Expect them to beat someone unexpected. Derrick Colter is putting together a solid season after beating cancer, and Micah Mason is 41-of-96 (.427) from 3-point range.

#8 Fordham (10-3, 1-1)

These Rams are unexpectedly 10-3 in coach Jeff Neubauer's first year. His 2014 team at Eastern Kentucky took VCU to overtime in the Siegel Center, using an aggressive 2-3 zone and a high-octane backcourt. This season, his team ranks 4th nationally in defensive turnover percentage and 3rd in defensive steal percentage. VCU ranks 5th and 2nd respectively. Fordham is still a work in progress, but this could turn into high-pressure, high-turnover rivalry moving forward.

#7 St. Bonaventure (10-3, 0-2)

The Bonnies are actually pretty good this season. They've won seven of their last eight, Marcus Posley (who hit the game-winner against VCU last season) and Dion Wright are quality seniors, and they may even get a bye in the A-10 tourney. But VCU doesn't have to visit Olean this season, and that in and of itself is a victory.

#6 George Washington (12-3, 1-1)

The Colonials added Wake Forest transfer Tyler Cavanaugh to an already stacked front court featuring Patricio Garino, Yuta Watanabe, and Kevin Larsen, and until Monday they'd been the only team to beat UVA. But VCU is 4-1 against GW in the A-10 with an average margin of victory of more than 20 points per game, and the Colonials dropped a game to SLU on Wednesday. Until GW proves me wrong (likely), call me a skeptic.

#5 Davidson (9-4, 1-1)

The Wildcats started the conference slate 5-4 last season before winning nine straight and topping the conference. Never bet against Coach Bob McKillop, especially when he has guards like Jack Gibbs, Jordan Barham (ankle injury), and Brian Sullivan (concussion). The Wildcats rank second nationally in offensive turnover percentage, and they shoot the ball well, too. If they get healthy and their defense shows up, they could beat VCU...or anyone for that matter.

#4 Rhode Island (10-5, 2-0)

This was supposed to be Rhode Island's dominant season, but E.C. Matthews, favorite for Conference Player of the Year and potential first round draft pick, tore his ACL in the first half of the first game of the season. Towson transfer Four McGlynn is the 3-point shooter the Rams have always needed and Hassan Martin is one of the best defensive players in the conference, but it's tough to not wonder what might have been. URI has never beaten VCU, despite the loss of Matthews, URI boasts tons of talent and will push VCU to the brink.

#3 Saint Joseph's (11-3, 1-1)

The Hawks have a strong history against the Rams. Furthermore, they entered Tuesday 11-2 with losses to Florida and Villanova. Saint Joseph's has obliterated expectations this season, and if they rematch the Rams in Brooklyn, the outcome is as good as a coin flip.

#2 Richmond (8-6, 0-2)

The Spiders could have no talent and still steal a win over the Rams because rivalry. But Richmond does have talent. Terry Allen (19.9 PPG, 8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2 SPG) is an early favorite for conference player of the year, TJ Cline is a 3-point shooting match-up nightmare, and ShawnDre' Jones is basically Kendall Anthony in training. The Spiders stumbled to start A-10 play, but it will be a miracle if VCU sweeps the city this season.

#1 Dayton (12-2, 2-0)

The Flyers are in the Top 25 and still aren't near their ceiling. JMU transfer Charles Cooke has been sensational (15.2 PPG & 6.8 RPG), and senior Dyshawn Pierre should be a big boost as he gets comfortable playing after missing the first eleven games of the season. VCU ends the conference-slate at Dayton on March 5th. Basketball will win if the Flyers and Rams are tied for first in the A-10 entering that game.

— ∮∮∮ —

Dayton is far and away the favorite to win the conference at this point. Richmond, Saint Joseph's Rhode Island, Davidson, Saint Bonaventure, and VCU are all going to scrap it out in the second tier, and Tuesday's Hawks-Rams battle was just the beginning. Someone's going home unhappy. Someone's going to start strong and then tank. Someone's going to struggle and then take over. The next two months are primed to be a roller-coaster for VCU fans and fans of Atlantic 10 basketball. Buckle up and enjoy.

VCU: Highlights and resolutions

Aaron Williams — Tue, 29 Dec 2015 20:20:29 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver

Highlights

The Rams started the calendar year in the midst of a 12-game winning streak as they sprinted out to a 17-3 start and a #14 ranking. In the second week of the year, Treveon Graham hurt his ankle but still powered his way to 26 points and 8 rebounds in a 65-60 win at Rhode Island that should simply be remembered as "The Treveon Graham Game".

The Rams also topped newcomer, and soon-to-be A10 champs, Davidson 71-65 and rocked the perpetually up-and-coming George Washington Colonials 72-48 at the Siegel Center. On January 31st, Briante Weber tallied 11 points, three rebounds, one assist, and six steals in 26 minutes before tearing his ACL, MCL, and meniscus in a loss to Richmond. He finished his career with a jaw-dropping 374 steals --just 12 short of the NCAA record. Ken Pomeroy did a better job than anyone else of putting Weber's dominance in perspective by looking at the numbers. We tried to capture the Man of Steal's aura here with a listicle and photoshop.

Without their starting point guard and one-man defensive wrecking crew, the Rams went from 7-0 in conference play to 12-6 --and it was brutal. St. Bonaventure hit a game-winner in Olean. La Salle won in double-overtime in the Siegel Center. Richmond won in double-overtime at the Robins Center, Dayton snuck-by 59-55 and Davidson rocked the Rams 82-55--all in the same eight days. VCU dropped three of the last four games of the regular season to fall to fifth in the Atlantic 10 heading to Brooklyn.

Forced to play on Thursday while the top four teams rested, VCU sneaked by Fordham 63-57. On Friday, they beat Richmond, who had just completed their first regular season-sweep of VCU since 2001, 70-67. On Saturday, they refaced Davidson, who nine days earlier had beaten them by 27 points. Davidson jumped out to a 16-4 lead and all seemed lost. As it is wont to do for VCU, the switch flipped and the Rams responded with a 40-12/15-0 run. The Rams won the game 93-73 completing a 47-point swing in nine days.

On Saturday, the Rams held a lead against Dayton, but Coach Archie Miller executed a near-perfect comeback strategy. With one minute remaining, Doug Brooks entered the game with zero points, three turnovers, and four fouls. On the next play, VCU showed meaningful 2-3 zone for the first time since the run to the 2011 Final Four, and Doug Brooks stole the ball and found JeQuan Lewis to give VCU a four-point lead and, ultimately, a 71-65 victory.

The Rams won four games in four days to capture the 2015 Atlantic 10 Tournament. Treveon Graham was named the most outstanding player of the tournament, and Mo Alie-Cox was named first team all-tournament.

VCU punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament for a Virginia-record fifth consecutive year and travelled to Portland as a #7 seed to face #10 Ohio State--an underperforming, veteran team, with a monster back-court. The teams battled, often using five guard lineups, and eventually sent the game to overtime. But 28 points from first team All-American and current LA Laker D'Angelo Russell were simply too much to overcome and the Buckeyes won 75-72. For the second year in a row, the Rams were upset in overtime in the first game of the NCAA Tournament.

Days later, Coach Smart announced he was leaving for University of Texas. Athletic Director Ed McLaughlin wasted little time and hired Coach Will Wade. I think Coach Smart summed it up better than anyone else:

"There's that saying, 'Don't work harder, work smarter.' Well, Will works harder and smarter. He struck me as the hardest working guy I knew. His attention to detail is second to none, and he's really good at developing relationships. I knew that Will was someone we had to have on staff here." Shaka Smart

Briante Weber and Treveon Graham both graduated and found spots on NBA D-League teams¹. Their much-needed replacements decided to look for opportunities elsewhere. All three members of VCU's star-studded recruiting class abandoned ship, and Terry Larrier transferred to UConn. But Wade cobbled together a savvy recruiting class, and the Rams entered the 2016 with the talent to make some noise.

This season hasn't been perfect. The Rams started 5-5, but their losses were to Duke, Wisconsin, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Cincinnati. Their chances for an at-large bid are threatened, but they seem to be righting the ship before conference play, which starts January 2nd against George Mason. 2016 may not be as consequential as 2015, but it guarantees to be just as entertaining. Here's how the Rams can take it to the next level.

Resolutions

The Atlantic 10 boasts six teams ranked between 42 and 68, according to KenPom.com. The league has a lot of talent, but no favorite. Dayton is 9-2 but recently lost to Chattanooga (Will Wade's former employer) at home. George Washington was off to an impressive start, but lost to DePaul 82-61 right before Christmas. Despite a rocky start, the VCU Rams are still contenders. But what would a New Year's piece be without resolutions?

Guards, guards, guards

JeQuan Lewis, Melvin Johnson, and Korey Billbury are turning into a formidable backcourt. Lewis is doing a much better job protecting the ball, Billbury's outside shot is complementing his toughness under the basket, and Melvin Johnson is simply on fire. Since going 0-of-11 against Cincinnati, he has 37 points (3-3 2PFG, 9-14 3PFG, 4-4 FT) in 41 minutes of action. He and Billbury are 59-of-132 (.447) from 3-point range. The synergy between the three is cause for hope after a 5-5 start--but they need to find consistency.

Feed the BIG dog

Mo Alie-Cox is playing well, but he's still far from his ceiling.² He finished with 18 points and eight rebounds against Davidson in the A10 Tournament before scoring 13 points on 6-of-6 shooting in the finals against Dayton. He's fallen short of that output this season.

The good news is, there's reason to think great things are about to happen. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Cincinnati have some of the biggest and longest front courts in the country. In the two games since VCU's three-game skid, Alie-Cox has 16 points on 8-of-9 shooting in 38 minutes of action. The Rams need to get him more looks--because they regularly result in easy buckets when opponents single-team him and catch-and-shoot opportunities for teammates when opponents double-team him.

3D Doug

Doug Brooks hit four straight 3-pointers and put together a strong half of defense against Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell in the 2015 NCAA Tournament. Dougie "Buckets" looked primed to be VCU's 3&D star off of the bench during the 2016 season--but his shots just haven't started falling. Last season he went 31-of-76 (.408) from 3-point range. This season he's 12-of-46 (.261). Brooks turns the ball over less on offense and steals the ball more on defense than any other Ram, if his shots start falling it could elevate VCU's second unit and the entire team.

Free-throws

Fans love to complain about VCU's free-throw shooting, but the Rams actually shoot slightly above-average from the charity stripe. Their biggest problem is getting to the line and keeping opponents off of the line.

VCU ranks 252nd in free-throws attempted per field goal attempt on offense. They rank 266th in the same stat on defense. Opponents are taking 9.3 more free-throws per 100 field goal attempts than VCU--and that's not a winning formula for a grueling conference schedule that will boast many, many one possession games. Guards other than JeQuan Lewis need to draw more fouls, something they have not done well since the graduation of Treveon Graham, and the Rams need to limit shooting fouls. If they do that, it could make the entire difference in three or four conference games.

Both could have earned more money playing international basketball, but have chosen to follow in the steps of Troy Daniels. Daniels worked tirelessly in the NBA D-League in 2014 before getting called up and hitting a game-winning 3-pointer in game 3 of the play-offs for the Houston Rockets. This season, his minutes have been limited but he's shooting .529 from 3-point range. ↩
Some may be concerned about Mo Alie-Cox's rebounding, but I think that's more of a story about the team than VCU's center. Korey Billbury is an absolute menace on the defensive glass and Justin Tillman has the potential to be one of VCU's best rebounders ever. There simply aren't enough missed shots for Alie-Cox to pad his numbers and Billbury has the added advantage of pushing the ball on the break. Overall, this is one of VCU's best rebounding teams in a long, long time. ↩

VCU: A case for optimism

Aaron Williams — Tue, 22 Dec 2015 17:33:12 +0000

Photo by blmoregon.

23 Cincinnati topped VCU 69-63 in the Stuart C. Siegel Saturday. It was the Rams' third consecutive loss and they are now 5-5 for the first time in a decade. It may feel like the sky is falling on Broad Street, but here's a case for optimism.

Micro-Optimism

For starters, VCU went blow-for-blow with a top-25 team and was in it 'til the final minute, despite Jordan Burgess being sidelined with a concussion and the lack of a back-up point guard.

At times this season, the Rams have looked like they should be more aptly called the Fightin' Melvin Johnsons. Despite plenty of talent, they've played one-dimensionally, desperately needing some support around its leading scorer. Cincinnati entered Saturday with a defensive strategy called "Loading the Box on Melvin" which amounted to "Don't Let Melvin Shoot." The Bearcats limited him to just 2 points on 0-of-11 shooting. But other Rams stepped up.

Korey Billbury finished with 22 points (3-7 2PFG, 4-8 3PFG), 9 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Michael Gilmore added 9 points including two smooth 3-pointers. Cincy's two centers and a power forward combined for 14 fouls mostly because they couldn't handle the physical presence of Mo Alie-Cox who finished with 10 points and 5 rebounds.

Finally, JeQuan Lewis, who turned the ball over 13 times in 42 minutes against Florida St. and Georgia Tech, finished with 13 points, 4 assists, and just one turnover. VCU trailed by 10 points with under four minutes remaining but Lewis scored six points in 45 seconds to spark a near comeback. All game, he showed a level of poise not seen by him since last season's run in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

Most teams lack the individual perimeter defenders and mobile big men to effectively run that defensive game plan against Melvin Johnson--he'll be back to his scoring ways starting Tuesday against Buffalo in the Siegel Center. If Billbury and Lewis can use Saturday as a springboard for future success, then VCU will improve. The Lewis-Johnson-Billbury triple-threat has been reason #1 to be bullish on VCU, it may be a little late to arrive, but its potential is not lost.

Macro-Optimism

He's done a tremendous job. I know you say, "Hold on, look, they're five and five," but I told him he better get control of the schedule. Scheduling and recruiting are one and one in this business, and they obviously scheduled extremely tough. He's gonna be coaching for a long time. His guys play hard for him. It's tough when you lose [Treveon Graham] and [Briante Weber] and then come in in your first year and play against that type of schedule. Cincinnati Coach Mick Cronin

VCU is no stranger to tough schedules, but this season is different. Usually the Rams stumble during an impossible November before recovering against much easier opponents in December. Only this season, the opponents didn't get easier as Christmas approached. At MTSU, vs. FSU, at Georgia Tech, and vs. #23 Cincinnati is simply a level of schedule not imaginable even five years ago at VCU.

Team	Record	Ken Pom Rank	Top 100 Games	Top 50 Games
Dayton	8–2	35	7	3
GW	10–1	40	4	2
URI	7–4	54	4	3
VCU	5–5	58	6	4
UR	7–3	65	5	2
Davidson	7–2	75	2	2
SJU	8–2	78	3	2
SBU	7–2	100	1	1
Fordham	9–1	109	1	1
UMass	6–4	121	3	0
Duquesne	10–2	135	1	1
GMU	5–7	189	4	1
SLU	5–5	208	2	2
La Salle	4–4	241	1	1

There are lots of different ways to be 5-5 and lots of ways to be 10-2. I don't think any fan of VCU basketball would trade VCU's season so far for Duquesne. This is why former coach Shaka Smart constantly advocated for process-based evaluation over outcome-based evaluation. VCU will improve and their opponents will get a little easier, which is why I'm still buying VCU to finish well above .500.

This isn't to sugarcoat reality. VCU has inconsistent point guard play, they foul way too much, they don't take enough free throws, and they hit too few free-throws when they get to the line. But to pretend that any of Smart's teams didn't have glaring weaknesses is to look at the past with rose-colored glasses. As Coach Wade put it on Saturday, "Even with Burgess, we've got warts."

But the typically candid coach is still bullish on VCU. "I know what we're doing now is going to work. We've got the right formula now," says Wade. "Now we just need to do it better."

When a team returns a coach and lots of players, it's tough to see paths for dramatic improvement after about ten games spent holding the roster constant. Usually, there just isn't a enough low-hanging fruit. But VCU is working on replacing Treveon Graham, Briante Weber, and Terry Larrier while adjusting to a system that is more different than Smart's version of HAVOC! than anyone could have anticipated. For example, VCU played half-court defense for the first 36 minutes on Saturday. That at least leaves more chances than in years past for mid-season improvement.

At the very least, Wade was on to something when he said, "Moving forward, there's no one else we'll play that has the type of length that those guys have." This will make the biggest difference for Mo Alie-Cox whose emergence last season fueled VCU's improvement after losing Briante Weber. Like a home-run hitter removing the doughnut before stepping to the plate, Mo Alie-Cox is about to return to a world where players simply lack the physical tools to deal with his imposing size. This will force teams into the unenviable problem of letting him score one-on-one or double-teaming and letting him pass the ball to shooters waiting at the 3-point line.

A moment of pessimism

VCU swung and missed on its non-conference schedule, which could threaten its attempt at a state-record sixth-consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. Unless the Rams absolutely clean up the conference schedule to the tune of 15+ wins, their only ticket to the Big Dance will be repeating as A10 Tournament Champions--a steep challenge considering the conference's depth this season.

Your final words of reality

Teams are always better than they seem after losses and worse than they seem after victories. For a program not accustomed to losing, it's easy to let pessimism snowball during an agonizing three-game losing streak. VCU won't run every team out of the gym this season and they'll certainly still take a few blows, but there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. At the very least, fans have twelve more opportunities to visit the Stu and hear the Peppas play "Africa"--and that is more than can be said for most basketball programs in the entire nation.

HAVOC! doesn’t live in Austin…or anywhere else?

Aaron Williams — Wed, 16 Dec 2015 16:55:48 +0000

VCU dropped a tough road game 77-64 to Georgia Tech Tuesday night in Atlanta. Just a few days ago, Shaka Smart scored his first marquee victory at Texas with a win over #3 North Carolina. The games had dramatically different outcomes, but even below the surface they highlight the differences between Smart's current and former employers.

The differences started earlier this summer, just a few months after Will Wade announced "HAVOC! still lives here" at his (re)introduction in the Siegel Center. On May 4th, Texas withdrew its application to register "HORNS HAVOC" and "HOUSE OF HAVOC" with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. The frenetic style Smart brought to VCU would remain--at least in name--at VCU.

But playing styles themselves can't be protected by law, and many expected Smart to utilize Texas's skilled and speedy back-court to build a running and gunning machine much like the teams that took him to five straight NCAA Tournaments at VCU. On Saturday, Texas barely pressed against North Carolina. The Longhorns stole the ball just three times--something that has happened just once in the last two and a half seasons at VCU.

Meanwhile, stealing the basketball remains an obsession in Richmond. After finishing first in steal percentage in 2012, first in 2013, first in 2014, and third in 2015, the Rams rank second nationally in steal percentage this season--a remarkable feat without the Sultan of Steal, Briante Weber. And while what Coach Wade is doing isn't the same as HAVOC! past, it's pretty dang close.

Tale of two horns

Texas ranks 268th in the nation with a steal percentage of 7.2%. Briante Weber posted higher steal percentages as an individual in 2013 (7.6%) and 2015 (8.9%).
This season, VCU is averaging 11.2 steals per game while Texas is averaging just 5.2.
The Longhorns rank 307th in the nation in adjusted tempo and play at an anemic 67.3 possessions per game. VCU ranks 59th with 72.8 possessions per game.

The differences don't stop at defense. Texas's patient offense carried a pedestrian defense against UNC, contrasting with VCU's offensive struggles against its most recent ACC foe. Justin Tillman finished with a career-high 18 points and Melvin Johnson finished with 17 points, but Doug Brooks finished 2-of-15, JeQuan Lewis added zero points and six turnovers, and everyone not named Tillman/Johnson finished 11-of-44 (.250) from the field. Like seasons past, the Rams looked lost in the half court.

In the first half, their defensive identity kept the game competitive. The Rams alternated between a full-court press and a flustering 2-3 matchup zone and entered the locker room tied at 27. After the break, things fell apart as Georgia Tech scored 50 points in the second half and cruised to a double-digit victory.

The loss leaves VCU at a pedestrian 5-4 with no marquee victories and a non-conference resume that reeks of NIT--much like Texas a week ago. Saturday, the Rams host #23 Cincinatti in the Stuart C. Siegel Center where VCU is 4-1 against ranked opponents. It is the most important non-conference game VCU has played since topping Wichita State in the 2011 Bracketbusters game.

VCU still has the stylistic makings of HAVOC!, but there's way more to the philosophy than full-court pressure or a high-octane offense--and Will Wade's team is falling short. The Rams have lacked these three things that cut deeper than X's & O's:

Always hit the floor first
Poise is the yin to the yang of HAVOC!
It's not just about the steals, it's about attacking the opponents psyche and plan of attack.

As VCU proved in 2011, it's never too late to capture these three elements of the game. Texas proved it on Saturday when they turned a middling 5-3 start to the season into a court storming. Texas doesn't play HAVOC!, but they embodied it with that victory. HAVOC! isn't in Richmond right now, but the Rams better bring it back if they hope to upset a ranked team this week and put their season back on track.

VCU: The pivot from giant killer to business as usual

Aaron Williams — Wed, 09 Dec 2015 16:38:45 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

The story of VCU may best be told through its dramatic battles against teams from "power conferences." Coach Capel was one shot away from topping the Wake Forest Chris Pauls in 2004. Eric Maynor hit "the dagger" against Duke in 2007. Coach Smart and HAVOC! trounced five power conference teams in nineteen days to head to the 2011 Final Four.

VCU basketball was designed as a Giant Killer. It's aggressive pressing defense frustrates most guards while turning games into battles of will instead of raw talent. Their streaky but explosive 3-point shooting can fill it up while turning games into "who has the hot-hand" instead of "who has the higher average." And their capable but experienced roster of four-year players is often the difference against one-and-done stars making a pit stop in college en route to the NBA.

But one-off victories and March Madness sprints have proven easier than sustained success--and in many ways that's the next step for the Rams. As VCU's opportunities multiply, how will the Rams pivot from upsetting the big boys to just business-as-usual against the big boys?

It's been a work in progress this season. VCU is 5-0 against teams outside of power conferences and 0-3 against teams from the ACC and Big Ten. In fact, the Rams have lost four straight going back to the 2015 NCAA Tournament and are 3-6 over the last two seasons.

Date	Opponent	Outcome
11/14/2014	Tennessee	W, 85-69
11/24/2014	#12 Villanova	L, 77-53
11/25/2014	Oregon	W, 77-63
12/6/2014	#7 Virginia	L, 74-57
12/20/2014	Cincinnati	W 68-47
3/19/2015	Ohio State	L 75-72 OT
11/20/2015	#5 Duke	L, 79-71
11/22/2015	Wisconsin	L, 74-73
12/6/2015	FSU	L, 76-71

Most recently, the Rams played Florida State in Atlanta--and it didn't start well...at all. VCU turned the ball over 16 times in the first half and trailed by as many as 13 points. While they contained freshmen phenoms Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon, 7-foot-3 Boris Bojanovsky is probably still haunting the dreams of VCU's offense, and sophomore Xavier Rathan-Mayes finished with 23 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals.

But just when it seemed like all hope was lost, VCU did VCU things. Korey Billbury scored nine points early in the second half and over one stretch Melvin Johnson scored fifteen straight points for the Rams. VCU even took a 60-59 lead. If only basketball games were 35 minutes long. Ultimately, Melvin Johnson's career-high 36 points would not be enough as VCU's offense sputtered and the Seminoles triumphed 76-71.

The prolific afternoon inspires confidence in Melvin Johnson, but it raises concerns about VCU's supporting cast and the Rams' ability to pile up quality non-conference wins against top conference teams. The bench scored just four points. Doug Brooks has just one point in the last two games and Justin Tillman was limited to two minutes of action. JeQuan Lewis tallied seven turnovers--although most were with the good intention of getting the ball to the hot-handed Mo Alie-Cox.

It's safe to say most of the Rams' roster will have no shortage of motivation while they take the week off for exams and preparation. The Rams will have no shortage of opportunities to redeem themselves next week as they travel to the ACC's Georgia Tech on December 15th at 9:00 PM and hosts the AAC's #23 Cincinnati at 4:00 PM on December 19th.

Georgia Tech (6-2) isn't an ACC powerhouse, but make no mistake about it, they're good. The Yellowjackets start four seniors and a junior. Forward Charles Mitchell may be the best rebounder in the country; he ranks 16th in offensive rebounding percentage and 3rd in defensive rebounding percentage while tallying 13 boards per game. Perennial transferrer Adam Smith (UNCW -> Virginia Tech -> Georgia Tech)¹ is a wealth of 3-point shooting. GT lost to ETSU at home[^lettersjoke], but sometimes embarrassing home losses make it tougher for future teams to sneak up and steal a W.

#23 Cincinnati (8-1) is playing some of the best basketball in the country. Their defense is stultifying as usual, .and their offense is uncharacteristically efficient this season behind dominant offensive rebounding and improved 3-point shooting. The Bearcats are one Roosevelt Jones game-winner for Butler² away from being undefeated and are certainly deserving of a ranking higher than #23. The Rams embarrassed Cincy last season 68-47, although the Bearcats' head coach suffered an unruptured brain aneurism the morning of the bout. Fortunately he's healthy and coaching, and fortunately the rematch is in the Siegel Center where VCU is 4-1 against ranked opponents with wins over #17 Oklahoma, #20 Butler, #10 Saint Louis, and #23 Northern Iowa.

Even if the Rams go 0-3 over this big-time stretch, the more important change is the increased opportunity to not only face elite teams, but to face them on campuses instead of neutral courts. From 1974-2009, VCU played 71 games against teams from the top conferences. Since Smart took over a little more than six seasons ago, VCU has played 32 games against the top conferences with two more on the books for this season.

VCU has done an incredible job not only killing giants but building a program and sustaining success. As long as the Rams continue recruiting quality four-year players and getting opportunities to face the nation's best, they will be a threat to beat almost any team in the country regardless of conference affiliation, but now they want to be the favorite. As Duke's Mike Krzyzewski said after the Rams' competitive loss to the Blue Devils a few weeks ago, "They have a program at VCU, and that's tougher than a team."

Interestingly, VCU will have faced Adam Smith at all three of his schools after this game. ↩
1. Yes, Roosevelt Jones, the player Briante Weber did this to is still in college.
2. Butler is a role-model for making the pivot from giant killer to giant.
3. And geez, talk about a team that has been favored by the basketball gods.
↩

40 Minutes of Will Wade Basketball

Aaron Williams — Mon, 30 Nov 2015 19:17:14 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver

Old Dominion entered Saturday's game shooting .296 from 3-point range, but that didn't stop the Monarchs from starting 4-of-4 from range en route to a 16-8 lead. Seniors Aaron Bacote and Trey Freeman made work of VCU's man-to-man defense and the Rams ruined opportunities with inopportune turnovers.

But VCU switched to a 2-3 match-up zone that had a few members of the media so confused they thought it was a 1-3-1¹. For reference, the Rams played one meaningful possession of 2-3 zone all of last season. It was an early reminder that while this rivalry is 91 games old, Saturday was Coach Wade's sixth game as head coach, and this team is evolving.

While the zone stopped ODU's regal blitz, VCU demonstrated its offensive depth and balance that failed to make a showing in Manhattan. Seven players finished the game with seven-plus points. Doug Brooks was the first to strike, hitting three quick 3-pointers on three attempts igniting both the Rams' offense and the crowd at the Stu in true Dougie Buckets style

In seasons past, Brooks's explosion might have been all for naught, but the Rams showcased Wade's emphasis on drawing fouls and making free-throws--a focus he used to win 18 games with a Chattanooga team he admitted "just wasn't very talented."

VCU went 13-of-22 (.591) last season in a 73-67 loss to ODU. Saturday, they finished the first half 9-of-10. More importantly, they hit the front end of all of their one-and-ones while ODU missed all three². That's a six-point swing on six possessions that enabled the Rams to enter the locker room tied at 35 despite the early deficit.

The second half was a case study in the Will Wade offense. On the first possession, the Rams fed the ball to Mo Alie-Cox. The Monarchs, who lacked a defender capable of defending him one-on-one were too slow to double-team, and Alie-Cox emphatically dunked the ball. It was the first of five straight points from VCU's starting center.

Under Wade's offense, the Rams have broadened their offensive toolbox beyond an over-reliance on the perimeter-oriented ball-screen offense of Coach Smart. Once ODU started throwing effective double-teams on Alie-Cox, he started passing to open 3-point shooters on the perimeter. The ball movement was precise and effective, creating opportunities that JeQuan Lewis compared to shoot around-- you know, when no one is playing defense. VCU finished the game an impressive 10-of-23 (.435) from 3-point range.

On defense, VCU's guards still struggled to keep ODU in front of them, but Mo Alie-Cox started "showing" on ball screens instead of sitting back. The change was what Coach Jeff Jones pointed to as the difference in the second half. In fact, the final 20 minutes showcased the unique combination of earth-shattering size and nimble feet that makes Mo Alie-Cox both a crucial cog for VCU and an NFL tight end prospect.

JeQuan Lewis, who was benched just two games ago, showed poise down the stretch, scoring eight of his 16 points in the final 4:04. He also finished with two rebounds, three assists, and three steals. Melvin Johnson added 13 points, Jordan Burgess finished with 12 points, and Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed finished with eight smooth points and a blocked 3-pointer.

The VCU-ODU rivalry has diminished because of conference realignment, but maybe its demise was exaggerated because ODU simply wasn't very good before last season. Either way, Saturday was a sign of style to come, while at the same time providing one heckuva basketball experience.

VCU playing zone and pounding the ball inside, and Old Dominion playing man-to-man and relying on guards must have been a dizzying sight for fans used to Blaine Taylor's bruising 2-3 zone and Smart's guard-oriented full-court free-for-all. ↩
When a team fouls more than six times in a half, the fouled team gets to shoot free-throws whether it was a shooting foul or not. On fouls seven, eight, and nine, the team gets to attempt one free-throw. If they hit that free-throw, they get to attempt a second, so lots of emphasis is put on hitting "the front end of one-and-ones." ↩

November: An annual tradition for VCU

Aaron Williams — Tue, 24 Nov 2015 18:33:51 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

VCU lost a tough 79-71 battle to #5 Duke on Friday night and an even closer 74-73 heartbreaker to Wisconsin Sunday afternoon in the 2K Classic in New York City. The losses both raise concerns and foster hope, all while being reminiscent of years past.

Duke

Will Wade and Co. started the game with a dangerous combination of energy and poise en route to a 22-15 lead. It was vintage HAVOC! and the Rams looked like a top-25 team. Melvin Johnson started 4-of-4 from 3-point range and Mo Alie-Cox (15 points) was a physical presence on offense. But 27 VCU fouls and 30 points from Duke sophomore Grayson Allen were too much to overcome after 40 minutes of basketball against one of the country's best.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin carved up VCU's defense like a Thanksgiving turkey to start Sunday's game. JeQuan Lewis struggled to slow down Bronson Koenig and turned the ball over three times before getting benched; all while the Badgers attacked the paint at will. Trailing 22-11, Doug Brooks's intensity took hold and VCU ended the half on a 32-15 run.

After the break, VCU's intensity wavered and Wisconsin caught up one point at a time. With seven seconds remaining, Koenig hit a lay-up to give Wisconsin a 74-73 lead. Despite having one timeout remaining¹, VCU immediately inbounded the ball and Melvin Johnson attempted a contested 3-pointer from NBA range. The Rams lost by one point which is all the more heartbreaking since they went 17-of-29 (.586) from the free-throw line.

The Bad

VCU returns from Madison Square Garden with more questions than answers. First and foremost, Lewis struggled, but his benching was bigger than a few turnovers or defensive mistakes. Will his role be altered moving forward or will the adversity be a springboard for success?

#VCU coach sat starting PG JeQuan Lewis in 2nd half: "(Lewis) needs to do things our way. If you don't want to do them our way, we'll sit— Tim Pearrell (@timpearrelltd) November 23, 2015

Coach Smart made a living forcing other teams to change personnel and alter strategy. Sunday in particular, it felt like the Rams were responding to their opponents' demands instead of dictating terms. VCU spent plenty of time with Jordan Burgess at the "4" spot, but the four guard offense and pressure defense didn't dictate style with the same authority as the days of Briante Weber and Treveon Graham.

There were plenty of reasons to think VCU would use more match-up zone defense and bigger lineups including Justin Tillman at the power forward position. On Friday, Tillman grabbed 8 rebounds in 16 minutes but was inexplicably limited in a game where VCU struggled to end good defensive possessions with rebounds.

On Sunday Justin Tillman, Michael Gilmore, and Jonathan Williams tallied just 19 minutes as Wade leaned heavily on his older guards. The Rams did force the historically sure-handed Badgers into 17 turnovers, but failed to capitalize outside of a strong end to the first half. Despite the perimeter focus, VCU hit just eight 3-pointers all weekend with six coming from Melvin Johnson. Will Wade usually enters games with a preplanned substitution pattern, how flexible will that plan be moving forward and how will VCU's style change from game to game?

The Good

Losing two games in three days to drop to .500 isn't fun regardless of the quality of the competition, but the Rams did go toe-to-toe with the defending NCAA champions and defending NCAA runner-ups. Those teams return little of what took them deep last March², but Duke is going to win a heap of games and Bo Ryan has a knack for outpacing perennially increasing expectations.

It's better to lose with clearly fixable mistakes than to lose playing flawlessly. Despite many of the Rams' shortcomings, Will Wade and company found ways to stay competitive--and they'll find ways to improve those shortcomings too. The competitiveness all started with Melvin Johnson. The Bronx-native senior is averaging 19.5 PPG and 2 SPG this season while shooting 15-of-28 (.536) from 3-point range. He currently ranks 7th all-time at VCU and needs an achievable 81 3-pointers to tie B.A. Walker's record. To put that in perspective, Johnson hit 86 3-pointers last season.

Senior Korey Billbury, junior Mo Alie-Cox, and junior Jordan Burgess have established themselves as tough upperclassmen worthy of HAVOC! and deserving of praise. BULLbury is a tough-as-nails scorer who is settling down in the Rams' offense, Mo Alie-Cox has developed a knack for rolling off of screens and delivering dominant dunks, and Jordan Burgess is finding a million ways to contribute despite struggling from 3-point range.

Most surprisingly, junior college transfer Ahmad Hamdy-Mohamed has been a huge offensive contributor. Coming to VCU he seemed like a Toby Veal (74 points in one season) or a David Hinton (47 points in 4 seasons). Both made timely plays that unilaterally changed the outcome of important games, but Hamdy-Mohamed already has 27 points in three games including 10 points against Duke and 13 points against Wisconsin. That's an unexpected early season contribution worthy of praise.

November struggles

November struggles are nothing new to VCU. Since the Final Four, VCU is 4-9 at "multi-team exempt events"³ with wins over Western Kentucky, Memphis, LBSU, and Oregon. Despite the November struggles, the Rams have done an amazing job dominating December, improving throughout the season, and going deep in the CAA/A10 tournament. This annual arc has led VCU to five consecutive NCAA Tournaments.

But schedule strength this season could present new challenges. In December, the Rams play Florida State, Georgia Tech, and #24 Cincinnati in a 13 day span. If they stumble, it may be tougher to right the ship and sprint into conference play.

This weekend was a bummer, but it's still no cause for panic. Despite the blemishes, VCU showed flashes of brilliance and the Rams return to RVA with reels of film and lots of low-hanging improvements within the grasp of Coach Wade and his staff. Nothing balms the burn of a loss like victory. Fortunately, the Rams have an opportunity to top American on Wednesday and head into Thanksgiving with a W for which to be thankful.

Per off-season rule changes, coaches can no longer live-ball timeouts. Instead players have to signal to the referees. Did the change affect VCU's strategy, because seven seconds was more than enough time for VCU to end up with a shot much better than the intercontinental prayer they ended up attempting. ↩
They return three of the ten starters and the top five players, Frank Kaminsky, Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Sam Dekker, are now all in the National Basketball Association. Wisconsin returned just two total players from the national championship game! ↩
Exempt-events are the fancy name for the tournaments VCU plays in every November where fans have actually heard of the Rams' opponents. They are now all the rage after the NCAA changed the rules in 2006. ↩

Hope for the unexpected when VCU faces Duke

Aaron Williams — Fri, 20 Nov 2015 14:23:53 +0000

Photo by Will Weaver

Original -- November 19, 2015

VCU travels to Madison Square Garden as part of the 2K Classic, a four team tournament benefitting Wounded Warrior Project, to face #5 Duke Friday night at 7:00 PM. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

On Sunday afternoon, VCU will play Wisconsin or Georgetown at 1:00 PM or 3:30 PM.

In 2011, Shaka Smart and the VCU Rams unexpectedly stormed through March and took the college basketball world by storm en route to the Final Four. Since then, the Rams' style has been a national brand, and VCU hasn't had the opportunity to sneak up on opponents like during their "giant-killer" days of old.

But last April, Shaka Smart moved to Austin. And while "HAVOC! still lives here," things are a little different under Coach Will Wade. How different? We still don't know! Wade has been keeping his cards close to his chest.

Friday

"Part of Friday was me. I ran one play the whole second half. I was trying to conserve some stuff. I didn't press." Coach Wade

There's been plenty of talk of change in Richmond, but the simple truth is VCU has spent most of its first two games playing what I'd call a more "boring" brand of basketball in hopes of catching Duke's young but talented roster off-guard with some unexpected plays.

Don't let Duke's 74-63 loss to #2 Kentucky on Tuesday deceive, VCU is going to need every advantage it can seize. The Blue Devils are coming off of a dominant national championship and boast arguably the greatest coach of all time--Mike Krzyzewski.

Duke lost three players to the NBA lottery but has reloaded with small forward Brandon Ingram, who 247 Composite ranks 2nd, 3rd-ranked point guard Derryck Thornton, 4th-ranked power forward Chase Jeter, and 5th-ranked shooting guard Luke Kennard.

They also return with shooting guard Grayson Allen (20 PPG), who dropped 16 points in 21 minutes in the national championship game but is still figuring out his role as a go-to scorer, and rebounding-machine Amile Jefferson (15.3 PPG/12.7 RPG).

In order to top #5 Duke's talent, the Rams are going to need to do more than surprise the Blue Devils with a few surprise offensive sets and a change in defense. They are going to need one or two unexpected exceptional individual performances.

"A lot of our guys are unknowns...What better way to break out on a national scale than on national TV against Duke?" Coach Wade

Melvin Johnson, who is coming off of 24 points and 4 steals against Radford, will need to be great during his return to his home town. JeQuan Lewis is quickly turning into a complete player, and Doug Brooks, Michael Gilmore, Justin Tillman, and Korey Billbury are all guys who could step up on offense and be difference-makers.

The groundwork for a win exists, but VCU will need to excel in a few areas.

VCU is creating great looks beyond the arc. Nearly 11% of all FGA have been left corner threes where the Rams are shooting a remarkable 64.3%— Jeff Horne (@jeffreyphorne) November 17, 2015

The Rams will need to continue finding open shooters in the corners for three-pointers. Fortunately, teams are shooting 44.2% from three-point range against Duke.

Offensive rebounding, turnovers, and fouls are recent focuses of Coach Wade. The Rams are +11 on the offensive glass and +13 on forcing turnovers, but have struggled to limit fouls where they are just -1. Some of that is the result of using more man-to-man defense in the first two games than they'll use the rest of the season, but "the legendary Duke Deference" from referees, could add to the struggle. VCU likely won't win if they can't turn the charity stripe into an advantage.

VCU lost to Duke 67-58 during the 2012-13 season. In that game, 6-foot-10 forward Mason Plumlee spent of lot of time bringing the ball up the court. The unexpected tactic was surprisingly effective and Duke only turned the ball over 8 times. More importantly, the Blue Devils kept their composure and stayed true to their brand of basketball. As with most VCU upsets, the Rams' pressure defense will not only need to force turnovers, but frustrate the opponent's psyche and force them to play outside their typical style.

— ∮∮∮ —

Sunday

On Sunday, VCU will face either Wisconsin or Georgetown.

Wisconsin Outlook

Wisconsin spoiled Kentucky's 38-0 start last April before losing to Duke in the National Championship game. The Badgers lost first-round picks Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker to the NBA, but return talented forward Nigel Hayes who has an endearing obsession with stenographers, guard Bronson Koenig, and coach Bo Ryan who has never finished lower than fourth place in fifteen seasons in the Big Ten.

Georgetown Outlook

If VCU plays Georgetown, it could cause flashbacks to when the Rams and the Hoyas combined for 61 fouls in Puerto Rico in 2013. That season, the NCAA committed to calling more fouls to promote "freedom of movement". The NCAA recently doubled-down on similar rules this season. The man to watch is senior guard D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera who finished with 26 points including 5-of-6 3-point shooting against VCU in 2013. He doesn't have as much help this season, but he'll be tough to stop, especially with less contact allowed on defense under the new rules.

Before last weekend, both opponents looked a little more menacing and a little more opportune than now. On Friday, Wisconsin lost to Western Illinois and on Saturday, Radford topped Georgetown in double overtime. Still, both opponents would give VCU its second of five opportunities to beat "Power Five" schools while building an NCAA Tournament resume.

— ∮∮∮ —

Photo by Will Weaver

The 2K Class presents a perfect combination of the opportunities VCU never had before the Final Four and the chance to sneak up and force some unexpected results that they've lacked since. VCU will travel to the highest profile arena in the nation--Madison Square Garden--to play the reigning national champions. Some say college basketball isn't exciting outside of March, but that's going to be a tough case to make on Friday night.

"If you're not excited to play in these games, go play intramurals over at Cary Street Gym...That's why I came back to VCU. You want to play in these sorts of games, you want to be in these sorts of environments, and test yourself against the best." ~Coach Wade

Coaching trees, redshirts, ineligibility, and an addiction to basketball

Aaron Williams — Mon, 16 Nov 2015 13:06:04 +0000

Photo by: Sky Noir

VCU opened the season with a 75-50 win over Prairie View A&M Friday night in the Stuart C. Siegel Center. The Rams dominated the first half 46-22, but a sloppy second half left Coach Will Wade flustered.

Sophomore Justin Tillman finished with a gaudy 10 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2 steals in his first career double-double. Melvin Johnson and Doug Brooks each added 13 points. Junior Mo Alie-Cox finished with an under-the-radar 8 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 2 steals.

The Rams' new offense has been a focus this offseason, but their defense was the difference as the Panthers only scored 0.69 points per possession. VCU used a bevy of different zone and man defenses expanding upon HAVOC! of years past, but the results were the same and PVAMU turned the ball over 22 times on 17 VCU steals.

Samir Doughty and the redshirts

On Friday, the NCAA announced that freshman shooting guard Samir Doughty has been deemed a partial qualifier and will redshirt during the 2015-16 season. He inexplicably sat out last weekend's exhibition game. Doughty will still receive financial aid and he will be able to practice with the team starting in the second semester.

We received a late notice from the NCAA Eligibility Center regarding a change to Samir's initial eligibility last week," VCU Head Men's Basketball Coach Will Wade said. "This change involved circumstances outside of Samir's control. We worked closely with the NCAA and we are thrilled that Samir will remain with our men's basketball program. He has excelled so far academically at VCU and he will continue to represent our program well in the classroom.

Freshman forward Jonathan Nwankwo is also redshirting for developmental reasons, but don't let that worry you. If you'll remember, Jordan Burgess and Mo Alie-Cox were both deemed partial qualifiers during their freshmen seasons in 2012-13. Burgess was able to practice with the team, but Alie-Cox was not and used the time to make dramatic gains in conditioning. Both have since turned into invaluable parts of the whole, while also excelling academically at VCU.

When branches cross

Shaka Smart had an accomplished six years in Richmond, but one area that is sometimes overlooked when we remember the glowing parts of his career is his coaching tree. Will Wade isn't the only one of his former assistant coaches to have a head coaching position-four of the seven former assistants now rule a school.

Coach	Time at VCU	School	Record
Will Wade	2009-2013	Chattanooga	40-25 (27-7)
Mike Rhoades	2009-2014	Rice	12-20 (8-10)
Mike Jones	2009-2011	Radford	63-70 (31-38)
Jamion Christian	2011-2012	Mount St. Mary's	49-46 (31-21)
Jeremy Ballard	2012-2015	Illinois State (Ast.)	N/A
Mike Morrell	2013-2015	Texas (Ast.)	N/A
David Cason	2014-2015	Texas (Ast.)	N/A

Tonight, we'll see a rematch between VCU's Wade and Radford's Mike Jones.

The only matchup between branches of the Shaka Smart coaching tree came in November of 2013 when Will Wade and Chattanooga visited Mike Jones and Radford. Radford triumphed 89-78 in the clash between former colleagues. But that was Wade's second game as a head coach and the "Mocs" were on their way to an abysmal 4-8 start (2-8 against D1).

Jones will bring Radford to VCU at 7:00 PM on Monday, November 16th. This time, Wade has a little more experience, a little more talent, and a lot more expectations. Adding to the interest, Radford topped Georgetown in double-overtime on Saturday night behind 28 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists by senior Rashun Davis. Tonight could end up being more of a test than anticipated.

Addendum: I can't get enough basketball

If you find yourself unable to satisfy your basketball desires with VCU alone, Rice and Mount St. Mary's would be good additions to your viewing repertoire.

Rhoades inherited a 7-23 team and struggled to a 12-20 record last season. But the team made progress including winning two double-overtime games in three days against strong teams toward the end of last season. This season, he adds a talented group of guards that will take their freshmen lumps but could push the team above .500.

While tougher to catch on TV, Mount St. Mary's "Mayhem" may be "HAVOC! Lite" but worth a watch. In his second season, Jamion Christian's squad caught fire in March and plowed through the NEC conference tournament to become the first Smart assistant to lead a team to the NCAA Tournament.

I'd also recommend keeping an eye on these former VCU players:

Teddy Okereafor is entering a promising senior season at Rider. He's been a huge driver in their resurgence and they could sneak into the NCAA Tournament out of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

After sitting out last year at Robert Morris, Jairus Lyles will join UMBC in January. He played one season with VCU but struggled to find a role in the Rams' crowded back-court. Center Antravious Simmons, one of the most popular teammates in recent VCU memory, will join Florida Gulf Coast University in January.

— ∮∮∮ —

College basketball season is just beginning, and that means months of opportunities to watch current Rams, former Rams, future Rams, imaginary Rams...all the Rams! You can catch the current Rams as they take on Radford tonight, at 7:00 PM, on CSN. Follow @rvaramnews for live updates.

5 answers to questions you never asked about VCU basketball

Aaron Williams — Wed, 04 Nov 2015 16:27:19 +0000

With data stretching back to 1974, we can answer all sorts of VCU basketball questions. Let's dig in!

— ∮∮∮ —

VCU performance seems flat on Sundays. Why are some days of the week better than others?

VCU has won a ton of games pretty much always, so while the Rams have historically been worse on Sundays, 39-29 (.574) is still impressive.

What about during Coach Smart's tenure?

OK, turns out there is some real weight to this one. Some of this is probably explained by exempt tournaments and conference tournaments having tough games on Sundays, but if you're buying tickets to see VCU, you're better off going on Fridays.

— ∮∮∮ —

VCU beat Northern Iowa in 2OT, lost in 2OT to La Salle, lost in 2OT to Richmond, and lost in OT to Ohio State last season. How often do the Rams play in overtime and is it usually that heart-breaking?

VCU has played 1280 games since the start of the 1974 season. I have box scores for 1240. Since then, the Rams have played 55 games that have gone beyond regulation. That averages out to one overtime game every 23.3 games and one overtime period every 19.1 games. So yeah, four overtime games and seven overtime periods in one season means fans got a ton of free basketball in 2015. Unfortunately, the latter three included a rare home loss to a not-so-great team, a loss to arch-rival Richmond, and an early exit from the NCAA Tournament. So no, it's usually not that heart-breaking.

— ∮∮∮ —

I only watch VCU basketball in March. What I am missing out on?

March is the greatest sports month of the year, but if winning is your thing, then you might want to check out December and January. Under Smart, the Rams followed a predictable pattern of stumbling early before dominating in December and January in the first act, tripping in February to end the second act, and then doing something dramatic in March. Only watching March is like skipping Star Wars IV I and V II and then watching VI III¹. It's enjoyable, but you have no idea who Obi Wan Kenobi is and you think Ewoks are integral to the Star Wars universe.

— ∮∮∮ —

Did VCU basketball exist before March of 2011? Were the Rams any good?

Every coach in VCU history has finished with a winning record. In 45 seasons, the Rams have finished below .500 just seven times. (Fordham boasts eight consecutive losing seasons!). VCU was adrift in the mid-1990s, but overall the program has maintained a unbelievably consistent high level of success. Fortunately, the Rams are now on television more than ever which means people who didn't watch VCU before the Rams trounced Georgetown in the 2011 NCAA Tournament can now share in the magic of HAVOC!.

Years	Coach	Record
2016-	Will Wade	0-0 (.000)
2010-2015	Shaka Smart	163-56 (.744)
2006-2009	Anthony Grant	76-25 (.752)
2002-2006	Jeff Capel	79-41 (.658)
1998-2002	Mack McCarthy	66-55 (.545)
1989-1998	Sonny Smith	136-127 (.517)
1985-1989	Mike Pollio	65-57 (.533)
1979-1985	J.D. Barnett	132-48 (.733)
1976-1979	Dana Kirk	57-23 (.712)
1970-1976	Chuck Noe	95-42 (.693)
1968-1970	Benny Dees	25-21 (.543)

— ∮∮∮ —

So VCU just wins all the time? Is that what you're saying? Where is their room for improvement?

All they do is win, win, win no matter what, what...except for on the road and against the big conferences (consistently). The Siegel Center boasts the 13th highest winning percentage in the country, but the Rams have struggled comparatively on the road.

The Rams have also tallied some impressive wins over big name schools in the past few years, but still have a ways to go before "giant-killer" becomes a full-time job instead of a weekend hobby. This season they'll get opportunities to improve this record in games against Duke, Wisconsin or Georgetown, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Cincinnati.

— ∮∮∮ —

We're putting more emphasis on data and graphics this season. If you have any data sets you'd like to see or any questions you'd like answered, leave a comment, tweet at @RVARamNews, or just holler it loudly! Maybe we'll hear you.

This goes out to all the Star Wars fans who believe there is only one trilogy. ↩

The 2015 Rams: What they’ve lost, what they’ve gained, what we learned last weekend

Aaron Williams — Wed, 28 Oct 2015 16:35:17 +0000

Photos by Will Weaver

"We have a lot to work on, but a lot to work with." Shaka Smart

It seems wrong to start the Will Wade era with a Shaka Smart quote, but I'm not sure those words have ever been any truer than now.

For years, it looked like Smart's Rams would stock up on recruits until they could just talent their way to a conference title, but the ceiling this season will have more to do with how those pieces fit together than the specific talents of any one player. At Saturday's Black & Gold Game--the annual scrimmage--the Rams showed the ability to put it together two or three men at a time, but the five man effort that will win games is still a work in progress.

Not since the Final Four has VCU had a backcourt as offensively skilled as the three-headed monster that is junior JeQuan Lewis, senior Melvin Johnson, and senior transfer Korey Billbury. It's still unclear if they have a player who can create opportunities in the half-court like Treveon Graham once did, but the Rams boast a few symbiotic relationships that clearly exceed the sum of their parts. What those three may lack in individual, night-in-and-night-out bucket gettin', they more than make up for with balance and complementary skills.

Johnson is a proven shooter who can score in bunches but his 1,000 point career is peppered with single-digit performances. There are a lot of ways to average double figure scoring. His senior campaign will have a lot more W's if he can be counted on for 14 points every night instead of 24 every other night.

Billbury is a physical graduate transfer who scored more than 1,000 points during his time on the court at Oral Roberts. He can catch and shoot, but his bread and butter is driving and drawing fouls. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds he's tough to defend and averaged 7.4 rebounds per game last season. He joins Jordan Burgess as the only other Ram who could fight a grizzly bear and win.

Lewis should be able to avoid the forced drives of his sophomore campaign that too often resulted in turnovers and contested shots in favor of focusing on distributing the ball and catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. After Briante Weber's career ending injury, Lewis led the conference in steal percentage and scored 11.9 points per game. Together those three should be able to work the ball around the perimeter, slash their way to 400 free-throws over the course of the season, and force teams into some unenviable two-on-ones.

"Justin Tillman dunks everything and I love that." Will Wade

Sophomore Justin Tillman and junior Mo Alie-Cox will likely round out the starting five. Tillman, who entertained leaving the team after the departure of Smart was clearly Saturday's best player. He finished with 20 points on 9-of-11 shooting, 10 rebounds, and so many dunks that the Siegel staff went on Amazon and ordered a few more rims for the season during halftime.

It was never clear how power forwards like Tillman and sophomore Michael Gilmore would have fit into Coach Smart's "small ball" philosophy. Under Wade, there is no doubt how they will fit in. Both will be relied upon to shoot, set screens, pass, and attack the offensive glass for 50 combined minutes per game.

Alie-Cox needs no introduction. The "Mo Says No!" chants that echo through the Siegel Center will be golden details in the stories parents tell their children one day. He's coming off of a memorable Atlantic 10 Tournament with 18 & 8 against top-seeded Davidson and perfect 6-of-6 shooting in the championship against Dayton. Like Tim Duncan discovering he has arms, Alie-Cox discovered that he is 6-foot-7, 250 pounds and never looked back.

But as good as Tillman and Alie-Cox looked individually, Saturday showcased unexpected chemistry. Alie-Cox finished with four assists including a few beautiful passes to Tillman. Their two man game on offense showed flashes of something never before seen in the Siegel Center. And with Alie-Cox holding down the paint on defense, Tillman will have opportunities to sneak up and block shots that he lacked as an undersized center last season.

But maybe VCU's greatest assets are the guys that start the game riding the pine. Jordan Burgess, Doug Brooks, Michael Gilmore, and Jonathan Williams could all carve out starting roles around the conference, but will spend most of their season as the second and third ranks in a ceaseless attack meant to wear down opponents. After "Dougie Bucket's" 14-point game against Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament, that should be a scary prospect.

— ∮∮∮ —

The number of points per 100 possessions score by and against VCU after adjusting for the quality of the opponent. A higher value for offense is better and a lower value for defense is better. Source: KenPom.com

— ∮∮∮ —

Percentile ranking for VCU's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. The Rams boasted the sixth best defense in the country in 2014 but struggled to put together a great offense and defense in the same season. Source: KenPom.com

— ∮∮∮ —

Wade has no illusions. Huddled up in the frigid media room after the scrimmage, he thought the team was half a step slow on defense and the ball was stuck on offense. And remember, teams play themselves in scrimmages so every great play exposed a VCU weakness. The Black Squad's 14 offensive rebounds on 23 missed shots was the result of some poor boxing-out by the Gold Squad. And the Gold Squad's 14 steals were cued by mistakes from the Black Squad.

VCU's defense has the potential to be more consistent than the past four years, but probably won't have the same ceiling as when Briante Weber was single-handidly doing what maybe no one in the history of college basketball has ever done.¹ Fewer steals are bad, but fewer fouls and fewer allowed layups could make up the difference.

The 2015-16 Rams look poised to put together the most efficient offense in Richmond since Will Wade was an assistant coach at VCU in 2012-13. Saturday showed flashes of half-court offense not seen since Joey Rodriguez was passing to Rozzell, Burgess, and Skeen which means VCU will be less reliant on the feast-and-famine transition points that make for highlight reels but not conference titles.

Maybe the most promising aspects of Saturday's scrimmage were the things unseen. Rule changes this offseason similar to the first half of the 2013-14 season meant to limit hand-checks and promote "freedom of movement" promise whistles a-plenty. HAVOC! struggled that season² especially in a 25 foul loss to FSU and and a 29 foul loss to Georgetown. Saturday, Wade's carefully calculated defenses limited the Rams to 23 fouls--combined. The new 30 second shot-clock wasn't even noticeable due to the Rams' blistering pace, but it should be a weapon on defense when the Rams turn it to 11 and opponents sense the sand falling through the even smaller hourglass.

In order to succeed this season, VCU needs to focus on turning the two and three man songs into a five man symphony. Saturday showed that they have plenty to work on before taking the court against Prairie View A&M on November 13th, but no shortage of talent to work with.

Treveon Graham was one of the best to ever wear the Black & Gold, but his skills and production can be replaced by committee. Weber on the other hand is the most unique player to ever play in Richmond. His loss will be felt, but the Rams won four games in four days in Brooklyn without him in their March run through the Atlantic 10 Tournament. ↩
Well, at least the half of the season the rules were enforced. It will be interesting to see if the refs and NCAA officials can tolerate ugly basketball and complaining fans long enough to establish their credibility and permanently change the game. Last time was not a success. ↩

One coach’s departure is another’s opportunity

Aaron Williams — Tue, 20 Oct 2015 15:51:19 +0000

Photo by: Will Weaver

On April 2nd, Richmond's most iconic resident donned an orange polo, threw up a "hook'em horns" sign, and took a one way flight to Austin. Coach Shaka Smart leaves behind a program on the rise, a fanbase full of nervous anticipation, and an opportunity--an opportunity for someone with equal potential and charisma to capture the hearts of minds of Richmond. Meet Will Wade.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/IVNrlpaMBGs

Replacing Richmond's First Family

VCU has been here before --a lot. The modern era of Ram basketball began the afternoon of March 18th, 2004 when 13th-seeded VCU came within one shot of beating Chris Paul and 4th-seeded Wake Forest in the NCAA Tournament. The team was led by 29-year-old head coach Jeff Capel, who two years later would move to Oklahoma University where he'd partner up with a young forward named Blake Griffin¹.

Enter unproven assistant coach Anthony Grant. Three CAA titles, two conference tournament championships, and two NCAA Tournaments later, Grant moved to Tuscaloosa to coach at University of Alabama. How can a fanbase top Eric Maynor's game-winner over Duke in 2007 and Larry Sanders's 18 point, 20 rebound, 7 block domination of George Mason in 2009?

Shaka Smart's success needs no context. It needs no explanation. His persona is so far-reaching, that even after the experience of losing Capel and Grant, the departure of Smart feels unprecedented and overwhelming.

Anything can happen in college basketball, but there is a high probability that Ram fans will be able to find solace in Will Wade. He has just enough in common with Smart to soothe any unease and add continuity, but just enough uniqueness to be his own coach and own personality.

Wade was Smart's first hire when the latter joined VCU in 2009. Both met at Clemson in the mid-2000's where their coaching skills brewed under pressing-guru Oliver Purnell. Smart became an assistant at Florida while Wade moved on to Harvard.

Wade spent two seasons in Cambridge as an assistant coach and director of recruiting under Tommy Amaker. The two arrived at a program that had never won the Ivy League and hadn't been to the Big Dance since 1946. Wade landed a top-25 class-- unthinkable at Harvard--and helped lay the foundation for a team that has won five straight Ivy Leagues and gone to four straight NCAA Tournaments. But Wade didn't wait long enough to see the success play out before joining Smart in Richmond.

During his four seasons in Richmond, Wade had the dizzying task of tracking VCU's steals in different pressing defenses during games. He also played an important role in recruiting many of VCU's household names--a recurring theme in his young career.² VCU was 111-37 (.750) with three trips to the NCAA Tournament and a Final Four with Wade on the bench before he returned home to Tennessee to rebuild Chattanooga.

The Mocs started off 4-8 (with three wins against non-DI schools) before Wade went to the drawing board around Christmas to revamp his own brand of HAVOC!, "Chaos." Despite a lack of talent, the team reeled off ten straight wins, finished 18-15, and Will Wade was named the 2014 Southern Conference Coach of the Year.

Last season, Wade added former VCU big man Justin Tuoyo and several other athletic recruits and ran out to an impressive 22-9 start but fell short in a disappointing loss to Furman in the Southern Conference Tournament. Less than a month later he was (re)introduced in the Siegel Center.

Will Wade Wants to Talk About Basketball

Not many people can arouse cheers from a crowd by talking about 2-2-1 zones and 2-3 matchup zones like Will Wade did during his opening presser at VCU. Wade's eagerness to talk basketball is infectious. Trained as a high school history teacher and the son of a high school principal, he's a teacher's teacher of the game. Earlier this month he invited members of the media up to his office so he could circle us up around his white board and talk X's and O's - it felt like he was just doing it for fun.

I think this is where the differences start. Coach Smart was a transformational leader who could have coached any sport. His skills would have lent themselves to just about anything including government or private industry.

Under Smart, VCU thrived with an unwavering commitment to the dogma of HAVOC! This meant playing one speed and embracing aggressive, confident, loose (ACL) basketball. When a team believes that much in themselves, each other, and their style, why would they ever bother playing any other way? His players would have run through walls for him. It was transcendent. It was electrifying. Sometimes it meant beating Kansas in the Elite 8 and sometimes it meant losing by 25 points to Michigan.

Not for better and not for worse, Coach Wade is going to be more flexible and methodical. If the press isn't working then he'll try something else. He's already mentioned using zone defense 30% of the time, something Smart used only as a victory cigar after Briante Weber came to town, and adding more big men to complement Mo Alie-Cox.

The offense is going to be more sophisticated. Instead of revolving around tweeners like Treveon Graham and Bradford Burgess who were too quick for forwards and too strong for guards, the offense will rely on more traditional forwards like Michael Gilmore and Justin Tillman. Both sophomores are primed to make big leaps and they will be involved in almost every play whether they're setting ball screens, scoring in the post, or passing out to 3-point shooters Melvin Johnson and Doug Brooks.

It also means VCU could be more consistent in the 18-game slugfest that is conference play, because while Smart is the greatest to ever coach in Richmond, he also never won a conference title.

This isn't to say Coach Wade can't be found expounding Stanford psychologist Carol Dweck's "growth mindset" or reciting acronyms that include words like "appreciation" and "togetherness," but the tactics of basketball will be emphasized more than psychology.

HAVOC! Still Lives Here

...but it will be a little different. VCU won the trademark in 2012 and stalled Texas's attempts to take the brand along with Coach Smart. This will be awkward when Smart brings Texas to Broad Street in 2017 or 2018, but after time the brand could begin to represent the program instead of a style of play. And there is plenty outside of the coach's offices that changed VCWho to VCU: overachieving players, unmatched pep bands, unrelenting fans--and now a $25 million practice facility.

The history of VCU is more Game of Thrones than True Detective. It's more the same story told from multiple perspectives than individual chapters that stand alone. Capel laid the foundation. Grant won with Capel's players. Smart won with Grant's players. Each took stylistic cues from their predecessors.

Will Wade knows the stories of his predecessors well enough to grasp the plots and themes, but he also has the perspective to create something Capel, Grant, and Smart could have never imagined. And this could be the greatest gift of all: a revolving door instead of a career coach. For fans of basketball, leadership, and/or all things VCU, this transition will be interesting and entertaining at worst.

Just like Capel and Grant before him, Coach Shaka Smart will never be replaced, but his success can be a foundation for VCU's many coaches to come. Will Wade has always had the potential and charisma to thrive as a coach and an ambassador for VCU and the city of Richmond. Now he has the opportunity. Welcome (back) to RVA.

If you don't know him from basketball, you know him from KIA commercials. ↩
Days after Smart's defection, Tevin Mack (#58 in the 24/7 Sports Composite), Kenny Williams III (#97), and Jordan Murphy (#166) all de-committed from VCU. Will Wade wasted no time soothing the recruiting naysayers by signing De'Riante Jenkins (#52). ↩

Why more paving will never create enough parking in the Fan

Aaron Williams — Tue, 14 Jul 2015 04:45:21 +0000

Photo by: World Bank Photo Collection

Economics is the study of scarcity

In Richmond, a failed understanding of the scarcity of parking has the potential to derail the GRTC Pulse while sending $24.9 million back to the federal government and undermining the progress of RVA. There are several ways to deal with the presence of scarcity in our lives.

In normal markets, like beer or food, prices are the mechanism that match finite supply with consumers. As prices go up, quantity demanded decreases and quantity supplied increases. As prices go down, quantity demanded increases and quantity supplied decreases. Basically, if an individual is buying goods, they'll buy more when prices are lower. If an individual is selling goods, they'll sell more when prices are higher. Prices pull these competing forces into equilibrium where supply equals demand. This model isn't perfect because of time inconsistencies and differences in information, but it's pretty dang close for most products.

Why parking is different

This model fits parking, but it requires one more level of sophistication. There are two types of costs: fixed costs and marginal costs. Fixed costs are how much an individual pays regardless of how many goods he or she consumes. Marginal costs are how much an individual pays for each additional good he or she consumes.

On-street parking is financed entirely through fixed costs in the form of taxes. The out-of-pocket marginal cost is nothing more than an occasional parking ticket or a woefully underpriced, optional parking pass¹. So an individual who stores a car on Floyd Avenue year-round is paying the same amount for parking as the woman in the nursing home on Allen who doesn't own a car and the Millennial in Oregon Hill who prefers a fixed-gear bike. When the fixed cost is exponentially greater than the marginal cost, the market falls apart--welcome to East Berlin circa 1980.

Induced Demand

So what is the mechanism that brings the Fan's parking into equilibrium? Time and inconvenience. There's more to cost than cash. We mock central planning because East Berliners had to wait all day for a loaf of bread and ten years for a new car, but it's an apt metaphor for the way we've designed our parking system.

So why not just add more parking until this time cost disappears? Adding more spots would lower the time inconvenience in the short term (like a week or a month), but people adapt, demand responds to the lower prices, and more people decide to park on streets in the city. This is called "induced demand" and it is well documented in the study "An Analysis of the Relationship Between Highway Expansion and Congestion in Metropolitan Areas". In a cost-free environment, inconvenience won't decrease, but more cars will be able to park. So why is this bad? Because this isn't a cost-free solution.

More parking has one benefit: more parking. Meanwhile, an 8.5-foot by 18-foot on-street parking spot has at least a $4,000 construction price not including maintenance. There's also the cost of the real estate and the foregone productive value (opportunity cost) of the space. Additionally, parking increases driving which worsens environmental quality, speeds global warming, drives our oil-centric foreign policy, increases congestion, weakens social structures, endangers pedestrians and cyclists, and rips apart the fabric of cities.

Currently, the elimination of a negligible fraction of parking spots is motivating certain Richmonders to oppose the GRTC Pulse. The opponents suggest spurning more than $40 million of outside investment that has the potential to expedite the core of our public transit system, appreciate property values, and lead to millions of more dollars in economic productivity.

According to a study by Eric Betz, parking covers more area of America than any other one thing. There are 500 million empty parking spots in the U.S. Pavement doesn't solve the parking problem. This cycle of more supply followed by more demand will persist because the difference between the fixed cost and the marginal cost is so dramatic, and because 80% of Richmond's population lives in the suburbs. Basically, the only supply-based solution is to pave until the destination isn't a place worth visiting anymore. Then parking will always be convenient!

The Answer

Changing supply is not the answer, especially when it comes at such a high cost to residents. Instead. pricing solutions and demand solutions are the answer. Pricing needs to be reintroduced into the market. In a perfect world, every spot except for one would be filled on every block. Meters with fluctuating prices can make this perfect world a reality thanks to technology. Furthermore, private parking options can't compete with highly subsidized "free" parking. If more spots had meters, private alternatives would be able to compete and would become more prevalent. Sure this means some parking decks and lots, but more importantly, home owners would sneak a spot into their back lot and some two car families would switch to one car. Most importantly, some would seek alternatives.

Which brings us back to BRT. As the price of alternatives decreases, people's demand will shift away from cars. BRT lowers the price of riding the bus because it's quicker, more predictable, and cool. This means more people on the margin will shift from cars to buses. How many? Estimates on both sides of the argument are close to useless because Richmond hasn't made a progressive transportation decision in more than 50 years.

Fortunately, subsidies from the federal government and state government have lowered the marginal cost of experimenting with BRT so much that it makes perfect sense to try.

VCU wraps up recruiting class with 2015 C Jonathan Nwankwo

Aaron Williams — Sat, 06 Jun 2015 14:40:05 +0000

Coach Will Wade added his fifth recruit since April 23rd on Friday evening with the commitment of former Minnesota signee Jonathan Nwankwo. A 6-foot-10, 240-pound center out of Mount Vernon, New York, Nwankwo is considered a high three-star recruit with high upside. Before signing with the Golden Gophers he was offered by Boston College, Seton Hall, and Tennessee. After de-committing, he received interest from a host of high-major schools and added official visits to Georgia Tech and SMU.

Nwankwo's initial contribution will be on the defensive end where he can block shots, rebound, and size up with almost anyone in college basketball. His body is college ready and he could see a small substitute role from day one. His post moves are limited and he doesn't have midrange jumper, but he can catch the ball, finish through about anything, and clean up the offensive glass.

Under Coach Smart, VCU usually boasted rosters with eight guards, one swing-man (Bradford Burgess/Treveon Graham), and four big men. Coach Wade's additions signal a strategic shift in roster construction. VCU has added two true centers to surround Mo Alie-Cox. Michael Gilmore and Justin Tillman, two of VCU's most talented players, will likely see more time at their natural power forward position—and this will be effective because of how much work those two have put in to developing their shooting.

Nwankwo is VCU's 13th and final scholarship for the 2015-16 season. VCU retained a strong core after adding Coach Wade, but the transfer of Terry Larrier and de-commitments of Tevin Mack, Jordan Murphy, and Kenny Williams III left quite a few holes. Coach Wade and his staff have done a remarkable job adding talent in short order. More importantly they've balanced out the classes and have put VCU in a position to be successful this season and in the future. October can't come soon enough.

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VCU adds 2015 SG Samir Doughty

Aaron Williams — Fri, 05 Jun 2015 03:20:52 +0000

Virginia Commonwealth University added 2015 shooting guard Samir Doughty on Thursday. A 6-foot-4 senior out of Math, Civics, & Sciences High School in Philadelphia, he's an athletic guard with a tremendous ability to score. Originally a commitment to St. John's, Doughty was granted his release when Chris Mullen replaced Steve Lavin in New York City.

The commitment is a huge addition for Will Wade this late in the recruiting season. According to Ted Silary, Doughty ranks 20th all-time in Philadelphia for scoring. He has no trouble putting the ball in the hoop using a combination of his size, athleticism, ball-handling, and motor.

During his senior campaign he averaged 24.9 PPG, 4.1 APG, 9.7 RPG, and 2.7 SPG while shooting 50% from the field— though his team finished 14-14 overall and a tough 2-8 in conference play.

VCU still has one remaining scholarship for the 2015-16 season. Expect them to add one more guard to mitigate the loss of Korey Billburry and Melvin Johnson after next season, or they could extend the scholarship to walk-on Torey Burston for one season.

View VCU's lineup here.

View VCU's scholarship grid here.

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Charges against Mo Alie-Cox dropped

Aaron Williams — Fri, 29 May 2015 15:33:14 +0000

Charges against Mo Alie-Cox stemming from an incident at Society Social Club in Shockoe Bottom have been dropped by Richmond's Commonwealth Attorney. The story was broken by the Richmond Times Dispatch.

The charges were based on a complaint by Morgan Ashley Kaye who claimed that Alie-Cox punched her in the face. Video evidence exonerated Alie-Cox, the charges have been dropped, and his record will likely soon be expunged. Alie-Cox would have had to appear in court on June 15th.

We have been informed by the Richmond Commonwealth Attorney’s Office they have determined that Mo had no involvement in the alleged assault and that the charges against him will be withdrawn. These actions confirm our knowledge and experience of Mo as an upstanding young man of the highest character who has represented our men’s basketball program and our university with exemplary leadership academically, socially and athletically. We look forward to watching him continue to represent VCU for the next two years as a member of our program.AD Ed McLaughlin

We are pleased that Mo can now put this allegation behind him. After speaking with Mo and gathering all of the facts on this situation, we believed and hoped that his name would be cleared. From the time we began recruiting Mo four years ago, he has always carried himself the right way with terrific grace and humility. We are proud to have Mo as a member of the VCU family and basketball team. We look forward to continuing to build on his outstanding career as a Ram these next two seasons.Coach Will Wade

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UPDATE: Is he a VCU Ram? (the roster is taking shape)

Aaron Williams — Sat, 16 May 2015 13:18:07 +0000

Update #4 -- June 5, 2015; 8:07 AM

On June 4th, VCU added scoring sensation Samir Doughty.

Update #4 -- May 16, 2015; 9:18 AM

VCU added junior college transfer Ahmed Hamdy Mohamed on Friday night. The 6-foot-9, 245 pound big man averaged 16.2 PPG (54% shooting) and 10.7 RPG last season at Lee College. He's immediately eligible and will be a junior. VCU has two remaining scholarships for the 2015-16 season.

— ∮∮∮ —

Update #3 -- April 29, 2015; 3:00 PM

On Wednesday, Coach Will Wade announced that rising-sophomore Terry Larrier has requested his release from VCU and he intends to transfer. He averaged 6.6 points per game and 3 rebounds per game as a freshman while showing flashes of brilliance in an up-and-down shooting season. VCU returns eight players from last year's A-10 Tournament Championship team and the Rams have added senior Korey Billbury and freshman Gerron Scissum.

— ∮∮∮ —

Update #2 -- April 15, 2015; 10:29 PM

On Wednesday night, Justin Tillman tweeted that he intends to stay at VCU.

— ∮∮∮ —

Update #1 -- April 13, 2015; 3:16 PM

On Monday, Jeff Goodman reported that Justin Tillman indeed intends to leave the VCU program and Jon Rothstein reported that Jesse Bopp has been hired as an assistant coach at Chattanooga.

— ∮∮∮ —

Original -- April 12, 2015

On April 2nd, Shaka Smart accepted the head coaching position at Texas. After years of consistency in the VCU roster, the past two weeks have seen a significant amount of turnover. With five scholarships available for next season, plenty of new faces should be joining VCU in the next few weeks and there's always the potential for more players to defect. So if you're wondering, "is he a VCU Ram?", here are the most up-to-date answers:

Position	Two Weeks Ago	Today
Head Coach	~~Shaka Smart~~ (Texas)	Will Wade (Chattanooga)
Assistant Coach	~~Jeremy Ballard~~ (Illinois State)	Rasheen Davis (Manhattan)
Assistant Coach	~~David Cason~~ (Texas)	Wes Long (Chattanooga)
Assistant Coach	~~Mike Morrell~~ (Texas)	Jamill Jones (FGCU)
Director of Basketball Operations	~~Jesse Bopp~~ (Chattanooga)	Casey Long (Chattanooga)
Strength & Conditioning	Daniel Roose (Texas)	Greg Goldin (Chattanooga)
Players	Sr. Melvin Johnson	Sr. Melvin Johnson
	Jr. Mo Alie-Cox	Sr. Korey Billburry (Oral Roberts)
	Jr. Jordan Burgess	Jr. Mo Alie-Cox
	Jr. Doug Brooks	Jr. Jordan Burgess
	Jr. JeQuan Lewis	Jr. Doug Brooks
	So. Michael Gilmore	Jr. JeQuan Lewis
	~~So. Terry Larrier~~ (UConn)	Jr. Ahmed Hamdy Mohamed (Lee College)
	So. Justin Tillman	So. Michael Gilmore
	So. Jonathan Williams	So. Justin Tillman
	~~Fr. Tevin Mack~~ (Texas)	So. Jonathan Williams
	~~Fr. Jordan Murphy~~ (Minnesota)	Fr. Samir Doughty (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
	~~Fr. Kenny Williams~~ (UNC)	Fr. Gerron Scissum (Huntsville, Alabama)
	Walk-On Torey Burston	Walk-On Torey Burston

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